Bubble Watch / Bracketology

[Bearcat9796]

I'd like to think the WVU loss will have nothing to do with whether or not we get in
it's supposed to be, "who'd ya beat?"
we can have enough good wins at 8 and 10 possibly, but I feel like 9 and 9 is a lock...
I do know this, as frustrating as they can be at times , this season is a lot of fun

[sedz]

We've had a thin margin of error since the end of non-conference play since we didn't pick up any quality wins. WVU may end up being a bad loss, but it won't be any different from the bad losses on most other bubble team's resumes. It could just as easily end up being a Q2 game though.

When it comes down to it, every game on the schedule is about equal in importance. Getting good wins and avoiding bad losses are both important. It's only our expectations that change. If we can get to 9-9 in the league, I think we'll be in really good shape and it doesn't really matter how we get there.

[D.A.H.]

Here is a new bracket from one of the more accurate bracket people out there -- he has UC as the last team in (a First Four game in Dayton)
https://bracketville.wordpress.com/bracketology/

Saw a couple others on Twitter that showed UC as a 10 seed. I imagine in the next ESPN/Lunardi update, UC will be in the "first four out" category.


We went from numerous people in the West Virginia game thread declaring season over to UC being VERY much still in the thick of things, with numerous opportunities to build on their resume. Next two games (Houston, Iowa State at home) are Q1 games and will stay that way barring either team absolutely collapsing. Game after is UCF who, if they stay in the top 75 in the NET (67 today), that is a Q1 road game.

the wvu loss leaves uc with a very thin margin of error, going forward. it didn't kill the season, but it sure as **** made the hill a fair amount higher to climb. it was a bad loss, esp. in blowing a late lead as they did.

[sedz]

The only real bubble game tonight is Virginia with a chance to add a quality win against Miami. UVA is coming off a big Q1 win at Clemson as part of a 6 game winning streak.

Kansas St could move back into the top 75 if they can knock of Kansas.

[GoBearcats31]

Remaining games by NET/quads (as of today)

Houston #1 -- Quad 1
Iowa State #11 -- Quad 1
at UCF #67 -- Quad 1
Oklahoma State #139 -- Quad 3
at TCU #36 -- Quad 1
at Houston #1 -- Quad 1
Kansas State #83 -- Quad 3
at Oklahoma #32 -- Quad 1
West Virginia #144 -- Quad 3

• Quadrant 1: Home 1-30, Neutral 1-50, Away 1-75
• Quadrant 2: Home 31-75, Neutral 51-100, Away 76-135
• Quadrant 3: Home 76-160, Neutral 101-200, Away 135-240
• Quadrant 4: Home 161-353, Neutral 201-353, Away 241-353

UCF road game is Q1 as long as they stay above 76 (UCF home win stays Q2 as long as UCF is within the top 75)
Kansas State needs to get inside the top 75 for this to improve from Q3 to Q2
Recent loss to WVU improves to Q2 if WVU can climb to 135
TCU home win will remain Q2 unless TCU can get into top 30

[GoBearcats31]

Here is a new bracket from one of the more accurate bracket people out there -- he has UC as the last team in (a First Four game in Dayton)
https://bracketville.wordpress.com/bracketology/

Saw a couple others on Twitter that showed UC as a 10 seed. I imagine in the next ESPN/Lunardi update, UC will be in the "first four out" category.


We went from numerous people in the West Virginia game thread declaring season over to UC being VERY much still in the thick of things, with numerous opportunities to build on their resume. Next two games (Houston, Iowa State at home) are Q1 games and will stay that way barring either team absolutely collapsing. Game after is UCF who, if they stay in the top 75 in the NET (67 today), that is a Q1 road game.

[GoBearcats31]

I think we're more likely to go 4-1 at home than 2-5 on the road but I'm certainly less confident in out ability to hit the magic # of 9 conference wins than I was yesterday.

They have 5 at home, 5 on the road -- though I grouped it as the four most winnable home games, and the six others (basically, I have more confidence in them upsetting Iowa State at home than I do Houston).

[Carthage World]

One thing to consider there is that the NIT finals has moved to Indy for this season and has entirely different invitational and game rules now.

https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball...rimental-rules

Didn't know about this. Thanks for sharing.

Intentionally targeting more high major programs and allowing them to host their first game will certainly make the tournament more profitable.

[Carthage World]

Here is the recipe for staying in the NCAA Tournament picture:

Home wins over: Iowa State (#10 NET), Kansas State (#81), West Virginia (#143), Oklahoma State (#144)

At least two wins from: home and away versus Houston (#1), at Oklahoma (#27), at Texas Tech (#29), at TCU (#30), at UCF (#72)


FWIW, UC dropped only one spot in the NET after last night's loss and WVU isn't far off from a Q2 L instead of a Q3 as it stands now.

I think we're more likely to go 4-1 at home than 2-5 on the road but I'm certainly less confident in out ability to hit the magic # of 9 conference wins than I was yesterday.

[Lobot]

I think maybe we pull off the 2 wins on the road. I just have a hard time believing we run the slate at home. The question that is looming is do we accept an NIT bid...again. I am inclined to say no. Don't really know what it gets us. And that is not acceptable. Everyone in the program needs to get that drilled into their heads. I am tired of the excuses...he's building, new conf, toughest conf, NIL, whatever. I really don't see how next year will be any better so something needs to change.

One thing to consider there is that the NIT finals has moved to Indy for this season and has entirely different invitational and game rules now.

https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball...rimental-rules

[hipal88]

I think maybe we pull off the 2 wins on the road. I just have a hard time believing we run the slate at home. The question that is looming is do we accept an NIT bid...again. I am inclined to say no. Don't really know what it gets us. And that is not acceptable. Everyone in the program needs to get that drilled into their heads. I am tired of the excuses...he's building, new conf, toughest conf, NIL, whatever. I really don't see how next year will be any better so something needs to change.

[GoBearcats31]

Here is the recipe for staying in the NCAA Tournament picture:

Home wins over: Iowa State (#10 NET), Kansas State (#81), West Virginia (#143), Oklahoma State (#144)

At least two wins from: home and away versus Houston (#1), at Oklahoma (#27), at Texas Tech (#29), at TCU (#30), at UCF (#72)


FWIW, UC dropped only one spot in the NET after last night's loss and WVU isn't far off from a Q2 L instead of a Q3 as it stands now.

[BearKatz]

Prior to the UCF, we had (12) games remaining. I figured to be on the safe side, we would need to finish 9-3 in the regular season. Also, I think (3) of those wins need to come against Top 25 Teams.

We still have (2) games against #4 Houston, (1) against #12 Iowa State, (1) against #15 Texas Tech, (1) against #23 Oklahoma, and (1) against #25 TCU.

If we can pull out (3) wins, I would think we're pretty much a lock. Also would need a few wins in the Big 12 Tourney!

[sedz]

... Our best wins are Eastern Washington and Georgia Tech. I was happy to see Georgia Tech knock off UNC last night, but a little disappointed that they only moved up 6 spots in the NET today. There's very limited help in our non-conference schedule. If Eastern Washington can run the table in the Big Sky, then maybe they sneak into a Q2 win and that'd be a small boost. Georgia Tech certainly has the biggest potential to help, but they need to start winning some more ACC games.

Torvik's Teamcast allows you to simulate the remainder of a schedule to predict NET ranking and seeding. If Eastern Washington wins out, it projects a NET ranking of 90 for them, unfortunately still in Q3 territory. Georgia Tech would only move up to 85 if they win out, since their remaining schedule is pretty weak. So I don't think we're getting any non-con favors.

The tool also lets you see the tourney odds impact of any single game (this is more for fun and not necessarily accurate). It thinks we have an 82% chance of making the field right now, which I think is a little optimistic. If we had lost to Howard our odds would be 41%. Without that BYU win our odds would be only 17%. Losing tonight would drop us to 67%.

https://barttorvik.com/teamcast.php?...nati&year=2024

[Cyclone792]

No insight, just a personal opinion. But I'd say we want at least 4 more quality wins.

UC is 3-4 in the conference. Let's say, hypothetically they go 2-0 versus WVU and beat Oklahoma State and Kansas State. That is 7 league wins and you avoided "bad" losses to WVU and OSU. To finish 9-9, that would mean 2-5 in the other games which could net out at 4-10 against Q1 opponents (or potentially worse if a TCU dropped out), and I am unsure if that is the best look if they were squarely on the bubble.

Then factor in a decent likelihood that they do not, in fact, go 4-0 versus WVU (home and away), OSU, and Kansas State, and you'd really hope to pick up a couple more solid wins. Though I would guess that splitting West Virginia with one extra high level win might actually rate better than sweeping WVU with one less good win. Seems like the Committee often puts more stock into quality wins compared to bad losses.

But if they go at worst 9-9 in the Big 12 with at least one win in the Big 12 Tournament--in my opinion--that sounds like enough (and surely that would include at least 4 good wins). But obviously everything is going to change daily.

I agree with your analysis.

My initial gut is 4-0 in the Q3 games and 2-5 in the likely Q1 games + one Big 12 tournament game win would be bare minimum. Certainly no guarantee, but it'd put us in the running for a bid. Going 3-4 or better in the remaining Q1 games would be much more reassuring, assuming we take care of business in the Q3 games. And taking care of business in those Q3 games is no easy feat either. Tonight is a good example; I expect a really, really tough game. Hopefully we can pull out the W.

Our non-conference schedule isn't doing us any favors. We had two quality opponents and lost both games. Our best wins are Eastern Washington and Georgia Tech. I was happy to see Georgia Tech knock off UNC last night, but a little disappointed that they only moved up 6 spots in the NET today. There's very limited help in our non-conference schedule. If Eastern Washington can run the table in the Big Sky, then maybe they sneak into a Q2 win and that'd be a small boost. Georgia Tech certainly has the biggest potential to help, but they need to start winning some more ACC games.