Bubble Watch / Bracketology

[GoBearcats31]

Warren Nolan's site is great for looking at resumes. The "Nitty Gritty" table lists quadrant records, and if you click the little paper icon by each team name it will bring up a team sheet that looks just like what the committee uses.

https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-nitty

Great resource, thanks for posting

Also...yikes! Howard has a 272 NET. That could have crushed UC's resume right there, had they not pulled it out.

[sedz]

Warren Nolan's site is great for looking at resumes. The "Nitty Gritty" table lists quadrant records, and if you click the little paper icon by each team name it will bring up a team sheet that looks just like what the committee uses.

https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-nitty

[sedz]

So we're looking at 7 Q1 games (with the possibility of @UCF dropping to Q2) and 4 Q3 over the remainder of the schedule.

Any insights on the minimum # of quality wins you think we need to obtain to feel semi-safe regarding our NCAA chances?

My general rule of thumb based on bubble profiles from the last half decade is that a .500 Q1/2 record with 2 bad losses puts a team right above the cut line. If you have no bad losses, you can afford to be a couple games under .500 in Q1/2. Of course there are exceptions, but it's a good quick reference point.

We're 3-6 right now with no bad losses, putting us just below the cut line as most bracketologists have us. We've got 7 quality games left and 4 potential bad losses with current NET rankings. So if we manage to sweep the Q3 games, we'd need to go 3-4 in the others to finish two games under .500 at 6-10 in Q1/2. That means a 7-4 record the rest of the way and a 10-8 conference finish.

I think the committee will have a tough time with the Big12 because so many games will be in Q1 and very few in Q2 (in fact all 7 remaining of our remaining quality games are Q1 right now). We will have 14 Q1 games and only two Q2 games. I'd hope that compares favorably to a team that racks up a bunch of Q2 wins, like Colorado, St Johns, or Memphis who have 5 Q2 wins each.

[GoBearcats31]

For what it is worth (and we do not need to repeat every time that he is not historically a great bracketologist), in his daily/semi-daily update, Joe Lunardi still has UC as the third team out. In other words, it would be in UC's best interest to win tonight on the road against a 7-13 opponent.

[GoBearcats31]

So we're looking at 7 Q1 games (with the possibility of @UCF dropping to Q2) and 4 Q3 over the remainder of the schedule.

Any insights on the minimum # of quality wins you think we need to obtain to feel semi-safe regarding our NCAA chances?

No insight, just a personal opinion. But I'd say we want at least 4 more quality wins.

UC is 3-4 in the conference. Let's say, hypothetically they go 2-0 versus WVU and beat Oklahoma State and Kansas State. That is 7 league wins and you avoided "bad" losses to WVU and OSU. To finish 9-9, that would mean 2-5 in the other games which could net out at 4-10 against Q1 opponents (or potentially worse if a TCU dropped out), and I am unsure if that is the best look if they were squarely on the bubble.

Then factor in a decent likelihood that they do not, in fact, go 4-0 versus WVU (home and away), OSU, and Kansas State, and you'd really hope to pick up a couple more solid wins. Though I would guess that splitting West Virginia with one extra high level win might actually rate better than sweeping WVU with one less good win. Seems like the Committee often puts more stock into quality wins compared to bad losses.

But if they go at worst 9-9 in the Big 12 with at least one win in the Big 12 Tournament--in my opinion--that sounds like enough (and surely that would include at least 4 good wins). But obviously everything is going to change daily.

[Carthage World]

Kansas St dropped to 82 after getting demolished on their home floor by Oklahoma. That game will be Q3 as it stands now.

TCU remains at 30 after their home win over Texas Tech. So we are still clinging to two Q1 wins.

So we're looking at 7 Q1 games (with the possibility of @UCF dropping to Q2) and 4 Q3 over the remainder of the schedule.

Any insights on the minimum # of quality wins you think we need to obtain to feel semi-safe regarding our NCAA chances?

[sedz]

Kansas St dropped to 82 after getting demolished on their home floor by Oklahoma. That game will be Q3 as it stands now.

TCU remains at 30 after their home win over Texas Tech. So we are still clinging to two Q1 wins.

[GoBearcats31]

The Georgia Tech win over UNC has to help the Bearcats a little. At 10-11, they are 134 in the Net. Maybe they can pull off a few more ACC upsets.

Georgia Tech now up to...128!

Weird resume. 10-11 as you point out. Wins over two current top 10 teams (UNC, Duke plus potential tourney teams in Miss State and Clemson). Beating them alone may not be a lot, but our margin of victory could certainly stand out.

[red_n_black_attack]

The Georgia Tech win over UNC has to help the Bearcats a little. At 10-11, they are 134 in the Net. Maybe they can pull off a few more ACC upsets.

[sedz]

Lunardi is ranked #98 out of 174 bracketologists who have submitted brackets in at least 3 of the last 5 years on bracketmatrix. He's below average. Palm is even worse at #142. The best performer is bracketmatrix itself, with the composite wisdom of the crowd outperforming any individual.

I don't think Lunardi's underperformace has much to do with the switch from RPI to NET. The team sheet concept is still the same as it used to be, just using a different ranking system that accounts for margin of victory. I think it's just that we are more aware of other projections than we were 10+ years ago. It's easy to get 98% right every year (which is what ESPN touts) even if you're clueless. Generally only the last four in are controversial. Even if you get all of those wrong, you still have 64/68 right, which is 94%.

[sedz]

Perhaps more than anything else outside of our control, UCF staying in the top 75 NET will be crucial. That essentially keeps a Q1 game from falling to Q3 (it will be a Q1 road and Q2 home game if they are top 75, or Q2 road and Q3 home if they are not).

[Lobot]

jerry palm in particular is always pessimistic about UC.

Purdue guy and we keep beating them.

[swilsonsp4]

Lunardi is 100% accurate ... five minutes after CBS airs the brackets and he's had a chance to scrub his latest version.

[Longtime Lurker]

jerry palm in particular is always pessimistic about UC.

[coach]

Byu a sixth seed at 15-5? Hmmm...I guess.