Baylor 1/7 8:00 ESPN+

[leeraymond]

+5.5
138.5 o/u

Vegas expects Baylor to win 72-66.

That sounds about right. Once a team gets into conference play, I do not look at the overall stats. I only consider the conference stats. After two conference games, UC stats are some of the worst that I have ever seen. In every traditional box score category except rebounds and steals, UC has a negative number. This is horrible. In three of four conference seasons at UC, Miller has had very unimpressive conference numbers.

There may be hope. Baylor's conference numbers after two games are very unimpressive as well. For instance, Baylor's opponents are outshooting it .391 to .353 (from 2), outshooting it .333 to .262 (from 3), and UC appears to be SLIGHTLY better at keeping teams off their offensive boards.

Let's be clear. Right now, this UC team stinks. After two conference games, only two UC players are scoring in double figures (Skillings and Mitchell), UC turns the ball over 13 times a game, it has a minus 4 scoring margin, it has a minus 1.5 turnover margin, and Lukosius is only scoring 6.5 points a game.

There are two really GLARING problems with UC's conference play so far; its opponents are hitting 18.5 free throws a game where UC makes only 8 a game. That is a difference of 10.5 free throws a game. Secondly, UC has a LOUSY bench. Between Thomas (who should be starting), Hickman (has only scored a combined 11 points against VU, X, UD, KS, and UA. Nine of those points came against X), Page, and Betsey, they are only scoring 12.5 points a game where Thomas is scoring 9 of those points. Excluding Thomas, UC's bench in conference play is only scoring 3.5 points a game. A team CANNOT win in the BIG XII with those deficiencies.

Here is another problem; Miller. It takes him forever to make adjustments. Maybe it is time to start Thomas and bring James in off of the bench and give James the green light to shoot the ball. Also, give the bigger Reed more minutes and stop playing Hickman until he shows that he can do what he was recruited to do; SCORE.

This UC team is in BIG TROUBLE. They may NOT have a roster that can truly compete for the championship in the BIG XII. I saw Houston destroy TCU last night. Iowa State has a pro-sized front line along with their three very active guards. Need I say more? With this roster, especially the bench, maybe Miller is NOT the recruiter that we thought he was. UC is not likely to get the win tonight. On the other hand, I hope that I am wrong.

[Carthage World]

+5.5
138.5 o/u

Vegas expects Baylor to win 72-66.

[Lobot]

Baylor is unranked but top 25 in both NET and KenPom.

The Bears have played a tough schedule with mixed results: blown out by Gonzaga, beat Arkansas by 5, beat St John’s in 2OT, lost by 15 to now #1 Tennessee, lost to UConn, most recently beat Utah by 25 and lost by 19 on Saturday at Iowa State.

VJ Edgecombe is a likely lottery pick (actually just fourth in scoring). Miami transfer Norchad Omier leads the way at 15.5 and 10.8 at 6’7 240.

UC played Baylor tough last January down in Texas and could use a W tomorrow. Kansas is looming on Saturday.

I just wanted to point out quickly that the Utah blowout was at Utah. I personally was not expecting that one.

[sedz]

Baylor has one glaring weakness. They don't defend the three point line well at all. Over 42% of opponent shots come from beyond the arc, and opponents convert over 38%. And 65% of opponent baskets are assisted - the 8th highest rate in the country. Plus the Bears aren't great on the defensive glass with undersized wings. They do force turnovers at a top 30 clip, but if we can take care of the ball we shouldn't be afraid to shoot the three and go after the rebound. Baylor has a top 20 offense, so we're going to have to score on the road.