NCAA Tournament and Bracket

[sedz]

So it turns out the SEC did deserve their reputation. They get 7 teams into the sweet sixteen. Texas A&M was the only one of 6 protected seeds to fall, but Ole Miss and Arkansas advanced from the 6 and 10 lines.

The BigTen and Big12 had identical performances, each advancing 3 of 4 protected seeds plus one team on the 5-6 lines.

Duke got in as the only protected seed from the ACC.

And that's it. Only four conferences are represented. If there is a loser it's the BigEast, whose lone protected seed St Johns failed to advance. But in general this tournament has gone close to chalk, which means conference pedigrees based on the regular season have held up.

The women's bracket looks similar. 6 teams from the SEC, outperforming their 5 protected seeds. The ACC advanced all 4 of their protected seeds. The BigTen advanced 3 teams, slightly underperforming their 4 protected seeds. The B12 has 2 teams, matching their protected seeds. And UConn advanced as the only protected seed from the BigEast.

And that's it, every team is from a major conference. Of course it's much more difficult for a lower seed to advance to the sweet sixteen in the women's bracket because protected seeds play at home. But the only non-P5 teams to win a game were Richmond and South Dakota St.

[sedz]

Crocker-Johnson is not a traditional big man. He's mobile, can shoot from the perimeter, handle the ball, and defend multiple positions. That makes him a wing. Mbemba is a wide body 5, but he only plays 17 mpg. He played 16 minutes against Maryland.

The strong, skilled bigs remaining that that you are talking about are mostly 5 star recruits. Derik Queen. Johni Broome. Khaman Malauch (or top 75 like Kohler, Ivisic, or Furst). Or transfers who had proven themselves at other schools and were very highly sought after (Goldin, Wolf, Toppin, Keita, Amari Williams). Florida discovered a diamond in Australian big man Alex Condon. There aren't very many bigs of that caliber, and it's extremely difficult for a team like ours to afford one. Most teams that don't have a guy like that opt for talent and mobility over bulk. Tennessee and Alabama play tall, skinny guys who run the floor and shoot. Arizona's 7 footer that you mentioned only weighs 225 and is skilled and mobile. Ole Miss and Texas Tech have undersized frontcourts. Purdue plays Kaufman-Renn at the 5 most of the game - he's a mobile 6'9 225 guy. That's likely the route we need to take.

How many teams are left (or made the NCAAT at all) who have unskilled big men? That's the only argument I have made here. Unskilled size is obsolete in today's game. If you can't find a skilled big, play skilled wings instead. They are easy to find. The remaining teams have multiple of them. They are playing all over the country and are affordable. And you can win with them in the frontcourt.

Really the only thing I care about is that you can produce. I don't care what size you are or what your natural position is. If you can score, defend, and rebound, I want you on my team. Give me guys who have a 4+ BPM. We can play two bigs, 4 guards, or all wings. If you have a roster of good players, you can compete.

[leeraymond]

What a finish in the Maryland v Colorado St game. Both teams fighting hard on the glass and hitting big shots.

I have to give it to you. You were spot on about Colorado State. That team can really hoop. However, they play with two big men in the starting lineup. I would not consider Colorado State as exclusively a wing team. Mbemba is 6'7" 250 and Crocker-Johnson is 6'8" 230. These are two big guys. They are somewhat short, but they are big.

Nique Clifford will probably get a good long look from the NBA. However, Maryland's size played a major role in the last 5 minutes of the game. Colorado State could not get much at the rim late in the game. To me, that was one of the keys to the game.

Colorado State, as a team, outrebounded and outscored Maryland in the paint. But it was the play of Maryland's bigs that really played a role. Maryland's big men went 32 and 17 where Colorado States's big men went 9 and 11. Also, Maryland hit two more free throws. This was a good game; played at a very high level.

If you look at all of the teams still left in the NCAAs, none of them can be considered all wing teams. However, Arizona and Houston play with undersized bigs in the starting lineup. Note that Arizona brings a 7-footer in off the bench who plays big minutes.

I do agree that in some situations, against certain teams, the all-wing lineup can be very successful. However, a team needs some big men to win championships. I predict that the team that wins the NCAA Championship this year, will have some good big men that play inside.

[leeraymond]

So the Big 12 should be glad that West Virginia was left out? Makes the conference look better?

No. That is not the thinking here. However, had WV made it past the first weekend, the BIG XII would have a 62.5% team survival rate going into the Sweet 16. That is well above any other conference.

Do not get me wrong, the SEC, by far, has the better teams still left in the NCAAs. On the other hand, I think that there so many very good teams still left. There is no one team that is a clear-cut favorite to win it all. Duke has a very good chance, Alabama could win it (with some luck), Auburn, Michigan, Florida, Purdue, Tennessee (with luck), and Houston (with luck) also could all win it.

Back to WV for a second. WV had 6 Q1 wins and did not even make the NIT (as far as I know). How could that have happened?

[sedz]

There is another way of measuring the strength of the so-called "Power Conferences" based on the percentage of the conference's NCAA Tournament teams that made it to the Sweet 16. If we look at the Sweet 16 in terms of the percentages of the Power Conference's NCAA teams that made it, here are the numbers: BIG XII: 57%; SEC: 50%; BIG 10: 50%; ACC: 25%; and the BIG EAST: 0%.

In other words, 4 of the 7 teams from the BIG XII are still alive; 7 of the 14 SEC teams are still alive; 4 of the 8 BIG 10 teams are still alive; 1 of the 4 ACC teams is still alive, and there are 0 teams from the BIG EAST remaining. I would say the BIG XII may have been slightly better than expected.

Here is the funny part. The BIG XII was looked at as the best conference in college basketball last year. However, only two BIG XII teams made it past the first weekend last year: Iowa State and Houston. This year, the BIG XII was looked at as only the third best basketball conference and 4 teams made it past the first weekend. It is funny how sports sometime produce weird results.

So the Big 12 should be glad that West Virginia was left out? Makes the conference look better?

[leeraymond]

So it turns out the SEC did deserve their reputation. They get 7 teams into the sweet sixteen. Texas A&M was the only one of 6 protected seeds to fall, but Ole Miss and Arkansas advanced from the 6 and 10 lines.

The BigTen and Big12 had identical performances, each advancing 3 of 4 protected seeds plus one team on the 5-6 lines.

Duke got in as the only protected seed from the ACC.

And that's it. Only four conferences are represented. If there is a loser it's the BigEast, whose lone protected seed St Johns failed to advance. But in general this tournament has gone close to chalk, which means conference pedigrees based on the regular season have held up.

There is another way of measuring the strength of the so-called "Power Conferences" based on the percentage of the conference's NCAA Tournament teams that made it to the Sweet 16. If we look at the Sweet 16 in terms of the percentages of the Power Conference's NCAA teams that made it, here are the numbers: BIG XII: 57%; SEC: 50%; BIG 10: 50%; ACC: 25%; and the BIG EAST: 0%.

In other words, 4 of the 7 teams from the BIG XII are still alive; 7 of the 14 SEC teams are still alive; 4 of the 8 BIG 10 teams are still alive; 1 of the 4 ACC teams is still alive, and there are 0 teams from the BIG EAST remaining. I would say the BIG XII may have been slightly better than expected.

Here is the funny part. The BIG XII was looked at as the best conference in college basketball last year. However, only two BIG XII teams made it past the first weekend last year: Iowa State and Houston. This year, the BIG XII was looked at as only the third best basketball conference and 4 teams made it past the first weekend. It is funny how sports sometime produce weird results.

[sedz]

One common theme is that you can't rely on forcing turnovers to carry you in the tournament. St Johns, Iowa St, Marquette, and UCLA force turnovers as their main identity (all top 20). They generally didn't have a great time. Good, disciplined offenses aren't going to turn the ball over no matter how much pressure you apply. You have to be able to score too.

Cronin has run into this problem almost every year. The one time he made a final four run was when his team was below average at forcing turnovers. UCLA was #254 in 2021.

[sedz]

This may be the future of the tourney going forward. These four conferences consolidated, taking quality programs from the non-power conferences, while driving the PAC out of competitive existence. With this consolidation comes even greater consolidation of funding. SEC schools (who are not operating alone in this endeavor) are pouring great gobs of cash into transfers, with lesser conferences and, to some degree, lesser divisions operating as farm systems (even more so than previously).

Prior to last night, the only non-P4 leagues with teams still playing were the MWC and WCC. Now, there are none. The Sweet 16 are all P4 teams.

This is affecting lower profile sports too. I watch gymnastics with my daughter, and the SEC has the top 3 and 9 of the top 16 teams. They are buying top athletes in the portal. Arkansas is #16 in the country and they didn't even qualify for the SEC tournament. The Pac12 used to be second best but top 6 teams Utah, UCLA, and Cal have been absorbed by other major conferences. There are only 3 non-P4 teams in the top 25.

[bearcatbret]

Summary of the Big 12 from the Saturday games. https://www.heartlandcollegesports.c...mO-oAyqQ105akA

[swilsonsp4]

So it turns out the SEC did deserve their reputation. They get 7 teams into the sweet sixteen. Texas A&M was the only one of 6 protected seeds to fall, but Ole Miss and Arkansas advanced from the 6 and 10 lines.

The BigTen and Big12 had identical performances, each advancing 3 of 4 protected seeds plus one team on the 5-6 lines.

Duke got in as the only protected seed from the ACC.

And that's it. Only four conferences are represented. If there is a loser it's the BigEast, whose lone protected seed St Johns failed to advance. But in general this tournament has gone close to chalk, which means conference pedigrees based on the regular season have held up.

This may be the future of the tourney going forward. These four conferences consolidated, taking quality programs from the non-power conferences, while driving the PAC out of competitive existence. With this consolidation comes even greater consolidation of funding. SEC schools (who are not operating alone in this endeavor) are pouring great gobs of cash into transfers, with lesser conferences and, to some degree, lesser divisions operating as farm systems (even more so than previously).

Prior to last night, the only non-P4 leagues with teams still playing were the MWC and WCC. Now, there are none. The Sweet 16 are all P4 teams.

[sedz]

So it turns out the SEC did deserve their reputation. They get 7 teams into the sweet sixteen. Texas A&M was the only one of 6 protected seeds to fall, but Ole Miss and Arkansas advanced from the 6 and 10 lines.

The BigTen and Big12 had identical performances, each advancing 3 of 4 protected seeds plus one team on the 5-6 lines.

Duke got in as the only protected seed from the ACC.

And that's it. Only four conferences are represented. If there is a loser it's the BigEast, whose lone protected seed St Johns failed to advance. But in general this tournament has gone close to chalk, which means conference pedigrees based on the regular season have held up.

[London 'Cat]

Dang! Maryland won on a buzzer beater.

Maryland was due a win on a buzzer beater. They have lost so many games on the last possession.

[bearcatbret]

Dang! Maryland won on a buzzer beater.

[sedz]

What a finish in the Maryland v Colorado St game. Both teams fighting hard on the glass and hitting big shots.

[sedz]

Alabama's offense is a thing of beauty. They attack the rim immediately, every play.