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Dayton 12/16 7:00 ESPN+

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  • #1

    Dayton 12/16 7:00 ESPN+

    UC (8-1) faces UD (7-2) on Saturday night in downtown Cincinnati at Heritage Bank Center

    NET: UC #25 / Dayton #45
    Ken Pom: UC #26 / Dayton #56

    Dayton's season so far:
    - 16 point win over SIUE
    - 5 point loss at Northwestern (currently #25 in the AP Top 25)
    - 3 point win over LSU in Charleston, S.C.
    - 7 point win over St. John's in Charleston, S.C.
    - 14 point loss to Houston in Charleston, S.C. (currently #4)
    - 8 point win over Youngstown State
    - 2 point win at SMU
    - 30 point win over Grambling State
    - UNLV canceled
    - 12 point win over Troy

    - Dayton is led by 6'10 junior DaRon Holmes who is averaging 16.3 points, 6.9 rebounds, 3.0 assists and 2.1 blocks
    - Pitt transfer Nate Santos, a 6'7 junior, is averaging 12.8 points, 6.9 rebounds
    - Leading the UD backcourt are 6'6 junior Koby Brea (11.8 points, 3.9 rebounds, 49.1% from three) and 6'2 junior Kobe Elvis (9.1 points, 4.0 assists)
    - 6 of the top 7 players in minutes (the only guys with substantial playing time) are third or fourth year players -- so definitely seems like they have experience and length
    - Flyers are 40.3% from three compared to the Bearcats' 35.6% on similar volume
    - UC shoots 72.8% from the FT line compared to UC's 70.5%
    - UC looks to be the better rebounding team and turns the ball over less


    Big resume game (Quad 1 if UD stays inside the top 50) with three 200+ teams to round out December before Big 12 play
    Tags: None
  • #2
    Honestly, I’d rather play Dayton home and home than play in that barn downtown.
    Fire Scott Satterfield

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    • #3
      The game against Dayton is a measuring stick game for Miller. Dayton has played a pretty strong non-conference schedule. UD has played four (4) Power Conference schools and are 2-2 against them. Over the three years that Miller has been the UC basketball coach, he has played ten (10) Power Conference schools in the non-conference and has played nationally competitive Houston (before BIG 12) five (5) times and nationally competitive Memphis four (4) times. Miller has an overall 5-15 record against these teams. That is a 25% win percentage. By the way, Miller has NEVER beaten Houston, Memphis, or XAVIER. Dayton is a nationally competitive team and has some very good players. Miller has been a head coach for a long time (over 10 years). It is time for him to start winning these types of games. This game is going to show us a lot about Miller. I hope the results are in Miller's and UC's favor.
      Last edited by leeraymond; 12-14-2023, 12:39 PM.
      • 4 likes

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      • #4
        Originally posted by leeraymond View Post
        The game against Dayton is a measuring stick game for Miller. Dayton has played a pretty strong non-conference schedule. UD has played four (4) Power Conference schools and are 2-2 against them. Over the three years that Miller has been the UC basketball coach, he has played ten (10) Power Conference schools in the non-conference and has played nationally competitive Houston (before BIG 12) five (5) times and nationally competitive Memphis four (4) times. Miller has an overall 5-15 record against these teams. That is a 25% win percentage. By the way, Miller has NEVER beaten Houston or Memphis. Dayton is a nationally competitive team and has some very good players. Miller has been a head coach for a long time. It is time for him to start winning these types of games. This game is going to show us a lot about Miller. I hope the results are in Miller's and UC's favor.
        Great analysis. Yes he needs to start winning some of these games & at a clip closer to 50%. If this doesn't improve well......

        Comment

        • #5
          Originally posted by leeraymond View Post
          The game against Dayton is a measuring stick game for Miller. Dayton has played a pretty strong non-conference schedule. UD has played four (4) Power Conference schools and are 2-2 against them. Over the three years that Miller has been the UC basketball coach, he has played ten (10) Power Conference schools in the non-conference and has played nationally competitive Houston (before BIG 12) five (5) times and nationally competitive Memphis four (4) times. Miller has an overall 5-15 record against these teams. That is a 25% win percentage. By the way, Miller has NEVER beaten Houston or Memphis. Dayton is a nationally competitive team and has some very good players. Miller has been a head coach for a long time. It is time for him to start winning these types of games. This game is going to show us a lot about Miller. I hope the results are in Miller's and UC's favor.
          Agreed-- The team must come out prepared to play. Dayton will be. UC must go beyond the hype and play a full game under control on the court. My hope that this game will be the springboard desperately needed for conference play.
          • 1 like

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          • #6
            Dayton has shot exactly 50% from 3 in each of their past 3 games (10-20, 14-28, 10-20). There is a way to slow down their shooters though as Houston proved when they held the Flyers to 4/18 shooting from deep (22.2%).

            This will be the main key to the game along with shutting down DaRon Holmes who is the best 5 man we've faced so far this season.

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            • #7
              Cincinnati, Dayton Renew Rivalry Downtown Saturday Night

              https://gobearcats.com/news/2023/12/...day-night.aspx

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              • #8
                Originally posted by Carthage World View Post
                Dayton has shot exactly 50% from 3 in each of their past 3 games (10-20, 14-28, 10-20). There is a way to slow down their shooters though as Houston proved when they held the Flyers to 4/18 shooting from deep (22.2%).

                This will be the main key to the game along with shutting down DaRon Holmes who is the best 5 man we've faced so far this season.
                Holmes is a load, but he isn't a true post player, in the sense that he hangs around the lane. He also brings the ball down the floor and facilitates for others. Holmes can shoot a little from outside (30.7%) but isn't as dangerous as Nate Santos (60.7%) and Koby Brea (49.1%). He also leads the team, by far, with 26 turnovers.

                Per barttorvik.com, the Flyers are elite at scoring from outside (#8 nationally) and avoiding fouls (#9). They have not been good at defending the treys (#268) or at defensive rebounding (#287). The Flyers also play at a very slow tempo (#358).

                UD have scored in the 80s twice, 70s three times, 60s three times, and 50s once (UH).

                Comment

                • #9
                  Has the line bet released yet? What does kenpom say?
                  "Chuck Machock's ties to UC go all the way back to when he played for the Bearcats. Who could forget the night he and Oscar Robertson combined to score 56 points against Seton Hall at Madison Square Garden (Oscar 56, Chuck 0)." -Dan Hoard

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                  • #10
                    Where can I pregame 5ish that wont be overrun with bengals fans?
                    Last edited by Bearcat9796; 12-15-2023, 05:18 PM.

                    Comment

                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Bearcat Bounce View Post
                      Has the line bet released yet? What does kenpom say?
                      Kenpom: UC at 26 Dayton at 57. I can't find a line on this game and that strikes me as weird.

                      The generally awful ESPN predictor likes UC at 66% chance to win.
                      Brent Wyrick
                      92 Final Four Front Row
                      @LobotC2DFW

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                      • #12
                        espn line UC -4.5

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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Bearcat Bounce View Post
                          Has the line bet released yet? What does kenpom say?
                          Most of the books have this as UC -4.5. FanDuel is an outlier at -5.5. KenPom agrees with the view of FanDuel.

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                          • #14
                            Does any one know if Reynolds will suit-up for this game?

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                            • #15
                              Originally posted by leeraymond View Post
                              Does any one know if Reynolds will suit-up for this game?
                              Yes. He's fully eligible and will dress. I would suspect that Miller will limit Reynolds' minutes to get his game legs under him.

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