Bubble Watch / Bracketology

[GoBearcats31]

UC is the last team in on the latest Lundardi update https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/st...ld-predictions

Some bubble teams to watch this weekend
Nebraska - Saturday versus Michigan (#103 NET)
Butler - Saturday versus Providence (#56)
Ole Miss - no game
Florida - Saturday versus Auburn (#7)
Mississippi State - Saturday at Missouri (#145)
Washington State - Saturday at Oregon (#56)
Seton Hall - Sunday at Villanova (#47 -- though according to XU fans, local media they may be #1)
St. John's - Saturday at Marquette (#11)
Wake Forest - Saturday versus NC State (#80)
Colorado - Saturday at Arizona (#3)
Nevada - Friday/tonight versus San Diego State (21)
Providence - Saturday at Butler (#51)
Xavier - Saturday versus Creighton (#19)
Villanova - Sunday versus Seton Hall (#67)
Memphis - Sunday versus Tulane (#118)

[sedz]

Interesting -- wasn't aware of their success. Agree, likely not enough...

Researching this team, interesting they have 20 players listed on the roster. It doesn't surprise me if a major program, especially a big state school, has a ton of walk-ons. But how did they get 20 kids? Also I noticed Zach Loveday of Gallipolis, OH averaging 2.8 points in 6.3 mins per game. The 7-footer transferred in after three low impact seasons at Baylor, where he signed as a 3-star recruit but was at one time a Top 50 recruit. Definitely seems like he had a lot of "potential" at his size but never was as good as the recruiting "experts" projected him...

I guess if you have 20 players you can run 5v5 in practice on both ends. That would be nice.

There are several other small conference teams with 3 or fewer losses: Indiana St, Grand Canyon, Princeton, Cornell, McNeese, and James Madison. Indiana St and Grand Canyon would have very strong at-large cases I think, and the others could if the bubble gets much weaker. Then there's Appalachian St, who despite having 4 bad losses, is 3-1 in Q1/2 including a huge win against Auburn. I'd much rather see these teams in the tournament than middling power conference teams (except UC of course).

[GoBearcats31]

I wonder if Samford could get a look as an at-large. They took advantage of their last remaining quality game last night, winning at UNCG. Samford currently sits at 19-3 with a 2-2 record in Q1/Q2 games and one bad loss. If they take care of business the rest of the way and lose in the conference tourney final, they'd be 28-4. But without a Q1 win, it probably won't be enough. Such is life for small conference teams.

Interesting -- wasn't aware of their success. Agree, likely not enough...

Researching this team, interesting they have 20 players listed on the roster. It doesn't surprise me if a major program, especially a big state school, has a ton of walk-ons. But how did they get 20 kids? Also I noticed Zach Loveday of Gallipolis, OH averaging 2.8 points in 6.3 mins per game. The 7-footer transferred in after three low impact seasons at Baylor, where he signed as a 3-star recruit but was at one time a Top 50 recruit. Definitely seems like he had a lot of "potential" at his size but never was as good as the recruiting "experts" projected him...

[sedz]

I wonder if Samford could get a look as an at-large. They took advantage of their last remaining quality game last night, winning at UNCG. Samford currently sits at 19-3 with a 2-2 record in Q1/Q2 games and one bad loss. If they take care of business the rest of the way and lose in the conference tourney final, they'd be 28-4. But without a Q1 win, it probably won't be enough. Such is life for small conference teams.

[GoBearcats31]

There is something called NIT Bracketology and UC is not on there -- let's keep it that way ... A win over Houston and/or Iowa State next Tuesday would be a great way to stay on the right side of things. https://www.nitbracketology.com/2024...cketology.html

[Carthage World]

Not too many big bubble games tonight. Colorado, Washington St, and Memphis will be trying to avoid bad losses. Oregon could pick up a borderline Q2 win at home.

Memphis has been struggling but they still have potentially four Q1 games coming up.

Very little movement in this morning's NET rankings with results going chalk last night.

As for tonight, Colorado St (NET #27) will be heavy favorites against a bad San Jose St team at home.

Dayton (NET #16) travels to VCU (NET #79) in a game that likely won't have bubble implications even if the Rams pull off the upset.

The one to watch tonight will be San Diego St (NET #21) @ Nevada (NET #48). Nevada has a 4-2 Q1 record and could leap over a number of bubble teams with a back-to-back Q1 home wins over the Aztecs tonight as well as New Mexico on Tuesday.

[sedz]

Not too many big bubble games tonight. Colorado, Washington St, and Memphis will be trying to avoid bad losses. Oregon could pick up a borderline Q2 win at home.

Memphis has been struggling but they still have potentially four Q1 games coming up.

[sedz]

Good catch sedz re: Creighton

Interestingly, Xavier beat Villanova and actually dropped from 48 to 50 in the NET. X will be an interesting team to track on the bubble. And they are probably better situated than Villanova, who is 5-7 in the Big East after starting 4-1 (and two of those early wins were DePaul).

Agreed, Villanova is in a tough spot now. They have three Q3 losses, so they're going to have to improve their 3-6 Q1 record. A win last night would have put them at 4-5 in Q1 and 7-7 in Q1/Q2. Missed opportunity and now their backs are against the wall. Xavier has two Q3 losses and just a 2-7 Q1 record. These are both fringe bubble teams, Villanova was only in 5 of 94 brackets going into last night, and Xavier was only in 1.

[GoBearcats31]

Good catch sedz re: Creighton

Interestingly, Xavier beat Villanova and actually dropped from 48 to 50 in the NET. X will be an interesting team to track on the bubble. And they are probably better situated than Villanova, who is 5-7 in the Big East after starting 4-1 (and two of those early wins were DePaul).

[sedz]

Pretty much all these teams won -- the exceptions being Creighton (who lost to Providence -- both on this list) and Villanova who lost to Xavier (who is also quite bubbly, so kind of cancels itself out in a way). So if anyone was looking for these bubble teams to take on some tough losses, last night wasn't really that night.

Yep, the bubble got a little stronger last night. Providence picked up a Q1 win. Seton Hall, Texas A&M, Mississippi St, Indiana St, and Gonzaga avoided bad losses.

Creighton was only on the list as a Q1 opponent for Providence, they aren't near the bubble.

Nebraska lost at Northwestern, which certainly isn't a bad loss but they are now 6-8 in quality games and just 1-7 in true road games. They've got four potential Q3 home landmines and three winnable Q1/2 road games left. They'll be feeling bubbly if they go any worse than 5-2, despite owning huge wins over Purdue and Wisconsin.

[GoBearcats31]

Tonight's biggest bubble game might be Providence, who is looking to end a two game losing streak and add a fourth Q1 win at home against Creighton. Seton Hall, Texas A&M, Mississippi St, Villanova, Indiana St, and Gonzaga are also in action.

Pretty much all these teams won -- the exceptions being Creighton (who lost to Providence -- both on this list) and Villanova who lost to Xavier (who is also quite bubbly, so kind of cancels itself out in a way). So if anyone was looking for these bubble teams to take on some tough losses, last night wasn't really that night.

[sedz]

Tonight's biggest bubble game might be Providence, who is looking to end a two game losing streak and add a fourth Q1 win at home against Creighton. Seton Hall, Texas A&M, Mississippi St, Villanova, Indiana St, and Gonzaga are also in action.

[sedz]

Nevada picked up a huge Q1 road win last night at Utah St. The Mountain West continues to beat each other up, with 6 teams now in the NET top 50, including 4 in the top 30.

Wake Forest won at Georgia Tech by 29. They are still looking for their first Q1 win but are piling up Q2 wins, now with 6.

St Johns and New Mexico each avoided bad losses, and Butler wasn't able to take down UConn. Clemson's big win at UNC keeps them far above the bubble.

Perhaps the biggest loss of the night was Michigan St going down at Minnesota. The Spartans are now just 4-9 in Q1/2 games.

Ole Miss came up just short after trimming a 17 pt second half deficit to just 2 at South Carolina. The Rebels are 4-5 in Q1/2 games so they can't get too comfortable.

[sedz]

With Tuesday's bracketmatrix update we're back in the field as the last team in, leaping over Providence and Colorado who each lost twice last week.

Lots of bubble action tonight, as Colorado, Nevada, Wake Forest, Butler, and St Johns are all in action, plus a bunch of teams in the 8-9 seed range that could fall to the bubble with a couple losses.

[sedz]

Do you think any of the NET relevance for last four in/out has more to do with too many teams from the Big 12 qualify per the NET?

I don't think that makes a difference at all. Two years ago, there were three teams seeded 11 or 12 from the Big Ten, and they all had at least 13 losses. Conference affiliation doesn't really matter, it's all about what your team sheet looks like. Those teams all had at least 5 Q1 wins.

The old BigEast once had 11 teams in.