Bubble Watch / Bracketology

[red_n_black_attack]

USA Today has UC as a 10 seed https://www.usatoday.com/story/sport...n/72469954007/

Lundari and Palm -- America's favorite bracketologists -- both have UC as second team out
https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/st...ld-predictions
https://www.cbssports.com/college-ba.../bracketology/

Notable about Palm's CBS bracket, is they list the NET ratings for the Last 4 In and First 4 Out -- and you can see just how important the NET is (not really)

Last 4 In: Michigan State (22), New Mexico (18), Texas A&M (50), Nevada (56)
First 4 Out: Oregon (57), Cincinnati (30), Seton Hall (66), Wake Forest (41)

Do you think any of the NET relevance for last four in/out has more to do with too many teams from the Big 12 qualify per the NET?

[GoBearcats31]

USA Today has UC as a 10 seed https://www.usatoday.com/story/sport...n/72469954007/

Lundari and Palm -- America's favorite bracketologists -- both have UC as second team out
https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/st...ld-predictions
https://www.cbssports.com/college-ba.../bracketology/

Notable about Palm's CBS bracket, is they list the NET ratings for the Last 4 In and First 4 Out -- and you can see just how important the NET is (not really)

Last 4 In: Michigan State (22), New Mexico (18), Texas A&M (50), Nevada (56)
First 4 Out: Oregon (57), Cincinnati (30), Seton Hall (66), Wake Forest (41)

[sedz]

In Monday night's bracketmatrix update we are the second team out, just below Colorado and above Richmond. The last four in are Washington St, Seton Hall, Virginia, and Providence. All of those teams have at least 5 quality wins (Washington St has 7), while we are sitting on just 4. And as noted above Kansas St will be joining the mix after picking up their 6th quality win. It's a crowded bubble right now with plenty of games left.

[sedz]

Kansas St moved up 4 spots to 79 in the NET rankings, which is good for us since they are closer to 75. But the huge Q1 win they picked up arguably makes their resume better than ours. They are now 6-7 in Q1/Q2 games with one bad loss (at OK St who is just below the Q2 cutoff at 139). So a mixed bag there.

Virginia demolished Miami at home to pick up another Q2 win, at least for now. Miami got beat so bad they fell 10 spots all the way to 72. But Virginia is on a roll and is looking like a clear ACC contender. Their next 7 games will all be Q1/Q2.

[red_n_black_attack]

The K St victory over Kansas last night should improve their Net ranking. It hasn't updated yet

[bfcain1]

But he tweets updates most days -- see link above (page 3) + the Big 12 breakdown was in another tweet

I didn't know that, thanks !

[GoBearcats31]

Lunardi hasn't updated since Friday, before the Texas Tech game. It will be updated tomorrow.

But he tweets updates most days -- see link above (page 3) + the Big 12 breakdown was in another tweet

[bfcain1]

Lunardi hasn't updated since Friday, before the Texas Tech game. It will be updated tomorrow.

[sedz]

Lunardi is fraudulent. If BYU continue at their current pace, there would be howling if the committee dropped them to a 5 seed. The Cougars have been a Top 10 team in both the KenPom and NET all season (presently #9 & #7, respectively).

K-State are being "considered" for what? Their metrics aren't close to good enough. No team with a #83 NET is being considered for anything but the NIT.

He must sit there and think to himself, "I can't believe that K-State's 22 results constitute their true strength. Why, the Wildcats won 26 games last season. They made that nice run in The Dance. They can do it again!"

BYU is just 3-5 in Q1 games. Their resume does not justify a top 4 seed right now.
Kansas St is 5-7 in Q1/2 games with one bad loss, which isn't much worse than other bubble teams.
Those teams are ranked appropriately. Lunardi isn't even ranking them different than anyone else. In the average of 85 brackets on bracketmatrix, BYU is a 5 seed and Kansas State is the 8th team out.

A couple years ago Rutgers made the tournament with a NET of 80. NET rankings are just a tool to sort a team's schedule into quadrants. Quadrant records are the most important part of a resume, rankings don't matter much.

[Lobot]

I'm going to try and get to KC belatedly. I would suggest others take a shot and show out at the Big 12 Tourney if you can make it. The all session tix are up there in price but single session tickets haven't gone on sale yet. UCATS has a travel package for those in Cincy.

[swilsonsp4]

Joe Lunardi has UC as his second team out https://twitter.com/ESPNLunardi/stat...09073914306786

As sedz noted above, UVA is a team to watch tonight. They are "last four in."

Lunardi's current Big 12 projections:
1 Houston
2 Kansas
4 Baylor
4 Iowa State
5 BYU
6 Oklahoma
7 Texas
7 Texas Tech
9 TCU
UC First Four Out
Kansas State "considered"

Lunardi is fraudulent. If BYU continue at their current pace, there would be howling if the committee dropped them to a 5 seed. The Cougars have been a Top 10 team in both the KenPom and NET all season (presently #9 & #7, respectively).

K-State are being "considered" for what? Their metrics aren't close to good enough. No team with a #83 NET is being considered for anything but the NIT.

He must sit there and think to himself, "I can't believe that K-State's 22 results constitute their true strength. Why, the Wildcats won 26 games last season. They made that nice run in The Dance. They can do it again!"

[GoBearcats31]

Joe Lunardi has UC as his second team out https://twitter.com/ESPNLunardi/stat...09073914306786

As sedz noted above, UVA is a team to watch tonight. They are "last four in."

Lunardi's current Big 12 projections:
1 Houston
2 Kansas
4 Baylor
4 Iowa State
5 BYU
6 Oklahoma
7 Texas
7 Texas Tech
9 TCU
UC First Four Out
Kansas State "considered"

[swilsonsp4]

Only once since the B12 had ten members, starting with the 2011-12 season, has a team with a 9-9 record failed to make the field. In 2013, Baylor won the NIT after posting a 9-9 record. Their OOC record was not good.

Only one other time did the B12 not have a team with a losing conference record in the field. In 2020-21, ISU, KSU & TCU were really bad, which allowed the other seven teams to finish no worse than 9-8. (There were some Covid-19 cancellations that year.)

[Bearcat9796]

A lock? Hardly. With 2 games with Houston, and other top 25 teams, we need to show a lot more consistency to get there.

I meant if we get there, we're in

[Oldtimer_UC_fan]

I'd like to think the WVU loss will have nothing to do with whether or not we get in
it's supposed to be, "who'd ya beat?"
we can have enough good wins at 8 and 10 possibly, but I feel like 9 and 9 is a lock...
I do know this, as frustrating as they can be at times , this season is a lot of fun

A lock? Hardly. With 2 games with Houston, and other top 25 teams, we need to show a lot more consistency to get there.