Iowa St. 2/13 7:00 ESPN2

[Lobot]

The Cyclones come to town in what is almost a must win if we're going to make the NCAAs. ISU is 18-5 and 7-3 in conference. They've won 5 out of their last 6 and the one they lost was because a buzzer beater was waived off against Baylor.

Iowa St. defends well, team rebounds and shares the ball. They also go fairly deep on the bench and only one guy plays more than 30 minutes a game. I'm not certain but I think this is the first time we've played the Cyclones under TJ Otzelberger. They've basically been a thorn in our side in non conference and tournament play for 20 years or so and I'm just glad this is at 5/3 and not Hilton Arena.

With ISU, you get volume shooting from the guards. Keeping Keshon Gilbert off the FT line should be a priority. Keeping Momcilovic of the 3PT line should be a priority. I would expect John Newman on him.

We're the better rebounding team but it doesn't matter much if we don't box them out. I'm guessing Wes will empahasize that in practice after yesterday. UC has a height advantage in the front court and needs to use it effectively in this game. Conversely, Iowa St has a height advantage in the back court and we're going to have to play effective half court defense on mostly taller guards.

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-ba.../stats/_/id/66

[red_n_black_attack]

I hate having a must win game against Iowa St; this is a great team and I honestly think we have a 30-40% shot at winning. This will be a good, hard fought, and physical game. Gotta make free throws, shoot well enough from three to open a little bit inside. Iowa St beat Houston in a low scoring affair in which they were outrebounded 32-25. The two biggest keys to this game will be rebounding and perimeter shooting, and the Bearcats should win the rebounding match.

[GoBearcats31]

UC leads Iowa State 4-2 all-time. The first meeting was in 1997, where UC got screwed by the refs late in what became the first of four consecutive second round NCAA Tournament losses. UC won neutral site games in 1998, 1999 and 2012.

UC hosted Iowa State in December 2015, where Iowa State hit a game-winning three pointer and UC missed three shots on the final possession to fall 81-79. UC did its best Crosstown Shootout impression, trailing 14-2 after 4 mins, clawing back over the course of the first, getting down 13 early second, then going on a furious run late to take the lead before falling short.

UC's last meeting with Iowa State was a 55-54 overtime slugfest victory. Gary Clark hit a shot late to send it to OT. Jacob Evans hit two free throws to give them the lead in OT. (Not sure why I misremembered and thought Evans hit a buzzer beater to win...) https://www.espn.com/mens-college-ba...meId/400916157

[GoBearcats31]

Iowa State is #10

If my research is correct (and probably is not), UC's Top 10 AP home wins this century:
- 2001: #8 Wake Forest
- 2002: #9 Marquette
- 2003: #4 Louisville
- 2004: #10 Louisville
- 2009: #10 UConn
- 2012: #8 Marquette*

Versus AP Top 10 opponents at Fifth Third Arena: 7-15, including the most recent loss to Houston

The last AP Top 10 opponent not named Houston to play at UC was Marquette on 2/29/12 when JaQuon Parker's 28 points fueled UC to the upset victory. Yancy Gates had 6 and 13, while Dion Dixon dropped 21 on their Senior Night.

[longtimefan]

UC leads Iowa State 4-2 all-time. The first meeting was in 1997, where UC got screwed by the refs late in what became the first of four consecutive second round NCAA Tournament losses. UC won neutral site games in 1998, 1999 and 2012.

UC hosted Iowa State in December 2015, where Iowa State hit a game-winning three pointer and UC missed three shots on the final possession to fall 81-79. UC did its best Crosstown Shootout impression, trailing 14-2 after 4 mins, clawing back over the course of the first, getting down 13 early second, then going on a furious run late to take the lead before falling short.

UC's last meeting with Iowa State was a 55-54 overtime slugfest victory. Gary Clark hit a shot late to send it to OT. Jacob Evans hit two free throws to give them the lead in OT. (Not sure why I misremembered and thought Evans hit a buzzer beater to win...) https://www.espn.com/mens-college-ba...meId/400916157

The 1997 game Darnell Burton was tackled, and they called a travel. He should have been at the line up 2 under a minute to play. The last meeting Iowa State was riding the longest home winning streak in the country, and UC snapped it.

[GoBearcats31]

Eric Rothman / Jess Settles on the ESPN2 call

[sedz]

Iowa St brings another elite defense to Fifth Third. They are ranked 3rd in overall defensive efficiency, but are only top 60 in one of the four factors: turnovers. They force opponents to cough it up on over 25% of possessions, the second best rate in the country. They're also solid defending inside the arc, where they block one of every 9 shots and hold opponents to 46% shooting. But they hang their hat on creating turnovers. Guards Tamin Lipsey and Curtis Jones have steal rates above 4 (indicating a steal every 25 possessions) and several more guys have steal rates above 2.5. We have nobody above 3.5 and Day Day is our only player above 2.7. Iowa St fouls a lot and gives up a ton of threes - more than 45% of opponent shots come from beyond the arc, the 13th highest rate in the country.

The key to the game on offense is clear - take care of the ball. We should be able to rebound against this team, but we have to get shots up to take advantage. We did a good job of that against Houston, so hopefully we can do it again. An early three point look is not a bad shot against a team like this.

Iowa St is very balanced on offense. They don't do anything at an elite level, but are top 100 in every category. Overall they are #32 in offensive efficiency. High usage guards Lipsey and Gilbert aren't efficient scorers but both sport assist rates above 25. They can score at all three levels, but Lipsey only hits 32% from midrange and Gilbert is just a 30% three point shooter. 6'8 freshman forward Milan Momcilovic is the only reliable three point threat, hitting 41% on 5 attempts per game. He's a true stretch 4, as he averages less than a rim attempt per game and is a poor rebounder. Wing Curtis Jones is also a shooter who takes 5 threes but only 1 rim attempt each game.

Defensively I think we need to back off Gilbert and turn him into a jump shooter. He's mostly looking to pass or get fouled, and we'll be better off sagging into the lane to cut off driving and passing lanes. I like Newman for that matchup. Day Day would then have the toughest assignment on Lipsey. Whoever is playing the 4 needs to be out on the perimeter with Momcilovic. That leaves Simas to cover Jones.

Torvik has us as 3 point underdogs with a 37% chance to win.

[GoBearcats31]

UC is a 1.5 point favorite

NET: #9 Iowa State / #35 UC
Ken Pom: #9 Iowa State / #33 UC *

* Offensive efficiency: Iowa State 44, UC 66 / Defensive efficiency: Iowa State 3, UC 20

[London 'Cat]

This is a must-win for UC. While UC has lost 6 conference games by a total of 22 points, those are still losses. And, very few impressive victories to offset those losses. They must take care of the ball, play solid defense and try to get Lahkin back on track on offense. Have not seen ISU play yet this year, but the numbers posted by GB31 seem like they are a solid team that will be difficult for UC to manage.

[Lobot]

This is a must-win for UC. While UC has lost 6 conference games by a total of 22 points, those are still losses.....

We're in the bottom 10% on the Kenpom luck factor chart. That's not helping either.

[Rufus]

We're in the bottom 10% on the Kenpom luck factor chart. That's not helping either.

The University of Cincinnati Bearcats live in the bottom 10% of luck. Do we not?

[GoBearcats31]

Originally had this in the bracketology thread, but wanted to drop in here...



Ahead of tonight's game versus Iowa State -- here is an interesting look at ISU and why they perhaps may not be as good as the "metrics" say they are. I also pasted a blurb in about UC.

https://www.insidethehall.com/2024/0...ruary-13-2024/

Iowa State has served as the poster child for those who want to rail against the NET, as the Cyclones made a habit of blowing out lesser opponents in the non-con, which boosted their quality metrics and, consequently, their NET ranking. Nine of ISU’s 11 non-conference wins fall in Q4, with the only exceptions a neutral court win over VCU and a home victory over Iowa, both of which sit in Q2. The Cyclones lost their two toughest non-league games, falling to Texas A&M and Virginia Tech in the ESPN Events Invitational. Big 12 play has given the Cyclones a chance to prove themselves though, and they’ve picked up four Q1 wins, another in Q2, and their only two Q3 victories. The committee has made a point of punishing teams with poor non-conference schedules in the past, and the reveal on Saturday will give us a glimpse of how this season’s committee may view such an approach to scheduling.


First Four Out:

• Cincinnati: The Bearcats held a second half lead over Houston but could not close the deal, so even with solid predictive metrics, they are on the outside looking in for now. Cincinnati is now just 2-5 in Q1 games and 7-8 in non-Q4 games with a poor non-conference strength of schedule. So, while they have “passed the eye test” in a number of close losses, the Bearcats need more quality wins starting Tuesday when they host Iowa State.

If UC can win tonight, the wins at BYU and Texas Tech plus home versus Iowa State would look very, very good -- and would probably trump those top victories of many/most others on the bubble. With the stats above (including the poor non-con SOS), you can see why the game is pretty crucial this evening.

[sedz]

Iowa State features the single best five man lineup in the country according to Evan Miya. The group of Lipsey, Gilbert, Jones, Momcilovic, and King allows just 0.73 points per possession and scores 1.25 against an average opponent. That's coming out ahead by a point every other possession. We're not an average opponent, of course.

[leo from jersey]

I dig that shirt Terry is wearing

[leo from jersey]

very messy game