Central Florida 2/17 4:00 ESPN+

[swilsonsp4]

Last night, UCF came roaring back from 13 down at the half to fall 90-88 at BYU. The Knights gave up 51 in the 2nd half but hung a massive 62 on the Cougars. UCF shot 28-for-45 inside the arc. They aren't a great outside shooting team (6-for 22), although they were uncharacteristically hot in the first here a few weeks ago.

Darius Johnson led the Knights with 20, with Jaylin Seller adding in 17. In all, 10 of the 11 UCF players who saw action scored. Ibrahima Diallo, the Knights' big man, played 19 minutes, scoring a mere 2.

UCF forced 17 turnovers, 4 of them by Aly Khalifa. They committed only 9 themselves. BYU outrebounded them, 37-32, but the Knights grabbed 12 off the offensive glass.

The Knights beat KS, WV and OU at home, and split with BYU. Their final three games are a gauntlet: ISU, UH & @ TCU.
I'm usually hesitant to call any game a "must win", but this one certainly is. The Cats need 5 wins to get to 9-9. If they can win the three remaining home games (OSU, KSU & WV), they still need to win two more. That starts with UCF. The other three are far from cupcakes (@ TCU, @ UH, @ OU). If UC can manage the remaining home schedule and beat UCF again, maybe they can pull a single road upset down the stretch. [I don't hold out much hope of eking one out in Houston.]

[bearcatbret]

This game worries me because it is a must win game as well as the next game against OK State.

[Carthage World]

UCF will have two starters back who missed our first match-up in 6'8 CJ Walker and 6'4 Shemarri Allen - both 5th year players.

[GoBearcats31]

We know Wes hates losing (though he and his staff have to fix some things), but do the players hate it too?

Massive game for the Bearcats on Saturday - seems like a "must win," as bearcatbret noted above.

[leo from jersey]

CWM said on his radio show "Vik basically needs to get his head together". Needs a good game. I say no time like the present.

[GoBearcats31]

Winning at UCF will not be easy. And I have heard multiple mentions of UCF playing tough at home.

Well, here is UC on the road in league play:
- at BYU (#14 Ken Pom) -- won by 11
- at Baylor (#13 Ken Pom) - lost by 3
- at Kansas (#20 Ken Pom) - lost by 5
- at West Virginia (#144 Ken Pom) - lost by 4
- at Texas Tech (#23 Ken Pom) - won by 3

WVU aside -- and that was probably their least "hostile" environment -- UC has beaten two Top 25 teams on the road and lost to two Top 20 teams by a total of eight points.

Not sure how UCF crowds have been, but this team has generally come to play away from 5/3.

[swilsonsp4]

Winning at UCF will not be easy. And I have heard multiple mentions of UCF playing tough at home.

Well, here is UC on the road in league play:
- at BYU (#14 Ken Pom) -- won by 11
- at Baylor (#13 Ken Pom) - lost by 3
- at Kansas (#20 Ken Pom) - lost by 5
- at West Virginia (#144 Ken Pom) - lost by 4
- at Texas Tech (#23 Ken Pom) - won by 3

WVU aside -- and that was probably their least "hostile" environment -- UC has beaten two Top 25 teams on the road and lost to two Top 20 teams by a total of eight points.

Not sure how UCF crowds have been, but this team has generally come to play away from 5/3.

Addition Financial Arena seats just under 9,500 for basketball. Prior to this season, UCF had sold out the place only once since they opened the facility in 2007. That was for an NIT quarterfinal against Illinois in 2017. About a quarter of the seats, comprising one entire end, are dedicated for the students. For B12 games, the Knights have drawn:

1/10/24 - KS - 9,469 (W 65-60);
1/13/24 - BYU - 9,137 (L 58-63);
1/23/24 - WV - 8,882 (W 72-59);
1/31/24 - Baylor - 8,683 (L 69-77);
2/3/24 - OU - 9,387 (W 74-63).

It appears that they still have several hundred tickets remaining for tomorrow's game, including midcourt sideline seats starting at $50 (+ fee, of course). They use Ticketmaster as their seller.

[sedz]

UCF is elite in many areas on the defensive side. They are top 25 in 2pt field goal percentage, turnovers, and blocks. They allow a league average 33% from three though, and opponents take 38% of shots from beyond the arc. They also foul a lot. Overall the defense is ranked 7th in the country on Torvik.

On offense they get to the free throw line and grab offensive rebounds at top 100 rates, but that's all they do well. Their effective field goal percentage is an awful 47.7% and they turn it over on more than 18% of possessions. They don't really have any guys to key on, since the four players with usage rates over 20 have effective field goal percentages under 50. Jaylin Sellers gets to the line over 5 times a game where he hits 85%, but he shoots under 31% from three on high volume. Darius Johnson and Marchelus Avery are both good shooters, but Johnson turns it over more than 3 times per game and Avery makes only 44% from inside the arc at 6'7.

In the first matchup, Aziz ended up guarding stretch 4 Avery on the perimeter in the first half, and it did not go well. Avery hit 4 threes and we got killed on the glass. We corrected that at halftime, keeping Aziz in the paint and forcing Avery to put the ball on the deck. Ideally we'll have the PGs harass Johnson looking for steals, Newman stay in front of Sellers, and Vik/Skillings chase Avery off the 3pt line. 6'4 wing Shemarri Allen is back - he's their best perimeter defender but usually a nonfactor on offense, so that's a perfect matchup for Simas. CJ Walker also missed the first game, but he's been pretty bad this year, with a negative box plus minus on the season.

We need to attack the rim like we did in the second half at home. UCF generally only has one shot blocker on the floor, with 6'7 Avery manning the 4 spot. If one big can occupy the shot blocker, Vik can get back on track scoring in the paint over a shorter defender or dump to Aziz/Jamille or a cutter if the shot blocker comes over. Our guards should not be afraid to attack. UCF's two rim protectors together foul more than 5 times per 40 minutes. It's ok if we have to endure a few rejections if we're also getting rim looks and free throws. We did a great job of that last time.

Player of the game in the first matchup was Skillings with 5 net points. Newman also had a great game. Those two wings got to the rim a combined 15 times and converted 11. Simas had 6 assists and only 1 turnover. Ody was the most productive player when he was on the floor, with a box plus minus of 17. He went 2 of 3 at the rim and pulled down 6 rebounds in only 11 minutes.

[sedz]

Winning at UCF will not be easy. And I have heard multiple mentions of UCF playing tough at home.
...

UCF has the 52nd best home court advantage in the nation per Evan Miya. Here are the rankings for the conference:

2 Houston
9 Iowa St
20 Kansas
24 BYU
30 Baylor
35 Texas Tech
51 West Virginia
52 UCF
66 Oklahoma
152 TCU
156 Cincinnati
172 Texas
193 Oklahoma St
283 Kansas St

As noted by GoBearcats31 we've already played very well in the top 35 environments, and same with #51 before a late collapse.

[swilsonsp4]

UCF has the 52nd best home court advantage in the nation per Evan Miya. Here are the rankings for the conference:

2 Houston
9 Iowa St
20 Kansas
24 BYU
30 Baylor
35 Texas Tech
51 West Virginia
52 UCF
66 Oklahoma
152 TCU
156 Cincinnati
172 Texas
193 Oklahoma St
283 Kansas St

As noted by GoBearcats31 we've already played very well in the top 35 environments, and same with #51 before a late collapse.

What are the bases for these rankings and over what period of time?

[sedz]

What are the bases for these rankings and over what period of time?

It's this season only, from https://evanmiya.com/?homepage

Only a general description is given, but I assume it's how much better a team performs at home compared to average projections. Usually there is a 3 to 4 pt advantage for home teams - something that predates advanced analytics as it has been used by sportsbooks for a long time. For example, Torvik shows a game tomorrow between #78 Yale and #80 Princeton. On a neutral court that game would be even odds. But since it's being played at Princeton, the Tigers are favored by 3.4 points in his model. Torvik uses the same home court advantage for every team (a 2.8% efficiency boost). EvanMiya seems to be evaluating how big the advantage is for each individual team. Houston is apparently winning at home by more than they would be favored on a neutral floor plus 3.5.

[GoBearcats31]

ESPN+ TV: Drew Felios and (again) BJ Taylor

[Gypo O'Leary]

Cincinnati needs to get Frederick on track. He starts hitting threes and the inside game will open up. Hard to see anyone else shooting with enough consistency to do it.

[Bearcat9796]

fwiw vik and cj were out 1st time we played them

[Carthage World]

UCF is 1.5-point favorites.