Oklahoma St. 2/21 7:00 ESPN+

[BearKatz]

Skillings is on fire!

[sedz]

I'm trying to recall this game because it was terrible and nothing went right. There was a buzzer beater involved here, no?

Yes, I remember it vividly because I was in the front row next to the student section. Tulane nailed a buzzer beater from half court after Gary Clark hit what we thought was the game winner. We didn't make a single three the entire game.

But we went on to make the tournament anyway (and beat Purdue) so it was easily forgotten.

[Lobot]

This would be more like the home game we lost to Tulane in 2015. Not sure how many people remember that one.

I'm trying to recall this game because it was terrible and nothing went right. There was a buzzer beater involved here, no?

[leeraymond]

Now why did you go and bring up Nevada before a must win game? Why Why Why? And yeah everybody remembers it.

Ha ha ha. Well Lobot, nobody wants UC to win this one more than me. I predict a win tonight.

[sedz]

This is the type of game that if UC loses, people will remember it for a long time. I bet you all the Jack Daniels in Tennessee most people associated with UC basketball still remember that NCAA Tournament game, against Nevada, where UC was leading by 22 points, with 11 minutes left in the game, and lost. A loss tonight would not be good for Miller's standing among UC fans and boosters. Hopefully tonight UC can display some sense of "killer instinct" and put Oklahoma State away early. Oklahoma State is 0 and 7 in road games this season. I guess the bottom line for this UC team is to just get the win, no matter how ugly. Hoping for the win tonight.

This would be more like the home game we lost to Tulane in 2015. Not sure how many people remember that one.

[Lobot]

This is the type of game that if UC loses, people will remember it for a long time. I bet you all the Jack Daniels in Tennessee most people associated with UC basketball still remember that NCAA Tournament game, against Nevada, where UC was leading by 22 points, with 11 minutes left in the game, and lost. A loss tonight would not be good for Miller's standing among UC fans and boosters. Hopefully tonight UC can display some sense of "killer instinct" and put Oklahoma State away early. Oklahoma State is 0 and 7 in road games this season. I guess the bottom line for this UC team is to just get the win, no matter how ugly. Hoping for the win tonight.

Now why did you go and bring up Nevada before a must win game? Why Why Why? And yeah everybody remembers it.

[GoBearcats31]

Today's numbers:

NET - UC 39 / Oklahoma State 123 - quad 3
Ken Pom - UC 37* / Oklahoma State 111
T-Rank (Bart Torvik) - UC 42 / Oklahoma State 105


* UC #74 adjusted offensive efficiency, #22 adjusted defensive efficiency

[leeraymond]

This is the type of game that if UC loses, people will remember it for a long time. I bet you all the Jack Daniels in Tennessee most people associated with UC basketball still remember that NCAA Tournament game, against Nevada, where UC was leading by 22 points, with 11 minutes left in the game, and lost. A loss tonight would not be good for Miller's standing among UC fans and boosters. Hopefully tonight UC can display some sense of "killer instinct" and put Oklahoma State away early. Oklahoma State is 0 and 7 in road games this season. I guess the bottom line for this UC team is to just get the win, no matter how ugly. Hoping for the win tonight.

[Carthage World]

-10.5

Gotta lay a beatdown in the manner that Vegas expects us to do.

[Jeff Burk]

I hope it is the same starting lineup as the last game.

[John P]

I’d start Reynolds and feed him as a starting place

I would love to see that too.

[Bearcat93]

I’d start Reynolds and feed him as a starting place

[sedz]

Oklahoma St brings in an offense that is very reliant on free throws and three pointers. They are #1 in the conference in free throw rate, and second only to BYU in three point rate. As I just pointed out upthread, our biggest strength on defense is preventing threes and free throws. So on paper, this is a great matchup for us. Make no mistake, this offense is not on BYU's level. While they chuck up a ton of threes, OK St only makes 31% in conference play. They also shoot under 50% from 2 and under 70% from the free throw line. So they're a bad shooting team just like us, but they're also the worst offensive rebounding team in the conference. As long as they don't repeat their performance against BYU where thy made 20 free throws and 11 threes, we should have no problem holding them near or under a point per possession.

6'3 guard Javon Small will be the toughest cover, as he can score at all three levels. Small is a 39% three point shooter on over 5 attempts per game who also gets to the free throw line more than 4 times per game where he makes 86%. I'm sure we'll have Newman on him. Another 6'3 guard, freshman Jamyron Keller, is coming off a monster game against BYU, putting up 20 points from the field on only 8 shots. His 8.3 net points nearly accounted for the entire 10 point OK St win. 100% of Keller's threes have been assisted this year, so we need to be aware of him off the ball. Big man Brandon Garrison also had a big game, scoring 14 on 8 shots plus 7 free throws. He's strictly a post player who doesn't shoot the three. 6'8 forward Eric Dailey is a rare true midrange maestro, converting over 50% on twos away from the rim. And he'll also step out and take a three. He'll be a tough cover if he's playing the 5, but he's had a rough month and hasn't played more than 18 minutes in the last 6 games. Undersized 6'5 forward Quion Williams is their best offensive rebounder. There are a couple of pure shooters - Jarius Hicklen and John-Michael Wright. I'd like to see the PGs or Fredrick chase them around.

Defensively, Oklahoma St gives up the fewest threes in conference, but that's not necessarily a good thing. They concede an astounding 58% on twos and only block one of every 18, both league worsts. The Cowboys also foul at the lowest rate in conference and force the third lowest turnover rate, indicating a defense that puts up little resistance inside. One thing they are good at is defensive rebounding, which is what keeps their overall defensive efficiency from coming in dead last. There's no reason to be putting up threes in this game. I'd even suggest turning down open looks (except for CJ) and instead taking advantage of every opportunity to drive.

Torvik predicts a 73-64 win and an 81% chance of victory.

[Corporateballa]

Pound the ball inside early and often. Not the game to settle for 3's, make them guard you. Simple game plan for this one.

Pound it inside to who?

[sedz]

ESPN+ TV: Eric Rothman and Bryndon Manzer

Manzer seems to have played two seasons at Oklahoma State in the 90s under Eddie Sutton.

So that is two straight games with the ESPN+ analyst being an alum of UC's opponent and--having played the last two home games on ESPN and ESPN2--this also makes it the second straight home ESPN+ broadcast with the analyst being an alum (BJ Taylor, UCF for both)

I actually like that. Homers don't bother me. I'd rather hear a different perspective from another team's homer. It's just guys talking. Bad takes don't affect our team, and every now and then you'll get an interesting unfiltered nugget that we wouldn't get from inside our own fan bubble or from observers that are holding back to appear neutral.