Houston 2/27 7:00 ESPN2

[SKell82155]

Assuming, for the sake of argument, that this is true, what's the solution?

According to Leo, CWM has to find a way to
make the players less anxious & fearful.
Maybe meditation , massage therapy
or cannabis or something ?

[sedz]

I do not know about that one man. UC has scored 454 points in the first half (conference) and their opponents have scored 492 points. That is a difference of 38 points. If you account for the UCF game, what about the other 26 points? Besides, a team needs only to outscore an opponent by 1 to win. UC is only being outscored by 3 in the first halves of games. A difference of one point can cause a team to lose or win. Like you mentioned before, UC is just not good enough.

Also, what do you think about all of the different UC lineups that Miller employs in games?

Right, you remove the UCF game and we're being outscored by 26 points in the first half. I don't know the exact totals, but you mentioned our average margin is zero in the second half. Remove the UCF game and we're being outscored by about 23 in the second half. So both halves are about the same if you remove the UCF outlier. My point in all this is looking at individual segments (whether opening 4 minutes, halves, or anything less than a full game) is mostly random variation that evens out over a season. What really matters is our overall efficiency. We're a top 50 team, but not top 30-ish where we need to be. That's what it boils down to.

I would like to see more consistent lineups. Cronin ran a distinct second group in 2011 that was sometimes called the goon squad. I think we could do that with the depth we have now. We don't have much offensive chemistry, and creating two groups that play a lot together could help. Miller has always had deep teams with lots of subbing though. His UNCG teams were like that too.

It's hard to say what our best lineup is though. Sometimes two bigs gets us in trouble against a quick stretch 4. Our PGs and Skillings aren't efficient scorers, and Newman/Aziz don't do much on offense. It's hard to score when three of them are on the floor at the same time, but we don't have much choice. Vik, Simas, and Jamille are the only guys capable of producing consistent efficient offense. We haven't tried them on the floor all together much, but I would try it.

Jizzle/Simas/Skillings/Vik/Jamille is probably our best offensive lineup. Then the defensive goon squad would be Day Day/Newman/Reed/Ody/Aziz. That lineup would struggle to put up 40 points against anyone. So we'd have to mix it up. Jizzle and Skillings are both one man shows on offense, so maybe try throwing them out there with three high energy defenders? So starters Day Day/Simas/Newman/Vik/Jamille, reserve unit Jizzle/Skillings/Reed/Ody/Aziz.

It's tough to piece something good together. Lots of one dimensional players.

[leeraymond]

That scoring disparity between halves in conference is almost entirely due to the UCF home game. We were outscored by 12 in the first half, but outscored them by 23 in the second. A 35 point difference, or more than 2 points per game over the conference schedule. This is a situation where the average doesn't tell you much about frequency because of an outlier.

I do not know about that one man. UC has scored 454 points in the first half (conference) and their opponents have scored 492 points. That is a difference of 38 points. If you account for the UCF game, what about the other 26 points? Besides, a team needs only to outscore an opponent by 1 to win. UC is only being outscored by 3 in the first halves of games. A difference of one point can cause a team to lose or win. Like you mentioned before, UC is just not good enough.

Also, what do you think about all of the different UC lineups that Miller employs in games?

[sedz]

That scoring disparity between halves in conference is almost entirely due to the UCF home game. We were outscored by 12 in the first half, but outscored them by 23 in the second. A 35 point difference, or more than 2 points per game over the conference schedule. This is a situation where the average doesn't tell you much about frequency because of an outlier.

[leeraymond]

My complaint wouldn't be that they lost to the #1 team on the road. I expected a loss. It would be that they have lost 5 of their last 6 inlcuding to the only 2 teams behind them in the standings. I would like to think that with the fact that they played Houston to a close loss at their place that if they could carry that somewhat positive outcome (moral victory) forward and should be able to beat K State at home on Saturday. But based on the wildly inconsistent peformance of this team all year I have little confidence they will perform well in their next game or the next 3 for that matter. That's what makes it so maddening.

Hey, I am with you on this one Gmann. Matter of fact, UC has lost 6 of its last 8 and has also lost 5 conference home games (2-5 at home in conference). To me, the big issue is not so much slow or fast starts. The issue is UC is being OUTSCORED in the FIRST HALF in the conference (33-30). In the second half, UC is basically playing teams even in the conference (36-36). Also, UC has all types of problems holding leads once it gets them.

One of UC problems, since Miller has been coach, is the constantly changing lineups during the game. Check this out. I went back and looked at the Houston game. I came in about the 12 minute mark of the 1st half. Houston was up 14 to 4. From that particular point in the game to the end of the game, I counted 22 DIFFERENT LINEUPS (combinations of players) that Miller employed. There were 16 different UC lineups in the second half alone. I am not sure what that means, but my first thought was how can a player get comfortable or get in a rhythm if he plays with a different group of players every time he is on the floor? How does a player get to know the tendencies of teammates when he is playing with a different group every time? No lie, I counted 22 different combinations of players. How can a team win like that. Houston subbed some during the game, but not like Cincinnati. Just about every timeout, Miller changes the lineups. I wonder what would happen if Miller decided on a core group of players and basically played with that group for the entire game. We will never know.

What is it with Miller? He has done this now for three years. What is he searching for with all of the different lineups? Last night, the worse lineup that I measured featured Dan Skillings, Aziz, Simas, Newman, and Thomas at the beginning of the 2nd half. That particular lineup gave up a 12 to 4 run that pushed Houston's lead out of reach. Here is the weird thing. UC outscored Houston in the second half 42 to 41. However, it was the first half where the game was lost. Just like the averages predicted.

The second most important three game stretch is coming up. The most important three games are the three ranked wins. If Cincy can take the home games, the last road game, and win one in the conference tourney, that would be 20 wins on the season. That may be enough to go Dancing. By the way, there are two REVENGE GAMES left (Oklahoma and West Virginia). UC cannot let these two teams beat them twice in a season. Let's face it. This is a lousy team. However, they can turn their season around (somewhat) with three wins to end the season. Any bets on how UC will finish the season?

[swilsonsp4]

which directly led to two losses. In the past we have started slow and came back to win too.

Assuming, for the sake of argument, that this is true, what's the solution?

[leo from jersey]

which directly led to two losses. In the past we have started slow and came back to win too.

[sedz]

The score graphs are all available for everyone to look at. No need to rely on memory or accuse anyone of not paying attention. I'll define a fast start as a 5+ point margin in the first 4 minutes. We've played 17 "good" teams. In those we've had 7 fast starts (UCF x 2, OK St, TTU, West Virginia, Oklahoma, Dayton), 7 slow starts (Xavier, Texas, TCU x 2, Kansas, Houston x 2), and 3 middling starts (BYU, Baylor, Iowa St).

Quite simply, we are not a notoriously slow starting team. It doesn't happen over and over. It's evenly distributed. We only think it happens all the time because we focus on the negative and it just happened twice in a row.

[leo from jersey]

I would give you a typical Cincinnati response that I personally heard in a conversation with this man. It was 1973 and I was talking to our local sports hero Pete Rose. He had on two World series rings. I said nice rings. Pete quickly shot back - both losers. It is time to beat the stuffing out of Houston and not be happy with others having lost too. We are not other teams. We are the Bearcats in case the last few seasons have fogged our memory. I don't know Chuck.

[longtimefan]

My complaint wouldn't be that they lost to the #1 team on the road. I expected a loss. It would be that they have lost 5 of their last 6 inlcuding to the only 2 teams behind them in the standings. I would like to think that with the fact that they played Houston to a close loss at their place that if they could carry that somewhat positive outcome (moral victory) forward and should be able to beat K State at home on Saturday. But based on the wildly inconsistent peformance of this team all year I have little confidence they will perform well in their next game or the next 3 for that matter. That's what makes it so maddening.

The season has gone pretty much as I expected, though I hoped for better. Kenyon Martin isn’t there, Steve Logan isn’t there. This is a team of decent but not great talent, they’ve played over their heads in a few games, stunk it up in a few, and overall are just about where they’re supposed to be.

[Gmann]

My complaint wouldn't be that they lost to the #1 team on the road. I expected a loss. It would be that they have lost 5 of their last 6 inlcuding to the only 2 teams behind them in the standings. I would like to think that with the fact that they played Houston to a close loss at their place that if they could carry that somewhat positive outcome (moral victory) forward and should be able to beat K State at home on Saturday. But based on the wildly inconsistent peformance of this team all year I have little confidence they will perform well in their next game or the next 3 for that matter. That's what makes it so maddening.

[sedz]

Like this?

We need to look for outlet passes to take pressure off the backcourt after a rebound. There's no risk for Houston going after steals if we're not looking to attack.

Outlet pass, not home run pass.

[Oldtimer_UC_fan]

I don't think we're seeing slow starts over and over. It's happened the last two games, so we're talking about it. But we jumped out to huge early leads at UCF and against OK St. We were within 5 points of Iowa St for the first 18 minutes. We were up 9 at Texas Tech after 6 minutes. We had a 5 point lead at West Virginia after 4 minutes. A 9 point lead after 4 minutes at home against UCF. An early 5 point lead against Oklahoma. A 5-0 start against Dayton.

Short term issues are hot topics for fans. But many of them revert to averages over the course of a season.

If you don't notice the slow starts over and over since the beginning of the season, you aren't paying attention.

[leo from jersey]

All I know is this, we played the #1 team on the road, and it was a two possession game under a minute to go. There is nothing to complain about there.

How other teams lost at Houston:
West Virginia 89-55
Texas Tech 79-54
UCF 57-42
K-State 74-52
OK-State 79-63
Texas 82-61
Iowa State 73-65

ISU and UC had the closest margins there. Nobody else even close. So I guess the complaint is that we couldn’t beat #1 on the road.

well, a good first 4 minutes may have led to a victory which nobody would complain about. We don't need a participation trophy. You try to twist words when you have no response to the statements previously made. I am speculating that you never took basic debating 101 at UC. It is like you have a script and can't take a detour from it or in a game change your plan on the spot (react to the current situation). Doubletalk my friend is as bad as a double dribble. The ball goes to your opponent.

[longtimefan]

All I know is this, we played the #1 team on the road, and it was a two possession game under a minute to go. There is nothing to complain about there.

How other teams lost at Houston:
West Virginia 89-55
Texas Tech 79-54
UCF 57-42
K-State 74-52
OK-State 79-63
Texas 82-61
Iowa State 73-65

ISU and UC had the closest margins there. Nobody else even close. So I guess the complaint is that we couldn’t beat #1 on the road.