NIT picking

[leo from jersey]

Unfortunately I can't filter advanced player stats by last 10 games on the free site I use (Torvik) and I don't feel like calculating it myself. I can filter team stats, and we have a 17% turnover rate in the last 10 games, exactly at the national average.

Stats of any kind for individuals are never going to give a complete picture of team performance - best to stick to team stats for that. But they're a good tool for answering questions like "is Simas a good ballhandler?" I think advanced stats are more reliable than notoriously fickle human memory.

again many variables in a game and that is why we play it. Thanks though/

[sedz]

It is hard to bring value sitting on the bench due to lack of hustle etc. Sedz it would be interesting to see stats from say the last 10 games. I still say there are more things causing a turnover(Teammate out of position, half effort, no communication, no help by screens and other things) and an assist than just the end number. To me, that is called Basketball. It is still supposed to be a team game although I see less and less of that.

Unfortunately I can't filter advanced player stats by last 10 games on the free site I use (Torvik) and I don't feel like calculating it myself. I can filter team stats, and we have a 17% turnover rate in the last 10 games, exactly at the national average.

Stats of any kind for individuals are never going to give a complete picture of team performance - best to stick to team stats for that. But they're a good tool for answering questions like "is Simas a good ballhandler?" I think advanced stats are more reliable than notoriously fickle human memory.

[leo from jersey]

Rate stats give a different picture. They provide more possession based context than aggregate/counting stats. Assist rate is the percentage of baskets made by teammates that were assisted by a player. Turnover rate is the number of turnovers committed per possession divided by usage rate. A player who shoots and assists a lot will have a lower turnover rate than a player who doesn't contribute offensively even if they have the same number of turnovers. It's intended to indicate a player's portion of the team's turnover rate.

Here are the rates on our team: (Assist rate / turnover rate)
Skillings: 11 / 14
Lukosius: 18 / 20
Thomas: 23 / 20
Newman: 11 / 17
Lakhin: 15 / 15
James: 21 / 14
Bandaogo: 4 / 18
Reynolds: 4 / 22

Simas turns it over quite a bit at 20%. The national average is 17% and top offenses are around 14%. Jizzle, Dan, and Vik are the only guys who are good at taking care of the ball relative to their role. Simas is a good creator as a non-PG though. These numbers show the value good Vik brings on the offensive end, both as a creator and taking care of the ball.

It is hard to bring value sitting on the bench due to lack of hustle etc. Sedz it would be interesting to see stats from say the last 10 games. I still say there are more things causing a turnover(Teammate out of position, half effort, no communication, no help by screens and other things) and an assist than just the end number. To me, that is called Basketball. It is still supposed to be a team game although I see less and less of that.

[sedz]

The ballhandling skills of Simas Lukosius are not really bad. Here's where each major contributor stands in assist/turnover ratio:

Skillings: 53/56 (.946)
Lukosius: 102/67 (1.522)
Thomas: 116/74 (1.568)
Newman: 65/51 (1.275)
Lakhin: 48/36 (1.333)
James: 71/40 (1.775)
Bandaogo: 16/28 (.571)
Reynolds: 9/29 (.310) [Has played in 27 games, averaging 14 minutes, and has only 9 assists; ball goes into post, ball never comes out]

Rate stats give a different picture. They provide more possession based context than aggregate/counting stats. Assist rate is the percentage of baskets made by teammates that were assisted by a player. Turnover rate is the number of turnovers committed per possession divided by usage rate. A player who shoots and assists a lot will have a lower turnover rate than a player who doesn't contribute offensively even if they have the same number of turnovers. It's intended to indicate a player's portion of the team's turnover rate.

Here are the rates on our team: (Assist rate / turnover rate)
Skillings: 11 / 14
Lukosius: 18 / 20
Thomas: 23 / 20
Newman: 11 / 17
Lakhin: 15 / 15
James: 21 / 14
Bandaogo: 4 / 18
Reynolds: 4 / 22

Simas turns it over quite a bit at 20%. The national average is 17% and top offenses are around 14%. Jizzle, Dan, and Vik are the only guys who are good at taking care of the ball relative to their role. Simas is a good creator as a non-PG though. These numbers show the value good Vik brings on the offensive end, both as a creator and taking care of the ball.

[DesertFog]

So if the game is on ESPN+ does that mean that it will likely start on time? I am really annoyed when the tip off is late.

[swilsonsp4]

This is a perfect game for the "old" Vik at the 5. Avila won't know what to do witth him. But, contrary to CWM's denial, something is amiss betwen him and Vik. Miller has his favorites and plays them. Lukosius, for example. He's a decent shooter (had a couple of hot games offensively) but he's one dimensional. You want him on the FT line, but, he has no handles. He sees the floor well, but that's not good if you get stripped before you get a pass off. And he's not a good defender. That being said, you need him on the floor because he's a volume 3 shooter that requires a defender outdide the arc.You'll rarely see him in the paint which is obvious by his lack of rebounds. Vik showed last year and the beginning of this year (before Aziz and Reynolds)that he is very capable at the 5. Just tell him not to shoot more than 2 or 3 3's, and then only if wide open at the top of the key (his spot). Reynolds may see some back to the basket time, too, to get some Avila fouls. We'll need perimeter D, for sure. Home court advantage may play a bigger factor in Terre Haute because the whole town shows up for their games - not to mention The Sycamores are playing with a big chip on their shoulder since being rejected by the NCAA. Thankfully the game won't be on ESPN+
Go Cats!!!

The ballhandling skills of Simas Lukosius are not really bad. Here's where each major contributor stands in assist/turnover ratio:

Skillings: 53/56 (.946)
Lukosius: 102/67 (1.522)
Thomas: 116/74 (1.568)
Newman: 65/51 (1.275)
Lakhin: 48/36 (1.333)
James: 71/40 (1.775)
Bandaogo: 16/28 (.571)
Reynolds: 9/29 (.310) [Has played in 27 games, averaging 14 minutes, and has only 9 assists; ball goes into post, ball never comes out]

[GoBearcats31]

CBSSports.com is showing ISU as a 2.5 point favorite.

Game notes have Mike Corey and Fran Fraschilla on the call. Fran = big Jizzle James guy.

[bba_1979]

ESPN.com shows the ESPN games are also on ESPN+. That’s UC and OSU. The other 2 games are on ESPN2, but not +.
https://www.espn.com/watch/schedule/...tDate/20240326

[sedz]

Indiana State notable games:
- Won by 30 against Saint Mary-of-the-Woods (seriously?)

It's a local college in Terre Haute. A lot of teams play games like this (NKU schedules two area non-D1 schools every year). It's a good way to get some exposure for those institutions. No need to take a shot at them.

[GoBearcats31]

Ken Pom: UC #38 (82 offensive efficiency, 15 defensive efficiency) // Indiana State: #40 (18 and 102)

Indiana State notable games:
- Won by 30 against Saint Mary-of-the-Woods (seriously?)
- Lost by 22 at Alabama
- Went 3-0 in something called the Dawgs Classic with wins over Rice, Pepperdine, Toledo (shout out to Flo TV
- Won by at 8 Bradley, who UC just beat
- Lost by 12 at Michigan State
- Went 2-0 versus UIC and Evansville, who UC beat in the first and last games of the non-conference slate
- Went 19-4 in the Missouri Valley (including conference tournament games) with a 1-2 record versus NCAA 10 seed Drake
- Won by 9 versus SMU and 12 versus Minnesota in the NIT
...
15-1 record at home

Also, ISU coach Josh Schertz has been rumored for the SLU job but he could be a darkhorse for Louisville

[GoBearcats31]

2024 NIT schedule, TV channels
Tuesday, March 26 | Quarterfinals

No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 4 Georgia, 7 p.m. | ESPN
No. 1 Indiana State vs. No. 2 Cincinnati, 9 p.m. | ESPN

Wednesday, March 27 | Quarterfinals

No. 1 Seton Hall vs. UNLV, 7 p.m. | ESPN2
No. 2 Utah vs. VCU , 9 p.m. | ESPN2


Tuesday, April 2 | Semifinals

TBD vs. TBD
TBD vs. TBD

Thursday, April 4 | Championship

TBD vs. TBD, 7 p.m. | ESPN

[GoBearcats31]

Ken Pom: UC #38 (82 offensive efficiency, 15 defensive efficiency) // Indiana State: #40 (18 and 102)

Indiana State notable games:
- Won by 30 against Saint Mary-of-the-Woods (seriously?)
- Lost by 22 at Alabama
- Went 3-0 in something called the Dawgs Classic with wins over Rice, Pepperdine, Toledo (shout out to Flo TV
- Won by at 8 Bradley, who UC just beat
- Lost by 12 at Michigan State
- Went 2-0 versus UIC and Evansville, who UC beat in the first and last games of the non-conference slate
- Went 19-4 in the Missouri Valley (including conference tournament games) with a 1-2 record versus NCAA 10 seed Drake
- Won by 9 versus SMU and 12 versus Minnesota in the NIT
...
15-1 record at home

[Rufus]

I think the game plan should be to get Avila in foul trouble. If Vik can't be convinced to participate effectively then I'd put a steady diet of Oguama / Reynolds playing with their backs to the baskets to get him in foul trouble. Newman would be put on Cromwell but he must be an offensive force too. I'm looking forward to Sedz' game stats and numbers comparisons between these two teams.

[WestCoastAlum]

I watched him - don't let him fool you . The offense goes through him at the top of the key with the others spreading the floor. This works great with the wider lane. He can dribble and actually is a good passer. They run old school plays for easy baskets through him, he and the others can drill the three. He even took the ball up the court. Most of the time he isn't charging to get down the court and can be beaten under the basket. This game is when Vik is needed for the low post scoring. The inside is available for points. Aziz defense underneath might not be dominate due to their offense. I can see ODY being a big help hanging out with that 21. The Cats have not seen this style but a couple of days in the film room will help them out. ISU is very entertaining. Watch the pick & roll with 21, but his passing while looking slow is spot on too. This should be interesting.

This is a perfect game for the "old" Vik at the 5. Avila won't know what to do witth him. But, contrary to CWM's denial, something is amiss betwen him and Vik. Miller has his favorites and plays them. Lukosius, for example. He's a decent shooter (had a couple of hot games offensively) but he's one dimensional. You want him on the FT line, but, he has no handles. He sees the floor well, but that's not good if you get stripped before you get a pass off. And he's not a good defender. That being said, you need him on the floor because he's a volume 3 shooter that requires a defender outdide the arc.You'll rarely see him in the paint which is obvious by his lack of rebounds. Vik showed last year and the beginning of this year (before Aziz and Reynolds)that he is very capable at the 5. Just tell him not to shoot more than 2 or 3 3's, and then only if wide open at the top of the key (his spot). Reynolds may see some back to the basket time, too, to get some Avila fouls. We'll need perimeter D, for sure. Home court advantage may play a bigger factor in Terre Haute because the whole town shows up for their games - not to mention The Sycamores are playing with a big chip on their shoulder since being rejected by the NCAA. Thankfully the game won't be on ESPN+
Go Cats!!!

[leeraymond]

I watched him - don't let him fool you . The offense goes through him at the top of the key with the others spreading the floor. This works great with the wider lane. He can dribble and actually is a good passer. They run old school plays for easy baskets through him, he and the others can drill the three. He even took the ball up the court. Most of the time he isn't charging to get down the court and can be beaten under the basket. This game is when Vik is needed for the low post scoring. The inside is available for points. Aziz defense underneath might not be dominate due to their offense. I can see ODY being a big help hanging out with that 21. The Cats have not seen this style but a couple of days in the film room will help them out. ISU is very entertaining. Watch the pick & roll with 21, but his passing while looking slow is spot on too. This should be interesting.

Indiana State's style of play reminds me of BYU. BYU also plays with the center at the top of the key looking to pass the ball to a cutter going to the rim. If the cutter is detained or held up, then the center is free to shoot the ball. Indiana State plays like that.