NCAA Tournament thread

[GoBearcats31]

This is a tweet about Arizona (though #1 Purdue does face #5 Gonzaga tonight):

@JoshDubowAP
Most losses in NCAA Tournament since 2016 with +4 seed differential or better:
Arizona 6
Tennessee 4
Virginia 4
Purdue 4

[sedz]

Iowa St does not have a good offense - they are outside the top 50 on Torvik. Along with the second best defense, they have nearly identical efficiency rankings as our 2018 team. At some point you're going to run into an offense that can score on you and you won't be able to outscore them.

I thought our best tournament team was 2017 when we had our best offense of the last 20 years at #31, along with a defense ranked #12. But we ran into UCLA's 3rd ranked offense in the second round and they hung 1.25 points per possession on us. We scored a league average 1.06 and that was that. When we upset 3 seed Florida St in 2012, we were facing a team even more defense heavy than us. We barely had a top 50 offense, but FSU was outside the top 70. They got a 3 seed because of a top 10 defense. We held them to 0.86 points per possession. Then we ran into OSU's 6th ranked offense and they hung 1.18 on us.

Here's what each team we lost to scored on us per possession:

2019 - Iowa 1.18
2018 - Nevada 1.17
2017 - UCLA 1.25
2016 - St Joes 1.27
2015 - Kentucky 1.02
2014 - Harvard 1.02
2013 - Creighton 1.06
2012 - Ohio St 1.18
2011 - UConn 1.16

We had a defensive identity under Cronin, but our defense is what let us down in the postseason. Our average defensive efficiency every single one of those seasons was 0.95 or under. Most years we got torched for more than 1.15 points per possession in the tourney. We had a few ok perfomances from 2013-2015, but you can't count on being able to keep teams under a point per possession in the NCAA tournament no matter how good your defense is. You have to be able to score.

[GoBearcats31]

This Wikipedia entry brings up the question, when did they start seeding the teams in the tournament since no seeds are listed prior to '92 on our chart. I've never delved into this but I wonder how they did the selection process back in the 50's, 60's and 70's. Geography? AP Poll?

Some good history here https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NCAA_D...nament#History

[Lobot]

Absolutely, which makes it frustrating how UC can never do this. In 2012, #6 UC upset #3 FSU in the second round. In no other year has UC ever beaten a higher seed, it appears -- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cincin...season_history

This Wikipedia entry brings up the question, when did they start seeding the teams in the tournament since no seeds are listed prior to '92 on our chart. I've never delved into this but I wonder how they did the selection process back in the 50's, 60's and 70's. Geography? AP Poll?

[GoBearcats31]

Sometimes you just get hot at the right time. I think that's happened with both Clemson and NC State.

Absolutely, which makes it frustrating how UC can never do this. In 2012, #6 UC upset #3 FSU in the second round. In no other year has UC ever beaten a higher seed, it appears -- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cincin...season_history

[Lobot]

Sometimes you just get hot at the right time. I think that's happened with both Clemson and NC State.

[GoBearcats31]

I watched the first half of Iowa/Illinois and was pretty shocked at Iowa State's offense in the first half (particularly against a not great Illinois defense -- at least on paper they were not good). Iowa State has a relentless defense and Illinois was continually getting a bunch of open looks. Iowa State was shooting almost exclusively contested shots at the rims and fadeaways/off balance shots. Would have liked to see the Cyclones advance.

UConn is playing unbelievably well. They face Illinois next.

Alabama/Clemson in the other Elite Eight game on Saturday in what seems more like a College Football Playoff matchup. Old friend Aaron Estrada, the Hofstra transfer, scored 19 last night for Bama and is second on the team in scoring. ... Clemson was 11-1 to start the season including wins over Boise State, at Pitt, South Carolina, TCU, and a 2-point loss to a then-solid Memphis team. They preceded to drop 3 straight conference games and were sitting 4-6 in ACC play in early February before an 11-9 finish and first round ACC Tournament exit. Nice run from them -- first Elite Eight since 1980 I believe.

[Lobot]

Anyone else's bracket completely in shambles? Mine died with Iowa St last night.

[sedz]

Good night for offenses. Every team that won tonight is better on the offensive end, and every team that lost is better on the defensive end. Elite offenses sometimes have too many options to be held under a point per possession even against the best defenses. We ran into that issue almost every year under Cronin. It's tough to make deep runs without at least a top 20 offense.

[Oldtimer_UC_fan]

Only Houston is left...
and they play Duke

[longtimefan]

Arizona came out sleepwalking against a team they were supposed to beat, fell behind by 13, fought back in the 2nd half to take a brief lead, then lost in the final 2 minutes. I feel like I saw that game a lot this year.

[longtimefan]

Three Big 12 teams left, counting Arizona (they already played their last PAC 12 game).

[GoBearcats31]

Everyone will be happy to know that Tenn /Creighton will tip at the wonderfully early time of 10:10 ET on Friday? Why why why why?

At least that is a Friday. How about Iowa State/Illinois at the same time on Friday in Boston (with the two Boston games being 30 mins behind the two taking place in Los Angeles -- including Arizona/Clemson tipping at 4:09 p.m. PT).

[Lobot]

Everyone will be happy to know that Tenn /Creighton will tip at the wonderfully early time of 10:10 ET on Friday? Why why why why?

[sedz]

And now to catch the end of the women's Stanford / Iowa St game, tied with 4 minutes left.