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Thoughts on this year's team entering the conference season?

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  • Thoughts on this year's team entering the conference season?

    A few random comments going into the start of the conference season, with the caveat that this is just one set of opinions

    1-Overall, it's hard not to be pleased with the team as a whole at this point. 10-1 is nothing to sneeze about, even though a substantial portion of this might as well have been against the Little Sisters of the Poor. Still, in recent years we would have found ways to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory against at least one of those teams, and I really don't think we would have had the mental toughness to come back against Xavier or weather the storm when the momentum shifted towards Dayton, so I am going into the new year feeling more cautiously optimistic than I have in a while. Will we lose some games that we could have otherwise won when our shots don't fall and we refuse to consider a plan B? Probably-but as has been noted by others defense travels and this team seems to care more about that end than some recent editions.

    2-While I wish i shared others optimism over the value and importance of CJ Frederick for this team, I just don't see it happening. It's sad, but I think his legs just keep betraying him and keeping him from getting into the flow. I hope I'm wrong for his sake, but hard for me to believe he makes it back to be a consistent contributor. Would be awesome if he has a game where he catches fire and shoots us to a victory late, though.

    3-Conversely, while I appreciate the value of the advanced stats to try to better assess the totality of the game, I still think Connor Hickman may be doing more things that don't show up well enough on the stat sheet, including knowing when to slow things down and when it is important to take a shot in the flow of the offense without forcing things. He also provides sneaky bounce on defense and rebounding from the guard spot.

    4-I can similarly appreciate that Dan Skillings Jr can sometimes play out of control and frustrate the **** out of the viewer-I still think he brings something unique to the table and this team has an extra gear when he is in. When he is playing hard, he brings the rest of the team along with him. As an example, in the Xavier game, yes he probably committed a lane violation on that free throw rebound-but he was the only one going for it full blast at that point and put the rest of the team on his back when they were looking shell shocked-we went from losing every 50:50 ball all game to grabbing every loose ball and rebound down the stretch when it mattered, and I really think he had a major role in that. He also provides length and athleticism that is hard to replace. In the Dayton game, there was a play where he was late rotating to one of their guards setting up in the corner, then went airborne on the shot fake, had the guard blow by him as he went sailing past into the bench, but still managed to get back into the play and block the shot from behind-athleticism and long arms made all the difference, and I don't think anyone on team other than him or Dillon Mitchell could have made that play. When Skillings is fired up and playing hard, the team goes with him.

    5-Dillon Mitchell-speaking of athleticism and long arms, he is a ton of fun to watch, especially since he seems to always go at max effort and with a smile on his face. The free throws and jump shot are....sometimes cause to avert one's eyes, but I'll take the ability and willingness to switch to defend all 5 positions, the ability to jump out of the gym, and an apparent genuine love for his team and this place any day. Would actually love to see him drive to finish a bit more in the new year though.

    6-The lobs-yes, i know the misfires are painful. I'll honestly take them though-this team has shown that they are not a gimmick but rather a legitimate tool for this offense. 98% of Aziz's offensive game is as an elite rim-runner and the lobs play into that, as well as for Mitchell, Page, Skillings, etc. The threat of the lob keeps defenses honest and helps get them away from the "throw it around the perimeter and chuck a 3" bearcat "offense". I'll take the misfires in return for the change in mindset to trying to aggressively get to the rim.

    7-Speaking of Aziz-I'd like to do a tracker on the number of opposing guards he has absolutely obliterated on screens this year. TBH, i think he has been moving a bit on a couple, but he has absolutely laid out a bunch-reminiscent of team's past.

    8-Simas gives, and then sometimes he takes (and takes and takes and takes 3s). Good player, good size, needs to do more to help the team when the shot isn't falling (and when it is frankly). He needs to occasionally drive the ball rather than hunting 3s exclusively. Right now, he is dong nothing to keep defenses honest-the smartest thing to do is to sag off him and dare him to shoot logo 3s-yes, he will hit a few, but the law of averages catches up and many of them are totally disruptive to our offense.

    9 i kind of feel the same way about Jizzle and the midrange shot-there is a reason teams let him take that elbow jumper over and over. Drive to the rim and finish through contact a few times and force them to defend you all over the floor.

    Apparently have been storing up a lot of thoughts for a while. Sorry for the novella. Fired up to see what they get done the next few months!

    LL

  • #2
    Seems a good thread to make conference record predictions , was gonna list every game, but I just didn't like what I was doing, so ill just go 13 and 7...i think 15 or 16 wins the league
    ​​​

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    • #3
      Ditto ... 13-7

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      • #4
        I'll be optimistic and go for 14-6.

        Comment


        • #5
          The major difference makers between last year and this year for me so far have been:

          1) The development of our primary core - Jizzle, Simas, Skillings, and Aziz

          With the exception of Skillings, who is still finding his footing after surgery, our core has taken a big step forward together through the first 11 games. I expect Skillings to be fully up to speed by the start of the new year. Last year's experience dealing with the Big 12 gauntlet together should prove invaluable for the group this year.

          2) Improved bench depth

          While our bench still has its share of question marks, we are unfortunate to have one of the best back-up PGs in the league (Day Day), a quality, experienced combo guard in Hickman, and a high-ceiling developing big in Page. Betsey and Fredrick will provide valuable outside shooting in spurts, while Reed will help do the dirty work on D and on the boards. We saw this group help carry the load when Skillings and Day Day missed time in November, so I'm confident we can still win some Big 12 games if this group is asked to shoulder a bigger load during conference play.

          3) The presence of Dillon Mitchell

          Mitchell is one of the most dynamic athletes that has blessed the program in a long time. His presence on both ends of the court has been a game changer thus far. He has averaged 11.5 ppg and 7.5 rpg (while leading the team in steals) but it seems like he hasn't even taken his game out of 2nd gear yet (meaning he can be even more impactful/dominant). He is the type of player that can single handily make the difference between being a bubble team and a protected seed. I am very excited to see his game flourish during Big 12 play.

          In the "Season Predictions" thread a few months ago, I predicted we'd go 10-1 in conference play and beat Xavier. I'll stick to my original prediction that we'll go 12-8 in Big 12 play, but I hope to be proven wrong.

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by Longtime Lurker View Post
            A few random comments going into the start of the conference season, with the caveat that this is just one set of opinions

            1-Overall, it's hard not to be pleased with the team as a whole at this point. 10-1 is nothing to sneeze about, even though a substantial portion of this might as well have been against the Little Sisters of the Poor. Still, in recent years we would have found ways to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory against at least one of those teams, and I really don't think we would have had the mental toughness to come back against Xavier or weather the storm when the momentum shifted towards Dayton, so I am going into the new year feeling more cautiously optimistic than I have in a while. Will we lose some games that we could have otherwise won when our shots don't fall and we refuse to consider a plan B? Probably-but as has been noted by others defense travels and this team seems to care more about that end than some recent editions.

            2-While I wish i shared others optimism over the value and importance of CJ Frederick for this team, I just don't see it happening. It's sad, but I think his legs just keep betraying him and keeping him from getting into the flow. I hope I'm wrong for his sake, but hard for me to believe he makes it back to be a consistent contributor. Would be awesome if he has a game where he catches fire and shoots us to a victory late, though.

            3-Conversely, while I appreciate the value of the advanced stats to try to better assess the totality of the game, I still think Connor Hickman may be doing more things that don't show up well enough on the stat sheet, including knowing when to slow things down and when it is important to take a shot in the flow of the offense without forcing things. He also provides sneaky bounce on defense and rebounding from the guard spot.

            4-I can similarly appreciate that Dan Skillings Jr can sometimes play out of control and frustrate the **** out of the viewer-I still think he brings something unique to the table and this team has an extra gear when he is in. When he is playing hard, he brings the rest of the team along with him. As an example, in the Xavier game, yes he probably committed a lane violation on that free throw rebound-but he was the only one going for it full blast at that point and put the rest of the team on his back when they were looking shell shocked-we went from losing every 50:50 ball all game to grabbing every loose ball and rebound down the stretch when it mattered, and I really think he had a major role in that. He also provides length and athleticism that is hard to replace. In the Dayton game, there was a play where he was late rotating to one of their guards setting up in the corner, then went airborne on the shot fake, had the guard blow by him as he went sailing past into the bench, but still managed to get back into the play and block the shot from behind-athleticism and long arms made all the difference, and I don't think anyone on team other than him or Dillon Mitchell could have made that play. When Skillings is fired up and playing hard, the team goes with him.

            5-Dillon Mitchell-speaking of athleticism and long arms, he is a ton of fun to watch, especially since he seems to always go at max effort and with a smile on his face. The free throws and jump shot are....sometimes cause to avert one's eyes, but I'll take the ability and willingness to switch to defend all 5 positions, the ability to jump out of the gym, and an apparent genuine love for his team and this place any day. Would actually love to see him drive to finish a bit more in the new year though.

            6-The lobs-yes, i know the misfires are painful. I'll honestly take them though-this team has shown that they are not a gimmick but rather a legitimate tool for this offense. 98% of Aziz's offensive game is as an elite rim-runner and the lobs play into that, as well as for Mitchell, Page, Skillings, etc. The threat of the lob keeps defenses honest and helps get them away from the "throw it around the perimeter and chuck a 3" bearcat "offense". I'll take the misfires in return for the change in mindset to trying to aggressively get to the rim.

            7-Speaking of Aziz-I'd like to do a tracker on the number of opposing guards he has absolutely obliterated on screens this year. TBH, i think he has been moving a bit on a couple, but he has absolutely laid out a bunch-reminiscent of team's past.

            8-Simas gives, and then sometimes he takes (and takes and takes and takes 3s). Good player, good size, needs to do more to help the team when the shot isn't falling (and when it is frankly). He needs to occasionally drive the ball rather than hunting 3s exclusively. Right now, he is dong nothing to keep defenses honest-the smartest thing to do is to sag off him and dare him to shoot logo 3s-yes, he will hit a few, but the law of averages catches up and many of them are totally disruptive to our offense.

            9 i kind of feel the same way about Jizzle and the midrange shot-there is a reason teams let him take that elbow jumper over and over. Drive to the rim and finish through contact a few times and force them to defend you all over the floor.

            Apparently have been storing up a lot of thoughts for a while. Sorry for the novella. Fired up to see what they get done the next few months!

            LL
            Line item 6; The Lobs. Hey man, I had to evolve to understand what the lob was all about. UC probably throws more lob passes than any team in the country. I think it is a brilliant strategy for using Aziz offensively because Aziz is very limited offensively. However, there is nothing wrong with his ability to go up and get those passes that only he can get. The lob is his specialty. Miller has recognized that and tries to use it to the team's advantage. Now, with that being said, the problem is the guards often throw Aziz LOUSY LOB PASSES. UC threw about 5 or 6 lob passes to Aziz in the Dayton game where the opportunity to score with the lob was actually there. However, those passes were all over the place. If the guards could learn to throw the ball to the rim, imagine how many points a game UC could score with Aziz and the lob pass.

            Very good observation with line item # 6. If the guards could consistently deliver the @#%$ ball to where it needs to be, the lob would become a major weapon that may be good for 3,4, or 5 extra field goals a game. Those extra field goals may come in handy during BIG XII play.
            Last edited by leeraymond; 12-28-2024, 12:45 PM.

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by leeraymond View Post

              Line item 6; the lobs. Hey man, I had to evolve to understand what the lob was all about. UC probably throws more lob passes than any team in the country. I think it is a brilliant strategy for using Aziz offensively because Aziz is very limited offensively. However, there is nothing wrong with his ability to go up and get those passes that only he can get. The lob is his specialty. Miller has recognized that and tries to use it the the team's advantage. Now, with that being said, the problem is the guards often throw Aziz LOUSY LOB PASSES. UC threw about 5 or 6 lob passes to Aziz in the Dayton game where the opportunity to score with the lob was there. However, those passes were all over the place. If there the guards could learn to throw the ball to the rim, imagine how many points a game UC could score with Aziz and the lob pass.

              Very good observation with line item # 6. I also see the UC lob game as a great way to score some points. If the guards could consistently deliver the @#%$ ball where it needs to be, the lob would become a major weapon that may be good for 3,4, or 5 extra field goals a game. Those extra field goals may come in handy during BIG XII play.
              Agreed with this-but I think the fact that the lob is a high-frequency play for UC will lead to more consistent performance. Throwing a good lob is a bit like putting up a shot-some days are definitely better than others, but repetition and familiarity between the guards and bigs should make it more automatic. Agreed of course that watching the repeated missed lobs is frustrating-but honestly less so than quick 3s from the logo with no one in place to rebound.

              The other plus of all the lobs is that it fires up the home crowds and sucks all the air out of opposing crowds on the roads.

              Comment


              • #8
                Cautiously optimistic. Looking for some quad 1 wins, some top 20 wins with at least a couple on the road.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Some Dillon Mitchell love https://x.com/franfraschilla/status/...A2NHZ_hNyS2mFg

                  Comment

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