UCF 2/5 7:00 CBS Sports Network

[longtimefan]

Same old same old to start.

[leo from jersey]

DS on the bench again

[leo from jersey]

CWM just said something which I agree with - The game is damn simple. Yes, it takes practice and hard work but the object is simple. he said work together to get the best shot is the solution. I am sure many of us have said that in these forums. It is often beyond x's and O's.

[leo from jersey]

Terry just said if you don't have pride- take off the Cpaw and go do something else.- He quoted Chuck M. -- Grow some chestnuts.

[Lobot]

I would like to see UC get it together but based on the last month "abandon hope, all ye who enter here". Hopefully this game turns out more positive than that quote. Even if we do lose, I'd like to see some progress here.

[Rufus]

I like what Sedz said above, I wish we ran an offense similar to what UCF runs. I might add that the offense we've seen from the cats these last few games amount to just throwing the ball in the middle of five guys and saying "have at it kids!" So it's not hard at all to be hoping that some sort of scheme finally shows up.

[GoBearcats31]

Central Florida is favored by 2.5 points

[Gmann]

UCF runs offense like I wish we did. They aren't great shooters, but they attack the rim. UCF's effective field goal percentage is 49.1, more than a full percentage point worse than us. But their offensive efficiency is #32 nationally and top 5 in conference because they get to the line at a top 75 rate - and they convert 78% because it's the guards and wings taking them, not the bigs. Their highest usage player is Keyshawn Hall, and he has a free throw rate over 50, meaning he takes half as many free throws as he does shots from the field. Our highest usage player is Jizzle, who has a 12% free throw rate. Not even close. It's the same situation across the backcourt. Jizzle, Day Day, and Simas shoot 78% from the stripe as a group, but they all have free throw rates under 20. They've only attempted 89 free throws total. That's why our team free throw rate is so bad. For UCF, Hall, Jordan Ivy-Curry, and Darius Johnson have attempted 292 free throws. That's more than triple what our backcourt has attempted. We send Aziz, Page, and Mitchell to the line most often - all 63% or worse. This is yet another problem that at first glance looks like a lack of effort from players - but it's mostly a coaching and scheme issue.

That said, the key to stopping UCF is to keep them off the free throw line. We're usually very good at that (#21 in the country in lowest free throw rate allowed). So on paper this should be a good matchup for our defense. Keyshawn Hall is the best offensive player in the Big12 per BPM, so we might want to trap him at times. UCF plays at the fastest pace in the conference, they take a lot of threes with a low assist rate, and they're terrible finishers at the rim (48% in conference). Those all indicate a team that just attacks and takes the first shot they like or forces you to foul them.

UCF isn't great on defense, essentially tied with Utah for second worst in the the Big12. We couldn't even score a point per possession at Utah though, so I don't know what to expect. Colorado has the worst defense in conference and we couldn't put up a point per possession against them either. We're hamstrung by a bad scheme regardless of who we are playing. UCF is terrible on the defensive glass, coming in at #328 nationally and by far the worst in the Big 12. The only thing they do well is keep opponents off the three point line, but they allow the worst percentage from beyond the arc in conference.

Good analysis! Thanks for the information.

[sedz]

UCF runs offense like I wish we did. They aren't great shooters, but they attack the rim. UCF's effective field goal percentage is 49.1, more than a full percentage point worse than us. But their offensive efficiency is #32 nationally and top 5 in conference because they get to the line at a top 75 rate - and they convert 78% because it's the guards and wings taking them, not the bigs. Their highest usage player is Keyshawn Hall, and he has a free throw rate over 50, meaning he takes half as many free throws as he does shots from the field. Our highest usage player is Jizzle, who has a 12% free throw rate. Not even close. It's the same situation across the backcourt. Jizzle, Day Day, and Simas shoot 78% from the stripe as a group, but they all have free throw rates under 20. They've only attempted 89 free throws total. That's why our team free throw rate is so bad. For UCF, Hall, Jordan Ivy-Curry, and Darius Johnson have attempted 292 free throws. That's more than triple what our backcourt has attempted. We send Aziz, Page, and Mitchell to the line most often - all 63% or worse. This is yet another problem that at first glance looks like a lack of effort from players - but it's mostly a coaching and scheme issue.

That said, the key to stopping UCF is to keep them off the free throw line. We're usually very good at that (#21 in the country in lowest free throw rate allowed). So on paper this should be a good matchup for our defense. Keyshawn Hall is the best offensive player in the Big12 per BPM, so we might want to trap him at times. UCF plays at the fastest pace in the conference, they take a lot of threes with a low assist rate, and they're terrible finishers at the rim (48% in conference). Those all indicate a team that just attacks and takes the first shot they like or forces you to foul them.

UCF isn't great on defense, essentially tied with Utah for second worst in the the Big12. We couldn't even score a point per possession at Utah though, so I don't know what to expect. Colorado has the worst defense in conference and we couldn't put up a point per possession against them either. We're hamstrung by a bad scheme regardless of who we are playing. UCF is terrible on the defensive glass, coming in at #328 nationally and by far the worst in the Big 12. The only thing they do well is keep opponents off the three point line, but they allow the worst percentage from beyond the arc in conference.

[Bearcat1996]

Need a players' only meeting!

In the process of falling short of all the expectations, I'd at least like to not finish below UCF...

UCF is 13-8 (4-6) with similar narrow wins over CU and ASU (but at home and on road) but also wins at Texas Tech and at home versus TCU. The Knights have lost 4 of 5 but three of those losses were to Houston, Iowa State and Kansas plus a 6-point L to BYU over the weekend.

Top guys:
Keyshawn Hall, 6'7 G/F, 18.1 points, 6.9 rebounds, 2.5 assists (Cleveland native transferred from George Mason)
Darius Johnson, 6'1 G, 14.8 points, 3.4 rebounds, 4.1 assists, 2.5 steals (fourth year at UCF, scored 16 last time out versus UC)
Jordan Ivy-Curry, 6'3 G, 14.5 points, 3.5 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 1.5 steals (fifth year transfer from UTSA)
Moustapha Thiam, 7'2 C, 9.6 points, 5.3 rebounds, 2.5 blocks (freshman from Dakar, Senegal; Aziz, Cheikh Mbodj, Ibrahima Thomas also from there)

UCF scores nearly 80 ppg, including 77.8 from FT

The Knights are #63 in the NET (Quad 1 road game!)

He doesn't play but UCF has a Thai kid named Poohpha Warakulnukroh which is fun; I am sure Dan Hoard will try to pronounce that at least once.

They do need a players-only meeting, except I'm not sure who would lead it! There simply is no leader on this team. I do believe that is a major (not only) root cause to their tumble. I don't see the foreign-born guys being very vocal in any way. That isn't a knock on their ability, it is what it is. I think we can all point to the one or two guys on every team, over the years, that stepped up vocally and took control (might be a fun exercise to run through). CWM has the horses, just no one to lead.

[Carthage World]

UCF is favored by 3.5 points.

[leeraymond]

I remember hearing a story about Chris Mullins of St. Johns told during one of the NCAA bball tourney games years ago. He had keys to gym so that he could work on his shooting any time he wanted. He had a goal in mind ( NBA ) and nothing was going to get in his way. Today players are already getting paid so they don't have to work.

Good point Rufus.

[leo from jersey]

You do play as you practice. I put up a quote in our gym for my kids from Larry Bird- -- "I don't know if I practiced more than anybody, but I sure practiced enough. I still wonder if somebody - somewhere - was practicing more than me." I put them all over the place especially this one from John Havlicek
Success is not given, it is earned through dedication and perseverance.--- Ann Landers - "Nobody ever drowned in his own sweat

[Rufus]

fwiw, i don't have any stats on this, but i do agree with you. when you talk about the guys that stand out, they all have one trait, bar none. they never stop working, never stop trying to get better. there's no shortcut.

I remember hearing a story about Chris Mullins of St. Johns told during one of the NCAA bball tourney games years ago. He had keys to gym so that he could work on his shooting any time he wanted. He had a goal in mind ( NBA ) and nothing was going to get in his way. Today players are already getting paid so they don't have to work.

[leo from jersey]

Darn it - UC basketball was exciting and had us at the edge of our seats -- Kyle Washington Gary Clark we miss you