Bracketology 2025

[Carthage World]

Use this thread to discuss NCAA tournament projections, resumes, and scores from games that may impact UC's status on Selection Sunday.

[GoBearcats31]

Notable bubble results on Wednesday:
- Vanderbilt won at #12 Texas A&M
- Oklahoma lost on a near-buzzer beater at home versus #17 Kentucky (OU drops to 4-11 in SEC but still in the mix apparently)
- Indiana held off Penn State last night
- Villanova had a big comeback to avoid bad loss at Seton Hall
- Wake Forest costly loss at home to Virginia
- Arkansas over Texas in OT in a game between two previously 5-9 SEC teams firmly on the bubble
- Boise State cruised past Utah State
- OSU held off USC on the road (OSU is 16-13 and 15 or more losses could be trouble)
- SMU won by 4 at Cal
- San Francisco won by 2 at Oregon State

Not much going on tonight, but NKU (currently a Q4 road win for UC but three spots away from Q3) plays...

Fourth team out here in newly updated bracket projections http://bracketwag.com/

[leeraymond]

Notable bubble results on Wednesday:
- Vanderbilt won at #12 Texas A&M
- Oklahoma lost on a near-buzzer beater at home versus #17 Kentucky (OU drops to 4-11 in SEC but still in the mix apparently)
- Indiana held off Penn State last night
- Villanova had a big comeback to avoid bad loss at Seton Hall
- Wake Forest costly loss at home to Virginia
- Arkansas over Texas in OT in a game between two previously 5-9 SEC teams firmly on the bubble
- Boise State cruised past Utah State
- OSU held off USC on the road (OSU is 16-13 and 15 or more losses could be trouble)
- SMU won by 4 at Cal
- San Francisco won by 2 at Oregon State

Not much going on tonight, but NKU (currently a Q4 road win for UC but three spots away from Q3) plays...

Fourth team out here in newly updated bracket projections http://bracketwag.com/

I was watching an NCAA Projections segment on CBS Sports Network and Cincinnati's name did not even come up. There are a few schools ahead of UC in the projections. I also saw another projection (Team Rankings) that gave UC a 20 % chance of making the NCAA's with an at large bid. That is an 80% chance of not making the NCAA's according to TR.

Back in October sometime just before the season started, there was an extensive and heated discussion here concerning the weakness of UC's nonconference schedule. I do not see anyone discussing the benefits of that weak nonconference now. UC is in a very bad need of Quad 1 wins now. As my good friend Albert would say, "ain't none". The only Quad 1 game left in the regular season is Houston. It is not likely that UC is going to be better than Houston for 40 minutes. There may not have been as many Quad 1 wins in the BIG XII this year as there were last year (no stats to back that up). No coach has control over the number of Q1 games in the conference.

However, a coach does have control of the number of Q1 games that he can possibly schedule in the nonconference. Up to this point, Miller has been shy about playing those types of games. As it stands now, UC is at the bottom of the NCAA bubble barrel largely because of the two horrible 4 game losing streaks in the first ten games of conference play and its glaring lack of Quad 1 wins.

It may be too little too late for UC to make the Tournament this year Besides, look at all of the bubble schools ahead of UC with Quad 1 wins. Even Xavier is ahead of UC and UC beat Xavier. Xavier had a few good wins in the BIG EAST (Marquette, Villanova, Georgetown, and UCONN (MU and UCONN were ranked at the time)). Also, Xavier played 5 Power Conference schools in the nonconference, where X picked up two wins (Wake Forest and South Carolina).

In sports, such as life, you win some, you lose some. But you cannot win any if you don't try.

Scheduling makes a difference. Miller needs to understand that when he puts together next season's nonconference schedule.

[D.A.H.]

I was watching an NCAA Projections segment on CBS Sports Network and Cincinnati's name did not even come up. There are a few schools ahead of UC in the projections. I also saw another projection (Team Rankings) that gave UC a 20 % chance of making the NCAA's with an at large bid. That is an 80% chance of not making the NCAA's according to TR.

Back in October sometime just before the season started, there was an extensive and heated discussion here concerning the weakness of UC's nonconference schedule. I do not see anyone discussing the benefits of that weak nonconference now. UC is in a very bad need of Quad 1 wins now. As my good friend Albert would say, "ain't none". The only Quad 1 game left in the regular season is Houston. It is not likely that UC is going to be better than Houston for 40 minutes. There may not have been as many Quad 1 wins in the BIG XII this year as there were last year (no stats to back that up). No coach has control over the number of Q1 games in the conference.

However, a coach does have control of the number of Q1 games that he can possibly schedule in the nonconference. Up to this point, Miller has been shy about playing those types of games. As it stands now, UC is at the bottom of the NCAA bubble barrel largely because of the two horrible 4 game losing streaks in the first ten games of conference play and its glaring lack of Quad 1 wins.

It may be too little too late for UC to make the Tournament this year Besides, look at all of the bubble schools ahead of UC with Quad 1 wins. Even Xavier is ahead of UC and UC beat Xavier. Xavier had a few good wins in the BIG EAST (Marquette, Villanova, Georgetown, and UCONN (MU and UCONN were ranked at the time)). Also, Xavier played 5 Power Conference schools in the nonconference, where X picked up two wins (Wake Forest and South Carolina).

Scheduling makes a difference. Miller needs to understand that when he puts together next season's nonconference schedule.

agree wholeheartedly - even if you don't win all of those OOC games, your SOS will be better, and you should be better prepared for conference play. UC's OOC schedule sucked, and they sure as **** weren't ready for conference play. Remember those old UL teams? anybody, anywhere, anytime - they took some lumps, but they also won the prize, and they were usually an annual factor in the tourny.

[GoBearcats31]

agree wholeheartedly - even if you don't win all of those OOC games, your SOS will be better, and you should be better prepared for conference play. UC's OOC schedule sucked, and they sure as **** weren't ready for conference play. Remember those old UL teams? anybody, anywhere, anytime - they took some lumps, but they also won the prize, and they were usually an annual factor in the tourny.

There is a reason Ohio State is just outside the top 30 in most metrics with a mediocre 16-13 record: won versus Texas (neutral), lost at Texas A&M, lost versus Pitt, got blasted by Auburn (neutral), won by 20 versus Kentucky (neutral) ... strong non-con schedule, plus a couple solid Big Ten wins (and several close "good" losses)

[Carthage World]

There is a reason Ohio State is just outside the top 30 in most metrics with a mediocre 16-13 record: won versus Texas (neutral), lost at Texas A&M, lost versus Pitt, got blasted by Auburn (neutral), won by 20 versus Kentucky (neutral) ... strong non-con schedule, plus a couple solid Big Ten wins (and several close "good" losses)

OSU played one less Q4 game than us (6 vs 7). Maybe we'll end up with the same amount if NKU plays well down the stretch and that game will become Q3 (3 spots away right now).

Nonetheless, the big difference between the two schedules is that they hit the mark on nailing sure-fire Q1 games while we took a risk on games like Dayton and Georgia Tech that ended up being weaker Q2 games. We also scheduled more bottom-of-the-barrel Q4 games that probably sunk our SOS quite a bit. I was told that the buy games were intentionally cheap as a program cost-cutting measure.

[GoBearcats31]

I point out, though, the OSU-Kentucky game was part of a long-standing CBS event (so not like UC was going to get Kentucky) and the season opener against Texas in Vegas or wherever was also potentially something that they were invited to. Perhaps the Texas A&M game was relevant to OSU's new AD who came from A&M. Obviously the biggest thing lacking for UC the last couple years was a legit MTE event. But you'd hope they can go out and find some quality opponents in the OOC nonetheless.

[sedz]

Torvik's bracketology:

Last four in: Ohio St, UNC, Oklahoma, Nebraska
First four out: Indiana, Boise St, Texas, Xavier
Next four out: SMU, Cincinnati, Wake Forest, Villanova

Ohio St plays Nebraska this weekend and Indiana the following weekend. The best outcome for us might be if OSU sweeps those games. Like us, all three of the BigTen bubble teams have 8-9 quality wins with no bad losses.
UNC is banking on a very strong non con SOS, even though a 2 point win over UCLA is all they have to show for it (a game they led for about 60 seconds total). Big chance when they host Duke to close the season.
Oklahoma (like almost everyone else in the SEC) has three Q1 games left, including two Q1-A where they already have 3 wins. Yes, they're 4-11 in conference but they went undefeated in non con with 5 quality wins.
Boise has a sneaky good resume with wins over Clemson and St Marys that counter their two bad losses, and they're above .500 in Q1/2. I think people are sleeping on the Broncos. If they take care of business to close the season I think they'll be in good shape.
Texas is 5-10 in the SEC and didn't do much out of conference, but their worst loss is at 91 South Carolina. They've got a pair of home bubble matchups against Georgia and Oklahoma left.
Xavier is counting on their road win at Marquette. Like us, they have just one Q1 win, little to show from the non con, but no bad losses. They've got a couple Q2 games left.
SMU has no Q1 wins and none that are even close. No Q1 chances left on the schedule either. They're in trouble.
Wake might be in trouble too after last night's loss to Virginia, their second Q3 loss. They've got a couple more Q3 games left with a trip to Duke being the last major opportunity they might have to win.
Villanova is in a similar spot with two bad losses (and Virginia on a neutral floor is close to a third) cancelling out a couple of Q1 home wins.

[D.A.H.]

OSU played one less Q4 game than us (6 vs 7). Maybe we'll end up with the same amount if NKU plays well down the stretch and that game will become Q3 (3 spots away right now).

Nonetheless, the big difference between the two schedules is that they hit the mark on nailing sure-fire Q1 games while we took a risk on games like Dayton and Georgia Tech that ended up being weaker Q2 games. We also scheduled more bottom-of-the-barrel Q4 games that probably sunk our SOS quite a bit. I was told that the buy games were intentionally cheap as a program cost-cutting measure.

i get the whole "we're broke" party line. but, don't the tv networks put together some of these pre conference matchups, etc? isn't UC attractive enough, to get a sniff in one of those? wouldn't that get us a better SOS matchup?

[sedz]

Other teams to look out for are conference leaders that would become bubble teams if they falter in the conference tourney. Those are VCU, Drake, and UC San Diego.

VCU is in good shape with a top 30 NET, 7-4 Q1/2 record, and just one bad loss. Unless they lose multiple games to close the season, they should be ok.
Drake is also looking good. They're 5-0 in Q1/2 with wins over Vandy and Kansas St away from home. They do have 3 bad losses, but that's probably not enough to sink the resume.
UC San Diego is a little more precarious with just 3 quality wins, but they have a chance to pick up another Q2 win tonight at 101 Cal Northridge. If they get the win, 4-2 in Q1/2 including a road win at Utah St will be a solid resume. Lose, and an early season Q4 home loss to Seattle might haunt them.

And of course we will be rooting against bid stealers in all the conference tournaments, but mostly the American where Memphis is a lock but has looked vulnerable in conference play.

[longtimefan]

Speaking of quality OOC games, I’d love to do a multi year agreement with Memphis. We’ve always had a good rivalry with them, and playing once a year would help both of us.

[bearcatbret]

I do not know about advanced scheduling in basketball but our football nonconference schedule is set for like five years out in advance. Is basketball anything like that? If so, Miller may have been stuck with the current schedule.

On another note, the Enquirer today had an article about X might make the Los Vegas tournament.

[D.A.H.]

Other teams to look out for are conference leaders that would become bubble teams if they falter in the conference tourney. Those are VCU, Drake, and UC San Diego.

VCU is in good shape with a top 30 NET, 7-4 Q1/2 record, and just one bad loss. Unless they lose multiple games to close the season, they should be ok.
Drake is also looking good. They're 5-0 in Q1/2 with wins over Vandy and Kansas St away from home. They do have 3 bad losses, but that's probably not enough to sink the resume.
UC San Diego is a little more precarious with just 3 quality wins, but they have a chance to pick up another Q2 win tonight at 101 Cal Northridge. If they get the win, 4-2 in Q1/2 including a road win at Utah St will be a solid resume. Lose, and an early season Q4 home loss to Seattle might haunt them.

And of course we will be rooting against bid stealers in all the conference tournaments, but mostly the American where Memphis is a lock but has looked vulnerable in conference play.

it never gets old, whenever they've played memphis, when they remind mr. hardaway that he lost four times in one season to uc.

[bearcatbret]

it never gets old, whenever they've played memphis, when they remind mr. hardaway that he lost four times in one season to uc.

Final 4 season! I was working in Illinois at the time and won big in our office NCAA tournament pool.

[bearcatlifer]

Since we are discussing non-conference schedule strength...I have an honest question. How much of this is within the control of the head coach? Isn't the AD the one making these decisions?