Houston March 1st, 4:30 CBS

[GoBearcats31]

Fredrick underwent a procedure and didn’t travel, per Scott Springer https://x.com/sspringersports/status...A2NHZ_hNyS2mFg

[Lobot]

Line has dropped to Houston -13.5

[Gypo O'Leary]

They have Kansas on Monday, so maybe we can be overlooked. Our guards are good enough to stay with theirs. This is a game where Mitchell needs to step up and play big time. The problem is if UC can keep it even for a half...they always get blown away in minutes 5-10 of the second half. Lukosius is just a flat out liability against a team at Houston's level. And Skillings is a good enough athlete that he can be a wild card here.

[swilsonsp4]

Brad Nessler / Jay Wright on the call for CBS

Excellent duo. They certainly are lightyears ahead of any of their CBSSN play-by-play guys working alongside Joe Bag O'Doughnuts (Pete Gillen, for you youngsters).

The oddsmakers set an initial line of UH -15.5. ESPN Analytics give UC a 7.8% shot at this one.

[GoBearcats31]

Brad Nessler / Jay Wright on the call for CBS

[sedz]

Houston has the best defense in the country. But they aren't a great defensive rebounding team and they give up a ton of assisted threes. Since beating them is a longshot anyway, might as well let it fly from three and see if we can make a dozen.

Offensively they shoot a lot from midrange, and we shouldn't be baited into helping or over committing to contest those. That's part of why they are so good on the offensive glass. They don't score much at the rim either, so no need to come flying over to block shots. The focus should be staying disciplined in rebounding position. Houston shoots under 50% inside the arc, #253 in the country. Protect the three point line, let them take midrange jumpers and grab the rebound.

Houston's best player is Sharp, but they are very balanced. Roberts is the highest usage player at just over 22% and Tugler has the least usage at 18% (a perfectly balanced roster would have every player at exactly 20%). Compare that to our squad with Jizzle at 30% in conference play and Reed/Aziz under 14%.

This game is worth 0.95 WAB, so we're basically playing with house money. A loss doesn't hurt at all but a win would vault us to the right side of the bubble.

[GoBearcats31]

Houston at home this season in Big 12 play:
- Beat BYU by 31
- Beat TCU by 19
- Beat WVU by 16
- Beat Utah by 24
- Lost to Texas Tech by 1 in OT
- Beat Oklahoma State by 9
- Beat Baylor by 11
- Beat Iowa State by 9

Houston has an 8 game series winning streak, but UC has actually been within single digits the last two trips to the Fertitta Center.

Last time UC won at Houston was January 7, 2017 -- Kyle Washington led the way with 19 and 9, while Troy Caupain, Jacob Evans, Gary Clark and Kevin Johnson also posted double figures. Freshman Jarron Cumberland had 2 points in 16 minutes, the lone points scored by the UC bench.

[Gmann]

A big factor in us having any chance to win is how the refs call the game. If Houston is allowed to play physical and foul on every play without being called we have no chance. They are the more physical team and they will kill us on the boards and disrupt any offense we try to run. In their game at home last week against Iowa State they were mugging the Cyclones all over and not getting called. I have my concerns with it being a home game for them as the refs don't want to deal with Sampson.

[red_n_black_attack]

A nationally televised road game against a top 5 team, and a great coach. The odds are stacked against us, but great defensive teams like UH get flustered by great defensive teams like UC. Our chances are slim to none. In order for the stars to align for a UC upset, we will have to hold UH below their scoring average, create chaos on defense, make outside shots (Simas/Reed have to help Jizzle/DayDay), rebound to both get 2nd chance shots and stop UH from getting 2nd chances, keep our fouls/turnovers low, and shoot 90% from the charity stripe.

Chances of an upset are low, but never zero. Go Bearcats!