NCAA Tournament and Bracket

[leeraymond]

What a finish in the Maryland v Colorado St game. Both teams fighting hard on the glass and hitting big shots.

I have to give it to you. You were spot on about Colorado State. That team can really hoop. However, they play with two big men in the starting lineup. I would not consider Colorado State as exclusively a wing team. Mbemba is 6'7" 250 and Crocker-Johnson is 6'8" 230. These are two big guys. They are somewhat short, but they are big.

Nique Clifford will probably get a good long look from the NBA. However, Maryland's size played a major role in the last 5 minutes of the game. Colorado State could not get much at the rim late in the game. To me, that was one of the keys to the game.

Colorado State, as a team, outrebounded and outscored Maryland in the paint. But it was the play of Maryland's bigs that really played a role. Maryland's big men went 32 and 17 where Colorado States's big men went 9 and 11. Also, Maryland hit two more free throws. This was a good game; played at a very high level.

If you look at all of the teams still left in the NCAAs, none of them can be considered all wing teams. However, Arizona and Houston play with undersized bigs in the starting lineup. Note that Arizona brings a 7-footer in off the bench who plays big minutes.

I do agree that in some situations, against certain teams, the all-wing lineup can be very successful. However, a team needs some big men to win championships. I predict that the team that wins the NCAA Championship this year, will have some good big men that play inside.

[sedz]

Crocker-Johnson is not a traditional big man. He's mobile, can shoot from the perimeter, handle the ball, and defend multiple positions. That makes him a wing. Mbemba is a wide body 5, but he only plays 17 mpg. He played 16 minutes against Maryland.

The strong, skilled bigs remaining that that you are talking about are mostly 5 star recruits. Derik Queen. Johni Broome. Khaman Malauch (or top 75 like Kohler, Ivisic, or Furst). Or transfers who had proven themselves at other schools and were very highly sought after (Goldin, Wolf, Toppin, Keita, Amari Williams). Florida discovered a diamond in Australian big man Alex Condon. There aren't very many bigs of that caliber, and it's extremely difficult for a team like ours to afford one. Most teams that don't have a guy like that opt for talent and mobility over bulk. Tennessee and Alabama play tall, skinny guys who run the floor and shoot. Arizona's 7 footer that you mentioned only weighs 225 and is skilled and mobile. Ole Miss and Texas Tech have undersized frontcourts. Purdue plays Kaufman-Renn at the 5 most of the game - he's a mobile 6'9 225 guy. That's likely the route we need to take.

How many teams are left (or made the NCAAT at all) who have unskilled big men? That's the only argument I have made here. Unskilled size is obsolete in today's game. If you can't find a skilled big, play skilled wings instead. They are easy to find. The remaining teams have multiple of them. They are playing all over the country and are affordable. And you can win with them in the frontcourt.

Really the only thing I care about is that you can produce. I don't care what size you are or what your natural position is. If you can score, defend, and rebound, I want you on my team. Give me guys who have a 4+ BPM. We can play two bigs, 4 guards, or all wings. If you have a roster of good players, you can compete.

[sedz]

So it turns out the SEC did deserve their reputation. They get 7 teams into the sweet sixteen. Texas A&M was the only one of 6 protected seeds to fall, but Ole Miss and Arkansas advanced from the 6 and 10 lines.

The BigTen and Big12 had identical performances, each advancing 3 of 4 protected seeds plus one team on the 5-6 lines.

Duke got in as the only protected seed from the ACC.

And that's it. Only four conferences are represented. If there is a loser it's the BigEast, whose lone protected seed St Johns failed to advance. But in general this tournament has gone close to chalk, which means conference pedigrees based on the regular season have held up.

The women's bracket looks similar. 6 teams from the SEC, outperforming their 5 protected seeds. The ACC advanced all 4 of their protected seeds. The BigTen advanced 3 teams, slightly underperforming their 4 protected seeds. The B12 has 2 teams, matching their protected seeds. And UConn advanced as the only protected seed from the BigEast.

And that's it, every team is from a major conference. Of course it's much more difficult for a lower seed to advance to the sweet sixteen in the women's bracket because protected seeds play at home. But the only non-P5 teams to win a game were Richmond and South Dakota St.

[sedz]

Back to WV for a second. WV had 6 Q1 wins and did not even make the NIT (as far as I know). How could that have happened?

Bad Kenpom ranking. See discussion earlier in the thread:

The committee shocked everyone by leaving West Virginia out. They were included in all 111 brackets on bracketmatrix.

If there are any consistent takeaways here, it's that a bad conference record doesn't matter, and that metrics are extremely important for bubble teams. West Virginia finished #53 in Kenpom, worse than any of the 6 bubble teams discussed above. That overweighed 6 Q1 wins (4 of those Q1-A) and no bad losses. Margin of victory matters. I think that's bad for the game.

[leeraymond]

Crocker-Johnson is not a traditional big man. He's mobile, can shoot from the perimeter, handle the ball, and defend multiple positions. That makes him a wing. Mbemba is a wide body 5, but he only plays 17 mpg. He played 16 minutes against Maryland.

The strong, skilled bigs remaining that that you are talking about are mostly 5 star recruits. Derik Queen. Johni Broome. Khaman Malauch (or top 75 like Kohler, Ivisic, or Furst). Or transfers who had proven themselves at other schools and were very highly sought after (Goldin, Wolf, Toppin, Keita, Amari Williams). Florida discovered a diamond in Australian big man Alex Condon. There aren't very many bigs of that caliber, and it's extremely difficult for a team like ours to afford one. Most teams that don't have a guy like that opt for talent and mobility over bulk. Tennessee and Alabama play tall, skinny guys who run the floor and shoot. Arizona's 7 footer that you mentioned only weighs 225 and is skilled and mobile. Ole Miss and Texas Tech have undersized frontcourts. Purdue plays Kaufman-Renn at the 5 most of the game - he's a mobile 6'9 225 guy. That's likely the route we need to take.

How many teams are left (or made the NCAAT at all) who have unskilled big men? That's the only argument I have made here. Unskilled size is obsolete in today's game. If you can't find a skilled big, play skilled wings instead. They are easy to find. The remaining teams have multiple of them. They are playing all over the country and are affordable. And you can win with them in the frontcourt.

Really the only thing I care about is that you can produce. I don't care what size you are or what your natural position is. If you can score, defend, and rebound, I want you on my team. Give me guys who have a 4+ BPM. We can play two bigs, 4 guards, or all wings. If you have a roster of good players, you can compete.

I am in agreement about Crocker-Johnson. However, when he is in the game he guards the other teams' big men. About 41% of his shots are from three. He shoots about 35% from three. However, against Maryland he went 0-6 from three and only scored 9 points. Mbemba played about the 19 minutes a game on the season. He is the other big man defender. He only scored 2 points and had 3 rebounds against Maryland. The fact of the matter is that Maryland's front-line guys outplayed Colorado State's frontline guys (or whatever guys that guard the other teams' big men). I like Colorado State. The frontline match-ups did not favor them.

I used to think that Texas Tech is undersized. They are not. Remember Tech can play 6'9" (Toppin) and 6'11" (Federiko Federiko, cool name). People forget about him. Federiko plays about 19 minutes a game on the season. However, against Drake, he only played 8 minutes. As a coach, that is what you what. A roster that is flexible enough to play more than one style.

I also agree with you concerning the rarity of finding big men that really know how to and are capable of playing some good basketball. Pay close attention to Kaufman-Renn. He is the most physical big man in the country. That guy does not f-around in the paint. I like him. If you have ever seen Zach Edey, he was also very physical in the paint. Maybe that is something they teach at Purdue. By the way, Kaufman-Renn is actually 230.

I believe that the big men are out there. You just have to go and find them. Imagine all of the capable bigs who, for whatever reason, are on the bench. Look at Lakhin and Reynolds last year. I am sure there are many stories just like that around the country. As a recruiter, a coach such as Miller, cannot afford not to look under every rock or be lazy. By the way, can a college coach contact a college player before the portal opens? Here is hoping UC can bring in some bigs that can move into the starting lineup.

You are correct. The bottom line is bringing in players that can make plays and compete at the highest levels. However, from what I have seen, wings are no match for big men in the paint regardless how of good they are. They just are not big and strong enough to play defense against that size.

[leeraymond]

Bad Kenpom ranking. See discussion earlier in the thread:

That is too bad because WV proved that it can beat some of the most competitive teams in the country and was still left out. WV had more Q1 wins than both Xavier and UNC combined. What message does this send?

[sedz]

Colorado St embodies my point. They were outmatched at the two frontline positions, but as a team full of wings they still outscored Maryland at the rim by 12 and outrebounded them by 10. They took the #10 team in Kenpom to the wire. We should be able to assemble a team that can do that, even if we aren't able to land a premiere big man. I actually think we could do it with our current roster if we were coached differently.

Texas Tech is very small. Federiko and Toppin split time at the 5. One of them is a slender 6'11 215, and the other 6'9 225. They are about typical size for the 5 spot, but both are athletic guys who can switch on defense. And they are the only guys over 6'6. They play 3 guards 6'2 or smaller with a 6'6 PF. That's tiny.

A Kaufman-Renn type player would be great. He's an elite interior scorer.

Reynolds is exactly what I don't want. A big body who is not a good player. We've already tried that with Reynolds, Kalu Ezikpe, Chris Vogt, and Jaume Sorolla. It doesn't work.

[sedz]

That is too bad because WV proved that it can beat some of the most competitive teams in the country and was still left out. WV had more Q1 wins than both Xavier and UNC combined. What message does this send?

I agree, I hate it. The committee sent a message that scoring margin matters more than who actually wins the game.

[leeraymond]

Colorado St embodies my point. They were outmatched at the two frontline positions, but as a team full of wings they still outscored Maryland at the rim by 12 and outrebounded them by 10. They took the #10 team in Kenpom to the wire. We should be able to assemble a team that can do that, even if we aren't able to land a premiere big man. I actually think we could do it with our current roster if we were coached differently.

Texas Tech is very small. Federiko and Toppin split time at the 5. One of them is a slender 6'11 215, and the other 6'9 225. They are about typical size for the 5 spot, but both are athletic guys who can switch on defense. And they are the only guys over 6'6. They play 3 guards 6'2 or smaller with a 6'6 PF. That's tiny.

A Kaufman-Renn type player would be great. He's an elite interior scorer.

Reynolds is exactly what I don't want. A big body who is not a good player. We've already tried that with Reynolds, Kalu Ezikpe, Chris Vogt, and Jaume Sorolla. It doesn't work.

Yeah. I really enjoyed watching Colorado State. That is one tough team. CSU outscored the bigger UM team in the paint and outrebounded them by a boat load. It really was too bad that somebody had to lose that game.

No. Texas Tech actually does play both Toppin and Federiko at the same time in stretches. I have seen Texas Tech do it. No joke. I agree that once you go down the roster after Toppin and Federiko, TT is rather small. However, they are tough, they can score against anybody, and Toppin is an amazing presence in the paint.

I thought that Reynolds was not that bad of an offensive player. The guy can score a little bit. I also thought that he played up too high near the free throw line. He used to let people get behind him for backdoor plays and cuts down the baseline to the rim. I think that if UC played Reynolds closer to the rim, he may have played more minutes. Miller used to get frustrated with Reynolds because of an inability to protect the rim. Reynolds has since also developed a turnover problem. I did not notice that when he was at UC.

I am sure that UC can find some big men that do not remind you of Reynolds, Ezikpe (I thought he was not that bad. Miller did not give him much of a chance to prove himself), Vogt, Sorolla, Tolentino, and etc. They are out there. Miller has to put in the leg work and go find them.

[sedz]

Texas Tech actually does play both Toppin and Federiko at the same time in stretches. I have seen Texas Tech do it. No joke.

Yes, for 5 minutes per game on average. They combine for 45 minutes. Although so far in the NCAA tournament, they have yet to share the floor, exclusively splitting 40 minutes at the 5.

[sedz]

I am sure that UC can find some big men that do not remind you of Reynolds, Ezikpe (I thought he was not that bad. Miller did not give him much of a chance to prove himself), Vogt, Sorolla, Tolentino, and etc. They are out there. Miller has to put in the leg work and go find them.

I hope so!

[sedz]

Number of transfers in the starting 5 of each sweet sixteen team:

0 - Purdue, Michigan St
1 - Duke, BYU
2 - Houston
3 - Florida, Tennessee, Maryland, Arizona, Arkansas
4 - Auburn, Alabama, Texas Tech, Ole Miss
5 - Kentucky, Michigan

Izzo and Painter still doing things the old way. Kentucky and Michigan have new coaches, so not too surprising they are all transfers. But overall, the majority of players have transferred from somewhere else. I'm not making a point here, just interesting to see how drastically things have changed.

[leeraymond]

Number of transfers in the starting 5 of each sweet sixteen team:

0 - Purdue, Michigan St
1 - Duke, BYU
2 - Houston
3 - Florida, Tennessee, Maryland, Arizona, Arkansas
4 - Auburn, Alabama, Texas Tech, Ole Miss
5 - Kentucky, Michigan

Izzo and Painter still doing things the old way. Kentucky and Michigan have new coaches, so not too surprising they are all transfers. But overall, the majority of players have transferred from somewhere else. I'm not making a point here, just interesting to see how drastically things have changed.

It is also interesting that these coaches can bring in all of these new guys and produce winning teams with them. It is really interesting what Kentucky and Michigan are doing.

What does that say about coaches who have been working with the same players for two and three years and still cannot win games? No need to give any examples or names at this time.

[sedz]

Alabama's offense tonight: 79 possessions, 51 threes, 21 free throws, 12 rim attempts, 3 midrange shots, 113 points. That's 1.43 points per possession in a sweet sixteen game.

[sedz]

Florida went thin at the 4 and obliterated Maryland's two big lineup on the glass 42-20. Alex Condon only played 14 minutes (and 7 of those minutes were at the 5). Thomas Haugh at 6'9 215 and Alijah Martin at 6'2 pulled down more offensive rebounds than Maryland's entire team. Maryland's bigs were their best players, but the team was overwhelmed by five Florida wings who each scored at least 12 points (including at least one three) and combined for 23 rebounds and 14 assists.