2026 March Madness Thread

[GoBearcats31]

Also this team is apparently safe (for now) and projected around a 9 seed

Jeff Borzello:

NC State drops to 1-5 in its last six games.

Those five losses:
- By 41 to Louisville
- At home to Miami after leading by seven with 55 seconds left
- By 29 to Virginia
- Notre Dame, which was 3-12 in the ACC entering the game
- By 29 at home to Duke

[Carthage World]

There were no real bubble teams in action last night. NC State got blown out at home by 29 to Duke, but is still safely in the field as of now. They'd have to lose at home to Stanford this weekend to be put on the bubble.

Games of interest tonight (3/3)
TCU @ Texas Tech (need a Texas Tech win - a blowout would be nice for metrics)
Nebraska @ UCLA (need a Nebraska win)
George Mason @ VCU (could use a George Mason win although it appears unlikely to happen)
Oklahoma State @ UCF (could use an OK St win although it appears unlikely to happen)
Seton Hall @ Xavier (a Xavier win helps keep Seton Hall off the bubble)
Kentucky @ Texas A&M (need a Kentucky win)
West Virginia @ Kansas St (a KSU win helps keep WVU off the bubble)
San Diego St @ Boise St (need a Boise St win)
Boston College @ Virginia Tech (could use a BC win although it appears unlikely to happen)
LSU @ Auburn (could use an LSU win although it appears unlikely to happen)

TCU beat Texas Tech 73-65 and jumped from 45 to 42 in NET.

UCLA beat Nebraska 72-52 and jumped from 39 to 36 in NET.

VCU beat George Mason 70-65 and rose from 47 to 46 in NET

Oklahoma State beat UCF 111-104 in OT. UCF dropped from 46 to 48 in NET. Oklahoma State (NET #79) is now a Q3 loss for UCF.

Seton Hall beat Xavier 77-68 and jumped from 56 to 52 in NET.

Texas A&M beat Kentucky 96-85 and stayed at 43 in NET.

Kansas St beat WVU 65-63. WV dropped from 58 to 62 in NET.

Boise St beat San Diego St 86-77. San Diego dropped from 44 to 47 in NET.

Virginia Tech beat BC 72-63 and dropped from 55 to 54 in NET.

Auburn beat LSU 88-74 and dropped from 38 to 39 in NET.

[bearcatbret]

I believe that there are 32 conferences each being awarded an automatic bid. Add eight more from both the B1G and SEC, that is already up to 48 teams. Add in the teams ahead of UC in the Big 12, the at large from both the ACC and Big East and there is very little space for UC.

[GoBearcats31]

A cool storyline, potentially -- OSU boosted its chances with a big win versus Purdue on Sunday. But the Buckeyes could really hurt themselves with a loss tonight at Penn State -- last place team in the Big Ten. Third leading scorer for PSU? Josh Reed. He scored 22 and 25 in two of his last three games. Let's go Josh!

[GoBearcats31]

Also, good discussion of UC's chances to dance https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MvHSbDNsRAY&t=177s

[Carthage World]

Games of interest tonight (3/4)
Minnesota @ Indiana (NET #40)
Texas (NET #38) @ Arkansas
Miami (NET #31) @ SMU (NET #37)
Cal (NET #64) @ Georgia Tech
Ohio State (NET #34) @ Penn State
Villanova (NET #33) @ DePaul
Colorado St @ New Mexico (NET #44)
USC (NET #63) @ Washington

[GoBearcats31]

"Cincinnati is now #1 in the country in our Momentum metric at http://Haslametrics.com. After a home loss to West Virginia on February 5th, the Bearcats were left for dead with an 11-12 mark. Since then, Cincinnati has turned on the jets, going 6-1, including a 90-68 victory over BYU last night. The win over the Cougars earned the Bearcats a +35.15 game efficiency rating, their fourth-best of the season. ALL of Cincinnati's five top-rated games this season have come after the aforementioned West Virginia loss. The rapid climb can largely be attributed to the Bearcats' offense, which has outperformed expectations in six of its last seven showings. Cincinnati is also #1 nationally in our Offensive Momentum metric. An impactful win at TCU on Saturday could put Cincinnati (17-13) squarely into the bubble discussion for the upcoming NCAA Tournament. They are currently ranked 43rd at http://Haslametrics.com."

[swilsonsp4]

The transformation of this team has been dramatic. The Cats now stand at #26, considering the entire season, per bartorvik.com. Since the beginning of B12 play on 1/3/26, UC are #15. Even more notable, since 2/1/26, the Bearcats have played as the #9 team nationally, ahead of #16 IA State. In hindsight, it should be no shocker that UC went into The Phog and dominated.

[bearcatbret]

An AI generated article questioning the minimal rise in rankings for UC:
Cincinnati Bearcats Fight for Postseason Glory in Lunardis Surprising Prediction | Fanrecap.com

[D.A.H.]

The transformation of this team has been dramatic. The Cats now stand at #26, considering the entire season, per bartorvik.com. Since the beginning of B12 play on 1/3/26, UC are #15. Even more notable, since 2/1/26, the Bearcats have played as the #9 team nationally, ahead of #16 IA State. In hindsight, it should be no shocker that UC went into The Phog and dominated.

i'd love to see uc make a run. but, the wes miller era, and all of its sloppiness, dumbness, drama, excuses, etc., has just burned me out. I do hope they can finish well, but, at this point, you can call me missouri - they're gonna have to show me that they can do it. its what, a seven game stretch? lets see if they can keep it up

[Carthage World]

3/4 Results

Indiana beat Minnesota 77-47. Indiana jumped from #40 to #37 in NET.

Texas lost at Arkansas 105-85. Texas dropped from #38 to #39 in NET.

SMU lost to Miami 77-69. SMU dropped from #37 to #38 in NET.

Cal won at Georgia Tech 76-65. Cal stayed at #64 in NET.

Ohio St won at Penn St 94-62. Ohio St rose from #34 to #32 in NET.

Villanova won at DePaul 76-57. Nova dropped from #33 to #34 in NET.

New Mexico lost to Colorado St 82-74. New Mexico dropped from #44 to #47 in NET. New Mexico now has two Q3 losses.

USC lost at Washington 91-72. USC dropped from #63 to #68 in NET and is likely off the bubble having lost 5 in a row now.

Games of interest tonight 3/5

There are no genuine bubble teams in action tonight. Iowa (NET #26) hosts Michigan. Iowa is firmly in the tournament as of now, but has the potential to end the regular season losing 4 of their last 5 and 6 of their last 8 if they lose tonight and at Nebraska this weekend.

South Florida (NET #49) travels to Memphis for a fringe Q2 opportunity and Tulsa (NET #50) travels to ECU for a Q4 game. The AAC is a one-bid conference at this moment, but USF is its best candidate for gaining at-large berth barring some crazy sequence of events over the next week and a half.

[GoBearcats31]

According to BracketMatrix, which has compiled data from 117 bracktologists/brackets UC is in four of them

The fringe potential at-large teams to watch include (over half of these teams will make it but rest will not):
- SMU (trending south quickly)
- Texas A&M
- TCU (UC's next opponent)
- Miami, OH if they do not win the MAC
- Ohio State
- Santa Clara
- VCU (plays at Dayton on Friday, which could be double helpful to UC's resume)
- New Mexico
- Indiana (plays at OSU this weekend...IU probably needs it more but OSU is not safe either)
- Auburn
- San Diego State
- Virginia Tech
- Cal
- USC (leading scorer just left the program this week)


Let's get this out of the way, as we say every year -- statistically, Joe Lunardi is not rated very highly as a bracketologist. But here is his latest bubble report

Last four byes: Missouri, A&M, Texas, Ohio State
Last four in (Dayton): Santa Clara, SMU, Indiana, New Mexico
First four out: VCU, Auburn, Virginia Tech, Cal
Next four out: Cincinnati, San Diego State, Stanford, Seton Hall

(UC is in or near "first four out" for many after being effectively "eliminated" a month ago)

[sedz]

We are the last team IN on Torvik's bracketology, moving into the field after New Mexico's loss last night.

Our WAB is killing us. We sit at #27 overall on Torvik, but with a negative WAB. You have to drop all the way to #44 before you find another team with negative WAB in San Diego St. We'll finish the season in negative territory even if we win at TCU and win our first round tourney game.

[Carthage World]

Games of interest 3/6
VCU (NET #45) at Dayton... Q1 opportunity for VCU; desperately need a Dayton win

UCF (NET #49) at WVU (NET #62)... A WVU win helps our Big 12 tournament seeding should we win on Saturday; UCF seems firmly in the tournament as of now but would a third straight loss put them back on the bubble? Can WVU get back on the bubble themselves?

St. John's at Seton Hall (NET #52)... Seton Hall only has 1 Q1 win and 2 Q3 losses but a win tonight could put them back on the bubble

Miami (NET #53) at Ohio... We either need Miami to flame out immediately or win the MAC tournament in a blaze of glory; we can't have two bids from this conference under any circumstances

UNLV at San Diego St (NET #46)... Q3 game for the Aztecs; a win doesn't move the needle for them but a loss could pop their bubble

[bearcatbret]

Speaking of Miami, their record is extremely impressive from any league. However, they have been sneaking out games throughout the season either with buzzer beaters or in OT against some really bad teams (probably because they have a target on their backs and brings opponent's A game). I have seen some "experts" say that if Miami does not win their conference tournament, they will not make the dance. If that happens, it would be a travesty but would help UC. So, as mentioned above, either fizzle out soon or win the MAC tournament.