Bowl Projections for '19-20

[Lobot]

Vannini has a breakdown of the NY6 G5 bowl race here ($): https://theathletic.com/1354228/2019...c-cotton-bowl/

For those who can't access the article, He brings up a really interesting point. What happens to the access bowl bid if UC beats Temple and then UC and Memphis trade L's in the final two weeks? The conference champ would have 2 losses and would likely not make the Cotton Bowl over Boise St or even possibly San Diego St.

CFP Rankings are below. Notice that SDSU is not in the rankings though. Best scenario for the AAC is have the conference champ run the table from here whether it's UC or Memphis and/or have Boise St. lose again.

https://www.espn.com/college-football/rankings/_/poll/21/week/11/year/2019/seasontype/2

[Lobot]

Athletic Bowl projections are out. Mandel has us in the Liberty Bowl vs. Iowa St. ($)

https://theathletic.com/1369666/2019/11/12/mandels-bowl-projections-will-roses-bloom-in-minnesota-this-winter/

[Lobot]

CBS. Gasparilla Bowl vs. LA Tech (oh yay :/ )

https://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/bowls/predictions

[Lobot]

USA Today: Birmingham vs. Ball State

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2019/11/12/bowl-projections-oregon-passes-alabama-college-football-playoff/2561990001/

[Lobot]

ESPN.

Bonagura :Cotton Bowl vs. Oregon
Schlabach: Liberty vs. Iowa St.

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/28048653/college-football-bowl-projections

[Gilenerm]

If we go to the AAC Championship game, and we end up in the Liberty Bowl, we would play 3 games in a row in Memphis...

[Gilenerm]

If we go to the AAC Championship game, and we end up in the Liberty Bowl, we would play 3 games in a row in Memphis...

I think this is if we lose a game before the tournament, for it to be in Memphis, right?

[Lobot]

If we're strictly talking about playing Memphis, the winner of the regular season game in Memphis is going to get home field for the AAC Championship. If we lose either of them, we're possibly in the Liberty Bowl for the Bowl game. So yeah, the possibility of us playing 3 in row there definitely exists. If we lose both of the first two, we probably aren't going to the Liberty Bowl at all.

Memphis is oddly in 3rd place in the West because they've played one less game than SMU and Navy. SMU and Navy can't both win out because they play each other on 11/23. Memphis owns the head to head tiebreaker over both of them.

Our 1 loss is tOSU. Memphis' loss was at Temple, in conference. If we beat Memphis in the regular season game, we'll be in the conference championship game against the winner of SMU at Navy, provided the winner doesn't lose another game before or after that. We would host the conference championship game at Nippert in this scenario unless we lose another game.

Also, If Navy beats SMU and we beat Memphis, all heck breaks loose for Navy because the Army vs Navy game is AFTER the AAC Champsionship on the schedule. There is a scenario here were Navy could be playing Army for a birth in the Cotton Bowl if they win out and get by the East champ in the Championship game. Having to wait for that game to be over on 12/14 would screw up the entire bowl picture for everyone except the CFP teams, from the NY6 games on down.

There's also a scenario where UC doesn't make the AAC Championship game at all by losing to either USF or Memphis plus a loss to Temple. That would put us in a a tiebreaker with Temple and we'd lose the head to head tiebreaker with them. Temple is the most important game remaining on the schedule. Beat Temple and we play for the title even if we lose the other two.


I think I got most of that right.

[Lobot]

Oh and this doesn't even account for what happens if the AAC beats itself up and the Mountain West gets the bid.

[richard k.]

I. Temple is the most important game remaining on the schedule. Beat Temple and we play for the title even if we lose the other two.


I think I got most of that right.

You got the single most important thing right - the Temple game is THE most important game left on the schedule. Win that and we are in the championship game. Would it be terrific to win the other 2 and play the "big" game at the Nip, sure, but lose to Temple and there may not be a championship game for the Cats, here or elsewhere.

[Gilenerm]

If we're strictly talking about playing Memphis, the winner of the regular season game in Memphis is going to get home field for the AAC Championship. If we lose either of them, we're possibly in the Liberty Bowl for the Bowl game. So yeah, the possibility of us playing 3 in row there definitely exists. If we lose both of the first two, we probably aren't going to the Liberty Bowl at all.

Memphis is oddly in 3rd place in the West because they've played one less game than SMU and Navy. SMU and Navy can't both win out because they play each other on 11/23. Memphis owns the head to head tiebreaker over both of them.

Our 1 loss is tOSU. Memphis' loss was at Temple, in conference. If we beat Memphis in the regular season game, we'll be in the conference championship game against the winner of SMU at Navy, provided the winner doesn't lose another game before or after that. We would host the conference championship game at Nippert in this scenario unless we lose another game.

Also, If Navy beats SMU and we beat Memphis, all heck breaks loose for Navy because the Army vs Navy game is AFTER the AAC Champsionship on the schedule. There is a scenario here were Navy could be playing Army for a birth in the Cotton Bowl if they win out and get by the East champ in the Championship game. Having to wait for that game to be over on 12/14 would screw up the entire bowl picture for everyone except the CFP teams, from the NY6 games on down.

There's also a scenario where UC doesn't make the AAC Championship game at all by losing to either USF or Memphis plus a loss to Temple. That would put us in a a tiebreaker with Temple and we'd lose the head to head tiebreaker with them. Temple is the most important game remaining on the schedule. Beat Temple and we play for the title even if we lose the other two.


I think I got most of that right.

Thanks Brent! My head hurts now...

[Lobot]

ESPN :

Bonaguara Cotton Bowl vs. Florida (ahhhh)
Schlabach: Liberty Bowl vs. TCU.

[richard k.]

ESPN :

Bonaguara Cotton Bowl vs. Florida (ahhhh)
Schlabach: Liberty Bowl vs. TCU.

At least these are bowls you would want to go to - I was at the Sugar Bowl the last time we played Florida in a bowl game and it wasn't pretty - but this is a quite different Florida team and it could well be a very interesting game. Anyhow, hope one of these actually pans out.

[Lobot]

Athletic churns out its predictions for this week and throws us a curve ball.

Belk Bowl vs. The U

[Lobot]

And the Athletic has changed gears. Vs Louisville in The Music City Bowl