Bubble Watch / Bracketology

[GoBearcats31]

Probably was premature for me to fire this thread up again.

But here are some teams to keep an eye on today:
- 11:30 - Richmond versus St. Joe's (R is in current projections as "AQ" but will drop out I believe with an L this week -- see UD, below)
- 12:00 - Michigan State versus Minnesota (MSU not playing well but metrics keeping them in the field -- but getting close)
- 2:30 - St. John's versus Seton Hall (SJU could be out with a loss; SHU seems in for now...)
- 2:30 - Wake versus Pitt (loser is probably out, winner still has a chance)
- 3:00 - TCU versus #1 Houston (feels like a TCU win helps UC here)
- 6:30 - Iowa versus Ohio State (loser out, winner might have a chance -- OSU more ground to make up than Iowa)
- 7:00 - Kansas State versus #7 Iowa State (bubble implications for KSU plus debatable who UC would want to face if they advance)
- 7:00 - Texas A&M versus Ole Miss (A&M is right on the bubble - loss would be big)
- 7:30 - #24 Dayton versus Duquesne (bubble teams want to see Dayton run the table)
- 9:30 - Villanova versus #10 Marquette (Nova needs the W but MU will be w/o its best player so a win may not move the needle a ton)
- 9:30 - Virginia versus Boston College (Mason Madsen could help bubble teams by taking out UVA, who is possibly in for now)
- 11:30 - New Mexico versus Boise State (huge game for New Mexico, who may not be able to afford an L here)
- 11:30 - Colorado versus Utah (CU is right there - loss and they could fall out; Utah and Gabe Madsen slightly bubbly)

[Lobot]

UC got a 20th win and jumped to 34 in NET up from 43 this morning. Baylor hanging tight at 14.

[GoBearcats31]

The consensus among bracket folks is that a win over Kansas would not do a ton for UC and there are still some big holes in the resume.

But I also don't think Wednesday opinions on Twitter accounted for the jump UC would make in the metrics (though a human can slight UC for KU's injuries in a way the computers cannot) - so they could be jumping back into the bubble picture on many updates today.

Lose to Baylor, it was a nice few days. Win against Baylor, and I think people will have to start taking UC seriously. Still probably need at least one more win and make the finals, but would be fun to be in the discussion again.

Then again, I'm trying to brace myself for UC to become the poster child for why the NET and other metrics are flawed (i.e., becoming one of the highest rated teams ever left out).

[D.A.H.]

USF is going to be a really interesting case if they don't win the AAC tournament. They played a very unbalanced conference schedule, by far the easiest. Four of the five teams they played twice are at the bottom of the standings (UTSA, Temple, Tulsa, Rice). The two best teams they only played at home (FAU, SMU). So despite going 17-1 in the league (if they beat Tulsa tomorrow), they will only have a single Q1 win. But they have two Q4 losses and their net ranking is all the way down at #73. They're in the AP Top 25 but I don't think they get an at-large.

i agree. as much as the committee talks about metrics, USF ain't got many good ones going for it.

[sedz]

USF is going to be a really interesting case if they don't win the AAC tournament. They played a very unbalanced conference schedule, by far the easiest. Four of the five teams they played twice are at the bottom of the standings (UTSA, Temple, Tulsa, Rice). The two best teams they only played at home (FAU, SMU). So despite going 17-1 in the league (if they beat Tulsa tomorrow), they will only have a single Q1 win. But they have two Q4 losses and their net ranking is all the way down at #73. They're in the AP Top 25 but I don't think they get an at-large.

[Carthage World]

We surprisingly jumped 1 spot in NET overnight from #45 to #44 despite suffering a 18-point loss.

Our home win over TCU is now Q1 (for the time being) with the Horned Frogs rising to #30, which gives us a 4-7 Q1 record.

Next weekend's game against Kansas State would currently be Q2 for us considering the Wildcats rose to #73 after their win over BYU yesterday. KSU has WVU at home Monday evening which could give them an opportunity to boost their ranking more with a sizable victory.

We need to go 3-1 over these last two weeks just to re-enter the bubble conversation before the Big 12 tourney, but we aren't as "out of it" as yesterday's loss may make it seem.

[Lobot]

The Athletic folks have us listed in the next four out category going into today. They had a conversation with Charles McClelland (no relation to the RB), who is the current Selection Committee Chair. Somewhere in a different interview, UC came up specifically and our sub .500 conference record was mentioned as a reason why we would not get in currently. ($)

https://theathletic.com/5293192/2024...es-mcclelland/

[Lobot]

I'm not in the mood to do the heavy lifting on the stats tonight but I think it's safe to say regardless of the rest of the season, we need a couple of Q1 wins in KC to have a shot at the NCAAs

Seeing as how this team seems to play better on the road, we might get that depending on the Big XII tournament draw.

[sedz]

We're off the board entirely in today's 131sports bracketology update. Not even in the next four out. James Madison, Drake, and Princeton are ahead of us.

[Carthage World]

Our NET ranking dropped 6 spots from #39 to #45 overnight.

We're going to have to win an extra Q1 game to atone for the bad loss. Winning at TCU or Houston over our next two games would give us a glimmer hope again.

[Carthage World]

Kansas State (NET #81) has the following games left:

BYU
West Virginia
@Cincinnati
@Kansas
Iowa State

We obviously need to beat them on 3/2 but otherwise we need to cheer for them in every remaining game for them to finish top 75.

I'm afraid they may need 3 more wins to hit that mark.

[Carthage World]

Here is UCF's (NET #73) remaining schedule:

Texas Tech
@Oklahoma St
Iowa State
Houston
@TCU

If they go at least 2-3 and don't get blown out in any game, I'd like their chances of staying in the top 75. However, it appears to be a very tall task at the moment.

[sedz]

Some Wednesday games of note:

Oklahoma State at Cincinnati, 7:00 – ESPN+
Providence at Xavier, 8:00 – CBSSN (unfortunately, root for X to avoid giving PC a Q1 road win)
Nebraska at Indiana, 8:30 – BTN (Nebraska 1-7 on the road - 1-8 with a Q2 loss would not help their cause)
Ole Miss at Mississippi State, 9:00 – ESPN2 (maybe take the home team)
Colorado State at New Mexico, 10:00 - CBSSN

There are numerous games involving solid mid-majors who are in the picture but not sure if any could get in as an at-large selection. Also Memphis and St. John’s, both of which seemed to have fallen off the bubble, are in action tonight as well.

Bonus:
Clemson at Georgia Tech, 7:00 – ACC (GT seeking its fourth Q1 win to perhaps help UC resume)

One more:
Belmont at Drake, 8:00 – ESPN+

Drake (NET 44) is sneaking up to the bubble and has a couple more quality games left. If they sweep those they'll be 7-2 in Q1/2 (with 3 bad losses). Belmont won the first matchup by 22.

[sedz]

I think these are the highest rated teams in NET history to miss the Tournament

33 NC State (2019)
35 Clemson (2019)
38 Texas (2019)
40 Oklahoma (2022)
40 Rutgers (2023)

Rutgers got in the 2022 NCAA Tournament at #77, the lowest NET to make it

A few changes:
38 North Texas (2023)
39 Oklahoma (2022)
40 Xavier (2022)

I need to retract my dismissal of NET ranking as an important factor. While teams in the 30s have missed the cut, it's very rare. In the past few years, every team ranked 37 or better has made the field. Prior to that was the cancelled 2020 tourney and 2019 was the first year using NET, so the teams ranked 33 and 35 that missed that year could be considered outliers (but no team has ever missed the cut with a ranking of 32 or better).

Right now our NET ranking is 39, which puts us right near the theoretical cut line but behind bubble teams Gonzaga, Wake Forest, and Villanova (and even SMU).

On the other end, Providence, Butler, Iowa, Seton Hall, and Ole Miss have NET rankings in the 60s. It's rare but not impossible for those teams to make the field:

77 Rutgers (2022)
72 Wichita St (2021)
70 Michigan St (2021)
67 Pitt (2023)
66 Arizona St (2023)

[GoBearcats31]

Some Wednesday games of note:

Oklahoma State at Cincinnati, 7:00 – ESPN+
Providence at Xavier, 8:00 – CBSSN (unfortunately, root for X to avoid giving PC a Q1 road win)
Nebraska at Indiana, 8:30 – BTN (Nebraska 1-7 on the road - 1-8 with a Q2 loss would not help their cause)
Ole Miss at Mississippi State, 9:00 – ESPN2 (maybe take the home team)
Colorado State at New Mexico, 10:00 - CBSSN

There are numerous games involving solid mid-majors who are in the picture but not sure if any could get in as an at-large selection. Also Memphis and St. John’s, both of which seemed to have fallen off the bubble, are in action tonight as well.

Bonus:
Clemson at Georgia Tech, 7:00 – ACC (GT seeking its fourth Q1 win to perhaps help UC resume)