Bubble Watch / Bracketology

[longtimefan]

The road win at Texas Tech looks better and better. We’re the only team to beat them in their building, Kansas lost there by 29. Couple that with the win at BYU, not sure how many bubble teams have two road wins as good as ours.

[Carthage World]

From my point of view, we're on the outside looking in and we need to step up and play our way in. It seems like Saturday's win at UCF didn't move the needle much. Despite being a road Q1 win, it did come against a team that's not making the tournament as an at-large so there's probably a cap on how much that win helps.

Bid thieves seem to happen every year, and I expect more of the same. Dayton is a tourney lock, but there are a number of other A-10 teams capable of winning that conference tournament and knocking Dayton out. Same with Florida Atlantic and St. Mary's in their conferences. Indiana State and Grand Canyon also become bubble teams too if they can't take care of their business. To be safe, we need to climb our way into the "last 4 bye" picture with anticipation that bid thieves are going to eat into the "last 4 in" group.

I'm looking at the schedule trying to map out a path, and I think we need at least five more wins (including reaching the Thursday quarterfinals in the Big 12 tournament). The easiest path is winning the 3 home games, which we need to win, plus stealing one of the road games and winning at least one game in the B12 tournament. Winning at Houston is the one wildcard that would change the math in our favor, but it's unlikely. That leaves either at TCU or at Oklahoma. The benefit of beating TCU is we'd be 2-0 against them and would push them back toward the bubble. Either way, one more road win would be another Q1 road win against a likely tournament at-large team.

Not much to argue with here. I think the path you laid out in the last paragraph is the bare minimum that needs to happen for us to even be 50/50 on Selection Sunday. In that scenario we'd finish with a 5-9 Q1 record and 2-2 Q2 record. We desperately need UCF to stay top 75 (currently #68) and could greatly benefit from Kansas St (#81) pulling off a few more upset wins so our home game against them can rise to Q2.

Looking at our remaining road games, TCU is 5-3 since we first met and Oklahoma is 3-5. Both games are winnable but will be equally tough.

Our NET ranking has steadily dropped over the course of Big 12 play. It was up to #24 after the BYU win and currently sits at #37. Even if we only win one more road game this regular season, winning our 3 home games by sizable margins versus barely squeaking them out could be the difference between 10 or so spots in the NET rankings. A higher NET ranking could be as good as 1 or 2 extra quality wins through the eyes of the committee.

[Cyclone792]

From my point of view, we're on the outside looking in and we need to step up and play our way in. It seems like Saturday's win at UCF didn't move the needle much. Despite being a road Q1 win, it did come against a team that's not making the tournament as an at-large so there's probably a cap on how much that win helps.

Bid thieves seem to happen every year, and I expect more of the same. Dayton is a tourney lock, but there are a number of other A-10 teams capable of winning that conference tournament and knocking Dayton out. Same with Florida Atlantic and St. Mary's in their conferences. Indiana State and Grand Canyon also become bubble teams too if they can't take care of their business. To be safe, we need to climb our way into the "last 4 bye" picture with anticipation that bid thieves are going to eat into the "last 4 in" group.

I'm looking at the schedule trying to map out a path, and I think we need at least five more wins (including reaching the Thursday quarterfinals in the Big 12 tournament). The easiest path is winning the 3 home games, which we need to win, plus stealing one of the road games and winning at least one game in the B12 tournament. Winning at Houston is the one wildcard that would change the math in our favor, but it's unlikely. That leaves either at TCU or at Oklahoma. The benefit of beating TCU is we'd be 2-0 against them and would push them back toward the bubble. Either way, one more road win would be another Q1 road win against a likely tournament at-large team.

[sedz]

The top ranked bracketologist still has us as the second team out, sandwiched between Utah and Seton Hall.

His last four in are Ole Miss, Nevada, Providence, Gonzaga.

[GoBearcats31]

SMU could've named the score in that game. Memphis is nowhere near the same team that we knew from the past few seasons in the AAC.

Wouldn't be surprised to see SMU jump us in the NET rankings tomorrow.

Yep. SMU 34, UC 37.

[GoBearcats31]

Second team out here https://x.com/t3bracketology/status/...429-7Zsp1zj4Tg

I think we’ll see UC barely in (Dayton) or barely out in most early week brackets.

[GoBearcats31]

Utah beats UCLA on wild last possession. Finger roll layup hits the top of the backboard, teammate putback good with 0.2. 70-69.

[bearcatbret]

UC's favorite predictor still has UC out of the field. Cincinnati Remains in Joe Lunardi's First Four Out After UCF Win (heartlandcollegesports.com)

[Carthage World]

Seton Hall gets a big road win at St. John's in a double bubble

Memphis falls by 27 at SMU -- Tigers are toast

Northwestern picks up a 4 point road win at Indiana in a game less close than the final score appeared

SMU could've named the score in that game. Memphis is nowhere near the same team that we knew from the past few seasons in the AAC.

Wouldn't be surprised to see SMU jump us in the NET rankings tomorrow.

[Carthage World]

Jeff Borzello: “That's a soul-crushing loss for St. John's, blowing a 19-point lead & falling by 6 to fellow bubble team Seton Hall. Red Storm scored just 21 points in the 2nd half. They're now 2-8 in their last 10 games and sit ninth in the Big East. Can't afford another regular-season loss.”

21 2nd half points is a flattering stat. St. John's didn't make their second field goal of the half until the 6:48 mark.

They looked horrendous and I can't see them playing their way back onto the bubble after that toothless 2nd half performance.

[GoBearcats31]

Seton Hall gets a big road win at St. John's in a double bubble

Memphis falls by 27 at SMU -- Tigers are toast

Northwestern picks up a 4 point road win at Indiana in a game less close than the final score appeared

Jeff Borzello: “That's a soul-crushing loss for St. John's, blowing a 19-point lead & falling by 6 to fellow bubble team Seton Hall. Red Storm scored just 21 points in the 2nd half. They're now 2-8 in their last 10 games and sit ninth in the Big East. Can't afford another regular-season loss.”

[GoBearcats31]

Seton Hall gets a big road win at St. John's in a double bubble

Memphis falls by 27 at SMU -- Tigers are toast

Northwestern picks up a 4 point road win at Indiana in a game less close than the final score appeared

[Carthage World]

South Florida has a big early lead on Florida Atlantic right now on ESPN. USF doesn't have great resume, with only 3 quality wins and 2 Q4 losses. But if they win out they would be 2-0 in Q1 and 4-3 in Q2.

USF had a 24-point 2nd half lead get whittled all the way down to 1 with 20 seconds left but they do enough late to hold on and win by 4.

[sedz]

South Florida has a big early lead on Florida Atlantic right now on ESPN. USF doesn't have great resume, with only 3 quality wins and 2 Q4 losses. But if they win out they would be 2-0 in Q1 and 4-3 in Q2.

[Carthage World]

Two notable bubble-on-bubble match-ups today:

Memphis (#81) @ SMU (#41) - a SMU win would only be Q3 and probably wouldn't move the needle for a team with an 0-3 Q1 record.

Seton Hall (#68) @ St. John's (#45) - St. John's would still have a 2-9 Q1 record with a win (while Seton Hall would be 5-5 in Q1) so they're probably the safer bet here.