Bubble Watch / Bracketology

[longtimefan]

Ridiculous low percentage passes.

[swilsonsp4]

Duquesne upset UD. There will be a stolen bid, as the Flyers were the only team close to consideration.

[sedz]

Big W for Providence, their 6th Q1 win.

[GoBearcats31]

Yes, Joe Lunardi isn’t a great bracketologist …

But he just moved UC to 8th out, behind Providence (up 3 at half to very good Creighton) and Iowa (on the brink of losing to OSU who is similarly situated to UC).

Texas A&M last team in is currently up against a solid Ole Miss.

[sedz]

Maryland loses by 31 to Wisconsin.

The Terps came in at #72 in the NET and surely will drop outside the Top 75 -- which could have some bubble implications:
- Villanova home win would drop from Q2 to Q3
- Michigan State's wins will drop to Q2 road and Q3 home Ws
- Iowa went 0-2 versus Maryland, so those will drop to Q2 road and Q3 home losses
- OSU's win (last for Holtmann) will drop to a Q3 home win

Puts all those games back to what they were a couple days ago. Maryland entered the week at #77, but moved into the top 75 after beating Rutgers by 14 yesterday.

[GoBearcats31]

St. John's up 9 versus Seton Hall -- seemed like SHU was probably in and SJU would be out with a loss. Needless to say, huge for Rick Pitino's squad if they can hold on. But Seton Hall shouldn't be sitting comfortably at all -- best case scenario: Dayton. Came into the game at #56 in KenPom and 64 in the NET. They'd have to be one of the lower NET teams to get in if they fall today and still dance.

Pitt up 15 on Wake. Pitt could slide into the field (they began in Dayton last year, could be there this year). Wake is done with an L.

St. John's wins big

Wake made it interesting but going to lose. They entered the day 36 in the NET and top 25 in Ken Pom -- and they will likely be one of the higher rated teams to miss the NCAA Tournament.

[GoBearcats31]

Maryland loses by 31 to Wisconsin.

The Terps came in at #72 in the NET and surely will drop outside the Top 75 -- which could have some bubble implications:
- Villanova home win would drop from Q2 to Q3
- Michigan State's wins will drop to Q2 road and Q3 home Ws
- Iowa went 0-2 versus Maryland, so those will drop to Q2 road and Q3 home losses
- OSU's win (last for Holtmann) will drop to a Q3 home win

[GoBearcats31]

St. John's up 9 versus Seton Hall -- seemed like SHU was probably in and SJU would be out with a loss. Needless to say, huge for Rick Pitino's squad if they can hold on. But Seton Hall shouldn't be sitting comfortably at all -- best case scenario: Dayton. Came into the game at #56 in KenPom and 64 in the NET. They'd have to be one of the lower NET teams to get in if they fall today and still dance.

Pitt up 15 on Wake. Pitt could slide into the field (they began in Dayton last year, could be there this year). Wake is done with an L.

[bearcatbret]

MSU wins probably knocking Minnesota to the NIT. UNC blew out FSU sending FSU to the NIT.

[GoBearcats31]

Richmond goes down to St Joes, probably knocking them out.

Gooooo Dayton Flyers

[sedz]

Richmond goes down to St Joes, probably knocking them out.

[GoBearcats31]

MSU down by 2 at the half against MINN. UConn up 1 over x at the half.

Michigan State has an extremely unimpressive resume -- but really good metrics, so they are near a lock. But if they lose to Minnesota, I would send them down I-75 to Dayton for the First Four.

[bearcatbret]

MSU down by 2 at the half against MINN. UConn up 1 over x at the half.

[sedz]

We're back in the field in Torvik's automated bracketology algorithm. So the silicon chips are impressed with our Kansas win at least.

[Carthage World]

Probably was premature for me to fire this thread up again.

But here are some teams to keep an eye on today:
- 11:30 - Richmond versus St. Joe's (R is in current projections as "AQ" but will drop out I believe with an L this week -- see UD, below)
- 12:00 - Michigan State versus Minnesota (MSU not playing well but metrics keeping them in the field -- but getting close)
- 2:30 - St. John's versus Seton Hall (SJU could be out with a loss; SHU seems in for now...)
- 2:30 - Wake versus Pitt (loser is probably out, winner still has a chance)
- 3:00 - TCU versus #1 Houston (feels like a TCU win helps UC here)
- 6:30 - Iowa versus Ohio State (loser out, winner might have a chance -- OSU more ground to make up than Iowa)
- 7:00 - Kansas State versus #7 Iowa State (bubble implications for KSU plus debatable who UC would want to face if they advance)
- 7:00 - Texas A&M versus Ole Miss (A&M is right on the bubble - loss would be big)
- 7:30 - #24 Dayton versus Duquesne (bubble teams want to see Dayton run the table)
- 9:30 - Villanova versus #10 Marquette (Nova needs the W but MU will be w/o its best player so a win may not move the needle a ton)
- 9:30 - Virginia versus Boston College (Mason Madsen could help bubble teams by taking out UVA, who is possibly in for now)
- 11:30 - New Mexico versus Boise State (huge game for New Mexico, who may not be able to afford an L here)
- 11:30 - Colorado versus Utah (CU is right there - loss and they could fall out; Utah and Gabe Madsen slightly bubbly)

Great update.

Although they don't play until tomorrow, we also want Florida Atlantic to run the table in the AAC, just to ensure that no bid stealers emerge from that conference as well.