Bubble Watch / Bracketology

[sedz]

It's worth noting that many brackets (Lunardi included) now have South Florida in the field as the American auto bid. That takes one at-large spot off the board. I think it's likely we'll have at least one bid steal this year. If not in the American then maybe from the A10, MVC, WAC, or WCC.

On Monday's bracketmatrix update we're the second to last team in the field, just above St Johns. The first four out are Seton Hall, Richmond, Gonzaga, and Providence.

Wake Forest lost last night and now sits at 0-4 in Q1. They still have 3-4 chances left.

Edit: Lunardi lists Richmond as an auto bid too. It's hard to tell if they should be considered an at-large or not since their average seed is 11.86. Lunardi is assuming two bid steals right now.

[GoBearcats31]

Our weekly Tuesday update from Joe Lunardi who, again, is not that great of a bracketologist but just roll it with it, folks https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/st...ld-predictions

Last Four Byes: Butler, Boise State, TCU, Nebraska
Last Four In: New Mexico, Ole Miss, Nevada, Utah
First Four Out: Wake Forest, Gonzaga, Seton Hall, Cincinnati
Next Four Out: St. John's, Colorado, Providence, Villanova

Butler hosts #4 Marquette tonight at 6:30
UC hosts #10 Iowa State tonight at 7:00 **massive for UC's resume**
St. John's plays at Providence tonight at 7:00 in a double bubble
Ole Miss plays at #22 Kentucky tonight at 9:00
New Mexico plays at Nevada tonight at 11:00 in a double bubble

Seton Hall hosts Xavier at 7:00 on Wednesday in a bubbly game

Gonzaga plays at LMU Thursday at 9:00
Colorado plays at UCLA Thursday at 9:00
Utah plays at USC Thursday at 11:00

[sedz]

One significant bubble game tonight, as Wake Forest travels to Duke looking for their first Q1 win, and just their second quality win away from home. They do have a couple of borderline home wins over #31 and #32, but this would be a flagship Q1 road win for their resume.

[GoBearcats31]

Villanova and Seton Hall faced off in a bubble game today. Villanova picked up the Q2 win and Seton Hall gets a Q1 loss. Seton Hall is now Q1 4-5, Q2 1-2, and 2 bad losses. Villanova improves to Q1 3-6, Q2 4-2, and 3 bad losses. The Big East is loaded with bubble teams, as those two are joined by Providence, St Johns, and Butler (and maybe Xavier). If they continue to beat each other and lose to the three teams at the top, they might all miss out.

I feel like sometime in the last 4-6 years or so, there were a # of bubble teams in the Big East who did all beat each other but in the process started handing out Q1/Q2 wins -- which helped get a bunch of them in. And then they generally struggled in the NCAA Tournament b/c they weren't particularly good to begin with.


Massive week for the Bearcats with a Q1 home game versus Iowa State and a Q1 road game at UCF. In theory, they could probably afford to go 1-1 -- assuming they pick up some more good wins/avoid bad losses down the stretch -- but no reason they can't go 2-0. The Big 12 is tough and Iowa State is no doubt a good team, but UC is currently 2-3 in Big 12 home games and really needs to defend the home court on Tuesday. A top 10 win over the Cyclones tomorrow would be huge, whereas a loss puts you in a must win-ish game at UCF in what will sure to be a rock fight on Saturday.

[sedz]

Villanova and Seton Hall faced off in a bubble game today. Villanova picked up the Q2 win and Seton Hall gets a Q1 loss. Seton Hall is now Q1 4-5, Q2 1-2, and 2 bad losses. Villanova improves to Q1 3-6, Q2 4-2, and 3 bad losses. The Big East is loaded with bubble teams, as those two are joined by Providence, St Johns, and Butler (and maybe Xavier). If they continue to beat each other and lose to the three teams at the top, they might all miss out.

[sedz]

You can bet that Kentucky will be in. Regardless of what they do.

That's what everyone said in 2013.

[Oldtimer_UC_fan]

You can bet that Kentucky will be in. Regardless of what they do.

[sedz]

Saturday Recap:
...

Great summary. I'd also add that Texas A&M and Gonzaga picked up Q1 wins. Gonzaga is similar to Memphis - their resumes aren't great right now but they have several Q1 games remaining.

Kentucky is in a major slide and they will be on the bubble if they don't turn it around soon. They're now just Q1 2-5, Q2 3-1 with a Q3 loss. Two of those Q2 wins are close to dropping to Q3.

New Mexico picked up a bad home loss to UNLV. Their resume isn't great either: Q1 2-2, Q2 2-2 and now a Q3 loss. All of their quality wins are on their home floor and their non-con SOS is 258.

Most bracketologists have Kentucky and New Mexico in the 6-7 seed range, which is solely based on metrics and almost ignores their team sheets. They will be interesting test cases if it stays that way.

[Carthage World]

Saturday Recap:

UC is the last team in on the latest Lundardi update https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/st...ld-predictions

Some bubble teams to watch this weekend
Nebraska - Saturday versus Michigan (#103 NET)
Butler - Saturday versus Providence (#56)
Ole Miss - no game
Florida - Saturday versus Auburn (#7)
Mississippi State - Saturday at Missouri (#145)
Washington State - Saturday at Oregon (#56)
Seton Hall - Sunday at Villanova (#47 -- though according to XU fans, local media they may be #1)
St. John's - Saturday at Marquette (#11)
Wake Forest - Saturday versus NC State (#80)
Colorado - Saturday at Arizona (#3)
Nevada - Friday/tonight versus San Diego State (21)
Providence - Saturday at Butler (#51)
Xavier - Saturday versus Creighton (#19)
Villanova - Sunday versus Seton Hall (#67)
Memphis - Sunday versus Tulane (#118)

Nebraska won by 20 - rose 4 spots to #53 in NET (Q1 3-5, Q2 3-3, no bad losses)

Butler won by 3 - rose 1 spot to #50 in NET (Q1 3-7, Q2 4-1, no bad losses)

Florida won by 16 - rose 7 spots to #31 in NET (Q1 2-7, Q2 3-0, no bad losses)

Miss St won by 24 - rose 9 spots to #35 in NET (Q1 3-6, Q2 3-0, 1 Q3 & 1 Q4 loss)

Wash St won by 6 - rose 1 spot to #40 in NET (Q1 4-3, Q2 4-2, 1 Q3 loss)

St. John's lost by 11 - dropped 2 spots to #45 in NET (Q1 2-8, Q2 5-1, 1 Q3 loss)

Wake Forest won by 4 - dropped 3 spots to #36 in NET (Q1 0-3, Q2 5-4, no bad losses)

Colorado lost by 20 - dropped 8 spots to #39 in NET (Q1 1-5, Q2 5-3, no bad losses)

Nevada won by 4 - stay at #46 in NET (Q1 5-2, Q2 0-2, 1 Q3 loss)

Providence lost by 3 - dropped 1 spot to #57 in NET (Q1 4-6, Q2 2-3, no bad losses)

Xavier lost by 7 - dropped 2 spots to #52 in NET (Q1 2-8, Q2 5-1, 2 Q3 losses)

[sedz]

@BracketGuyDave:

”Here's a reason why simply looking at standalone Quad victories can be problematic (without context). Just an example: Illinois is 3-4 vs. Quad 1 opponents. One of those (Ohio State - NET 71 as a road win) is against a team nowhere near the NCAA tournament.”

Not sure why that's problematic. It's still tough to beat Ohio St on the road even if they aren't a tournament team. Outside of their recent loss to Indiana, they've beaten every non-tournament team they've played at home including several top 100 teams. And they beat Alabama on a neutral floor.

Quad 1 is a top 50 neutral game, so it's a good general grouping of tournament level games. 75 on the road is as difficult as 50 neutral. Some kind of sorting system is necessary to compare teams. No human con consider every game that every team has played and make a complete accurate appraisal. Sorting games into four groups is very helpful.

And the committee team sheets split Q1 into two further groups, which aren't often mentioned. Q1-A is top a 25 neutral game (15 home, 40 road). I'm sure the committee gets into the details after using quadrant records as the main sorting tool.

[GoBearcats31]

@BracketGuyDave:

”Here's a reason why simply looking at standalone Quad victories can be problematic (without context). Just an example: Illinois is 3-4 vs. Quad 1 opponents. One of those (Ohio State - NET 71 as a road win) is against a team nowhere near the NCAA tournament.”

[GoBearcats31]

X drops a big chance at home versus Creighton. Made a big run late to make the score respectable.

[Carthage World]

Nevada beat SDSU 70-66 in OT last night for their 5th Q1 win. They rose from 48 to 46 in NET as a result.

SDSU had chances to close the game out late in regulation but couldn't get the necessary stops down the stretch.

[bearcatbret]

I just have to say that Michigan stinks this year.

[swilsonsp4]

VCU (#79 NET) just knocked off UD in Richmond, 44-42. That's VCU's first Q1 win (1-3).