Iowa St. 2/13 7:00 ESPN2

[sedz]

We have a hole to fill with Vik's lack of production, and we haven't yet found an answer. Somebody has to create offense. We start two guys who are defense first players in Aziz and Newman. Their usage rates are only 15 and 16 respectively. That means they each do something to end a possession (shot, free throw, turnover) on only one of every six possessions. The team has to average out to 20, so the gap is made up with players with a usage around 25 (ending 1 of every 4 possessions). Until recently that had been Vik, Skillings, and the PGs. With Vik's production dropping off a cliff, we are stuck with Skillings and the PGs having to do all the work on offense.

That's the point I was trying to make last night. The PGs made bad plays and are responsible for their TOs, but they almost always had the ball in their hands. We're relying on inexperienced players with poor offensive numbers to be primary creators. Not a good recipe. Last night Jizzle's usage was 29 and Day Day's was 34. Those are Jarron Cumberland or Sean Kilpatrick levels of usage from players who are nowhere near that caliber.

Newman needs to step it up. His usage was under 9 last night. He's capable of creating at times and needs to take pressure off our guards.

Jamille can also create, and the under 16 usage we saw from him last night isn't good enough. Vik's season usage is 23, and I think Jamille needs to get there.

Simas and Skillings have been around 20, which is the sweet spot. Ideally you want a balanced team where everyone is around 20.

[bba_1979]

I hope I didn't offend anyone with my post. Did not intend to demean anyone. No, I'm not a coach and have never been a coach. Just a long time fan making some observations.

I'm not at practices, so I have no idea what happens there. I wonder if / how much Aziz and Jamille participated prior to their eligibility. Was Vik the 5 in most pre-season practice? Has Aziz and Jamille taking over the 5 role, moving Vik to the 4 just thrown everything out of whack? Is Vik physically OK? He appears to get tired quickly. To me, the team does not appear to have adapted to Aziz and Jamille starting to play. This includes the coaching staff.

This appears to be a team made up of individually talented players that really are not complimentary to one another. When several players are "on," they seem to have the ability to score and play defense enough to win. If not, they just don't have that something to get them a win. 9 losses total by an average of 5.5 points, 7 league losses by an average of 4.4 points. 7 of those losses to top 25 teams. Close doesn't count, but there have been few games that were not winnable for this team. As someone earlier said, this team still needs to learn how to win.

Looking at last year, WVU was in a similar position to UC and got in. UC needs to take advantage of an "easier" balance of their schedule and get some wins. I think NCAA tourney is still there for the taking, but they have to take it.

I'm still on the optimistic side of things. Just don't care for the bumpy ride.

[Lobot]

Lobot re: Paveletzke and Fredrick ... funny how our miracle shot doesn't count (because clearly late, of course) but Paveletzke continues the trend of UC opponents hitting really difficult shots late in the clock. It was 27-24 then (so 29-24 after that) as part of an 11-0 run. You'd like to think a stop there could have helped, though who knows if it would have mattered with the turnover issues.

Prior to Paveletzke's miracle shot, Aziz missed two free throws which was as good as a turnover.

Maybe I'm not paying attention but I don't think I've seen Aziz front rim two foul shots like he did last night. ?!?!?! He's usually pretty decent at the line.

[leeraymond]

A few things from last night:

Obviously too many turnovers. You can't have 11 turnovers plus shot clock violations that originate at the PG position. Somebody needs to do the football thing and make them carry a basketball around campus and never lose possession of it. (only sort of kidding). I know our PGs don't have a ton of experieince at this level but that was a mess.

We tend to emerge from the locker room very flat regardless of the opponent. I'm not sure who's giving the pregame hype speech but something needs to change in in our pregame prep. We're lucky Iowa St couldn't find the hoop in the first 10:00 or so otherwise we would have been buried much earlier.

Adjustments need to be made. By that I mean coaching adjustments. When the defense is taking you out of your primary offense and you can't cut and screen, change something. Little or no ball movement on offense in the first half last night. Seems like a drill where you put 3 guys on the ball and practice against a half court trapping defense would have helped a lot. Maybe they couldn't simulate it well in practice? If there's a trap in the corner or the post, someone's open. You know it's coming, so get rid of it before the trap happens.

Starting front court went 0-6 from the field for the game and managed 3 pts at the line. Someone pointed out earlier that the offense flowed better when was Vik was involved in the high and low post, before Aziz and Jamille were eligible and you can definitely see that. I love Aziz's defense but he's a dead spot on offense against good defenders. Thankfully he rebounds pretty well.

How do you go 0-4 on lob attemps in the first half and keep throwing them? It made it to 0-7 before we got something out of it. I understand you're trying to throw over the defense but if it's not there don't throw that anymore. I'd guess everyone of those missed lobs was a turnover or close to it.

Refs totally bungled that last second heave by Paveletzke. Duded hopped twice and changed pivot feet and then launched a prayer. No call. They can't review the travel portion of that call but blatant miss by the stripes.

Bright spots:

Jizzle on offense. The team is better on offense with Jizzle in the game. 16 pts and 3 assists in 25 minutes last night.

Simas. Low shooting precentages against a good defense but he was the only guy in the starting lineup that was scoring and getting up shots.

Double Double for Dan. He continues to be very good off the bench. I can handle the inconsistency and occasional poor play if he's scoring and rebounding.

Nice to see CJ back on the floor and scoring even if that last second heave was after the buzzer. (Great shot though)

Box Score:

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-ba...meId/401603474

I agree with you that before Aziz and Reynolds were in the lineup, Vik and the scoring flowed better. Guess who was in the starting lineup before Aziz and Reynolds became eligible? Oguama!!! Once again, for about the tenth time, when Oguama was in the starting lineup, UC's scoring and defensive numbers were better. Every game that Oguama and Vik has started together, UC has won. When Oguama was in the starting lineup, Lakhin did NOT have all of these problems. Now all of this Vik stuff is truly hurting the team right now. The team right now really misses Lakhin's scoring. You would think that the coaching staff would see it too and try other starting lineups.

Also, every game that Oguama and Lakhin have started, UC has been leading at half time by 8 or more points. When Reynolds started the Evansville game, UC was down at half time by 8. When Skillings started the BYU game, UC was losing at the half. "The numbers don't lie". What do the UC coaching staff see that we do not?

Do you think that Miller has over-recruited at the 5 spot? There are 3 guys on the team that can play the 5. Miller may be making the mistake of trying to play all three of them. I wonder what Oguama is thinking when he looks out onto the floor and he sees the team losing another game.

[Bearcat93]

Are you accounting for the difference in schedule strength when Ody & Vik were winning?

[Carthage World]

I agree with you that before Aziz and Reynolds were in the lineup, Vik and the scoring flowed better. Guess who was in the starting lineup before Aziz and Reynolds became eligible? Oguama!!! Once again, for about the tenth time, when Oguama was in the starting lineup, UC's scoring and defensive numbers were better. Every game that Oguama and Vik has started together, UC has won. When Oguama was in the starting lineup, Lakhin did NOT have all of these problems. Now all of this Vik stuff is truly hurting the team right now. The team right now really misses Lakhin's scoring. You would think that the coaching staff would see it too and try other starting lineups.

Also, every game that Oguama and Lakhin have started, UC has been leading at half time by 8 or more points. When Reynolds started the Evansville game, UC was down at half time by 8. When Skillings started the BYU game, UC was losing at the half. "The numbers don't lie". What do the UC coaching staff see that we do not?

Do you think that Miller has over-recruited at the 5 spot? There are 3 guys on the team that can play the 5. Miller may be making the mistake of trying to play all three of them. I wonder what Oguama is thinking when he looks out onto the floor and he sees the team losing another game.

I generally think Oguama is outmatched against top tier competition (particularly on offense), but we're at the point now where he deserves another look with how inept some of the other bigs have been over these past few games.

I think if he enters games with the mindset (like how he had over the 2nd half of last season), he can give us a good energy boost.

[leeraymond]

Are you accounting for the difference in schedule strength when Ody & Vik were winning?

Yeah, I thought about that and you are correct. The competition was not as stiff. However, Oguama is a better man-to-man defender on the perimeter than Aziz, Reynolds, and Lakhin. Oguama is also a better perimeter defender than Skillings and Simas. Oguama harasses people with his defensive style similar to Newman. UC is playing decent enough defense to win in the BIG 12. However, the scoring is down from the non-conference. Imagine what the defense could be if Oguama was playing significant minutes. Check these stats out. For the season, UC is attempting 62.6 shots/game and making 27.6 shots/game. UC's opponents are taking 58.6 shots/game and are making 24 shots/game. When Oguama starts, UC takes 64 shots/game and makes 29 shots/game. When Oguama starts, the opponent takes 56.6 shots/game and makes 22 shots/game. If you do not believe the numbers, do the arithmetic for yourself. Oguama makes the team better when he plays. The coaching staff clearing has NOT done the analytics.

I find it amazing how the coaching staff has just thrown Oguama over to the side of the road and is treating him as if his playing has no bearing on wins and losses. They are wrong. "The numbers don't lie".

[Bearcat93]

Yeah, I hear you, Ody not getting many minutes in these conference games is a part of the issue, along with other playing time curiosities.

[leeraymond]

I generally think Oguama is outmatched against top tier competition (particularly on offense), but we're at the point now where he deserves another look with how inept some of the other bigs have been over these past few games.

I think if he enters games with the mindset (like how he had over the 2nd half of last season), he can give us a good energy boost.

Oguama is "outmatched?" What does that mean? Oguama is a world-class athlete and is very strong. I doubt that many college players are going to outmatch Oguama. Maybe taller bigger players may give him problems. However, just from looking at the players in the BIG 12, I think that Oguama can more than hold his own. There is only one way to find out. Miller has got to play him.

[GoBearcats31]

Speaking of Ody
https://gobearcats.com/news/2024/2/1...ecipients.aspx

University of Cincinnati student-athletes Ody Oguama (men's basketball) and Carly Glendinning (volleyball) were named the Jean Stephens Memorial Award honorees for this school year. Oguama, because of the ceremony taking place during Tuesday's game against No. 10 Iowa State, was honored pregame, with the full recognition at halftime. ... the Jean Stephens Memorial Award was instituted to recognize a female and male student-athlete for their high integrity, high ethical standards, respect for all persons and commitment to both UC Athletics and the University of Cincinnati.

[sedz]

Yeah, I thought about that and you are correct. The competition was not as stiff. However, Oguama is a better man-to-man defender on the perimeter than Aziz, Reynolds, and Lakhin. Oguama is also a better perimeter than Skillings and Simas. Oguama harasses people with his defensive style similar to Newman. UC is playing decent enough defense to win in the BIG 12. However, the scoring is down from the non-conference. Imagine what the defense could be if Oguama was playing significant minutes. Check these stats out. For the season, UC is attempting 62.6 shots/game and making 27.6 shots/game. UC's opponents are taking 58.6 shots/game and are making 24 shots/game. When Oguama starts, UC takes 64 shots/game and makes 29 shots/game. When Oguama starts, the opponent takes 56.6 shots/game and makes 22 shots/game. You do not believe the numbers, do the arithmetic for yourself. Oguama makes the team better when he plays. The coaching staff clearing has NOT done the analytics.

Ody has worse shooting, rebounding, and block rates than Aziz. So he's not going to get much playing time at the 5. And he has no offensive ability outside the paint, so he's a liability at the 4, especially on a team desperate for scoring options. I think we could pair him with Jamille for stretches, but only when Skillings is on the bench, so maybe 8 minutes a game.

The coaching staff probably uses analytics that have been developed and accepted by the basketball community over the last couple decades. One of those is box plus minus, which blends individual statistics with team performance when a player is on the court. Ody is a decent defender, but his offensive box plus minus is tied for second to last on our team at negative 1.1 (only Josh Reed is worse). He's tied with Jamille, who is starting to settle into the player he was at Temple. Jamille is playing much better over the last 4 games. In overall box plus minus, Ody is significantly worse than Aziz and Skillings.

Box plus minus was developed for the NBA where strength of schedule isn't nearly as much of an issue as it is in college. Evan Miya has attempted to account for that with a stat he developed called BPR - Bayesian Performance Rating. After adjusting Ody's stats for opponent strength, he's the second worst player on our team ahead of Jamille. But he has been playing better in limited minutes - he's seen the fourth best improvement over the last 10 days. Skillings, Jamille, and Jizzle have seen the biggest improvement over the last 10 days, while Aziz, Day Day, and Vik have seen the biggest regressions. I think we'd all agree with that using our eyes. Coaches usually look at things over a longer timespan though.

[leo from jersey]

Ody has worse shooting, rebounding, and block rates than Aziz. So he's not going to get much playing time at the 5. And he has no offensive ability outside the paint, so he's a liability at the 4, especially on a team desperate for scoring options. I think we could pair him with Jamille for stretches, but only when Skillings is on the bench, so maybe 8 minutes a game.

The coaching staff probably uses analytics that have been developed and accepted by the basketball community over the last couple decades. One of those is box plus minus, which blends individual statistics with team performance when a player is on the court. Ody is a decent defender, but his offensive box plus minus is tied for second to last on our team at negative 1.1 (only Josh Reed is worse). He's tied with Jamille, who is starting to settle into the player he was at Temple. Jamille is playing much better over the last 4 games. In overall box plus minus, Ody is significantly worse than Aziz and Skillings.

Box plus minus was developed for the NBA where strength of schedule isn't nearly as much of an issue as it is in college. Evan Miya has attempted to account for that with a stat he developed called BPR - Bayesian Performance Rating. After adjusting Ody's stats for opponent strength, he's the second worst player on our team ahead of Jamille. But he has been playing better in limited minutes - he's seen the fourth best improvement over the last 10 days. Skillings, Jamille, and Jizzle have seen the biggest improvement over the last 10 days, while Aziz, Day Day, and Vik have seen the biggest regressions. I think we'd all agree with that using our eyes. Coaches usually look at things over a longer timespan though.

I understand what you are saying. In Ody's defense, it is hard to improve sitting on the bench. Maybe he has reached his peak and minutes are earned.

[leeraymond]

Speaking of Ody
https://gobearcats.com/news/2024/2/1...ecipients.aspx

University of Cincinnati student-athletes Ody Oguama (men's basketball) and Carly Glendinning (volleyball) were named the Jean Stephens Memorial Award honorees for this school year. Oguama, because of the ceremony taking place during Tuesday's game against No. 10 Iowa State, was honored pregame, with the full recognition at halftime. ... the Jean Stephens Memorial Award was instituted to recognize a female and male student-athlete for their high integrity, high ethical standards, respect for all persons and commitment to both UC Athletics and the University of Cincinnati.

Good for Oguama. He appears to be a deserving young man. Hats off to Ody.

[leeraymond]

Ody has worse shooting, rebounding, and block rates than Aziz. So he's not going to get much playing time at the 5. And he has no offensive ability outside the paint, so he's a liability at the 4, especially on a team desperate for scoring options. I think we could pair him with Jamille for stretches, but only when Skillings is on the bench, so maybe 8 minutes a game.

The coaching staff probably uses analytics that have been developed and accepted by the basketball community over the last couple decades. One of those is box plus minus, which blends individual statistics with team performance when a player is on the court. Ody is a decent defender, but his offensive box plus minus is tied for second to last on our team at negative 1.1 (only Josh Reed is worse). He's tied with Jamille, who is starting to settle into the player he was at Temple. Jamille is playing much better over the last 4 games. In overall box plus minus, Ody is significantly worse than Aziz and Skillings.

Box plus minus was developed for the NBA where strength of schedule isn't nearly as much of an issue as it is in college. Evan Miya has attempted to account for that with a stat he developed called BPR - Bayesian Performance Rating. After adjusting Ody's stats for opponent strength, he's the second worst player on our team ahead of Jamille. But he has been playing better in limited minutes - he's seen the fourth best improvement over the last 10 days. Skillings, Jamille, and Jizzle have seen the biggest improvement over the last 10 days, while Aziz, Day Day, and Vik have seen the biggest regressions. I think we'd all agree with that using our eyes. Coaches usually look at things over a longer timespan though.

I am not sure what you are talking about with all the stats and stuff. I go by what I see and wins and losses with players in the game or not in the game. Oguama is not a five or a stretch four. A coach would not put Oguama in the game for offensive punch. Although he is a better offensive player at the rim than Aziz. Aziz cannot even position the ball in his hands to shoot unless he is at the free throw line. Oguama is the best big man perimeter defender on the team. Did you see Aziz in the Dayton game? How about the Houston game? Have you been paying attention to Aziz on the season? He has no offense except when someone throws him an ally-oop. He has no offensive moves in the paint. He is terribly under-developed offensively. He can rebound and shot block right at the rim. He has no defense away from the rim. Oguama can play defense on the perimeter. He is also a better perimeter defender than Skillings.

Here is another thing. Oguama has NOT played much in the conference. So what are you basing your numbers on? Oguama has only played 3.6 minutes a game in the conference whereas Aziz has played 23.9 minutes a game. No wonder UC has lost 7 of 11 in the conference. Maybe the wins and losses would be different if Oguama played more minutes.

Lastly, if Miller and the coaching staff are using their fancy analytics to coach, the stats appear NOT to be working given that UC has lost 7 of its last 10 games. You know what, UC is not done losing. Put Oguama in the game. It cannot be worse than what is happening now.

[sedz]

I am not sure what you are talking about with all the stats and stuff. I go by what I see and wins and losses with players in the game or not in the game. Oguama is not a five or a stretch four. A coach would not put Oguama in the game for offensive punch. Although he is a better offensive player at the rim than Aziz. Aziz cannot even position the ball in his hands to shoot unless he is at the free throw line. Oguama is the best big man defender (in and out of the paint) on the team. Did you see Aziz in the Dayton game? How about the Houston game? Have you been paying attention to Aziz on the season? He has no offense except when someone throws him an ally-oop. He has no offensive moves in the paint. He is terribly under-developed offensively. He can rebound and shot block right at the rim. He has no defense away from the rim. Oguama can play defense on the perimeter. He is also a better perimeter defender than Skillings.

Here is another thing. Oguama has NOT played much in the conference. So what are you basing your numbers on? Oguama has only played 3.6 minutes a game in the conference whereas Aziz has played 23.9 minutes a game. No wonder UC has lost 7 of 11 in the conference. Maybe the wins and losses would be different if Oguama played more minutes.

Lastly, if Miller and the coaching staff are using their fancy analytics to coach, the stats appear NOT to be working given that UC has lost 7 of its last 10 games. You know what, UC is not done losing.

When it comes down to it, basketball is a statistical game. There are no points for style. The goal is strictly to outscore the opponent, and our eyes can easily deceive us as to what works and what doesn't. For example, you're saying Ody is better at the rim than Aziz. Ody is shooting 61% at the rim this season. Aziz makes 71%. Regardless of who we think is better, Aziz makes more shots around the basket than Ody does. And you're right about Aziz having no offense away from the rim. He's only attempted 13 other shots all season, but that's a good thing if you're not efficient there. Ody is the same way. He has no offense outside the paint either.

Defense is a little tougher because there aren't as many individual stats. But Aziz is a way better rebounder - he grabs 26% of opponent misses compared to Ody's 18%. Aziz also blocks shots at a higher rate than Ody. No one on our team fouls more than Ody. And going to intangibles is where the advance stats come in. Opponents score more when Ody is on the floor than Aziz or Skillings.

This isn't to say that Ody shouldn't be able to earn his way back onto the court. It's just that there isn't a statistical argument for more playing time. It's perfectly fine to argue for other reasons and leave out the stats. But to imply that the coaching staff isn't doing analytics because they aren't playing Ody is way off base.