Iowa St. 2/13 7:00 ESPN2

[leeraymond]

Stats are a tool to help coaches come up with strategies to win games. They are actionable and predictive. Fans say things like we "don't know how to win". What does that mean practically? How do you change it? Not long ago people were clamoring for Day Day and Jizzle to play together. Now, just a week or two later, fans have decided our PGs don't know how to play basketball. This stuff is all very reactionary and short term. Day Day was our best player against Texas Tech and had one of his worst games against Iowa St. It happens.

Rate stats show that Ohio St is the 68th best team in the country (per kenpom). That's why they have 11 losses. This is the 4th straight year they have been worse than the previous season. That's why Holtmann was fired. Ohio State's expectations are much higher.

In 2018 Cronin had the 5th best team in the country per rate stats with an offense ranked #56. His best offense was the previous year with Caupain at PG, coming in at #31.

Last year UConn lost 8 regular season games, more than many other teams. So they got a 4 seed. But they entered the tournament as the 4th best team in the country per rate stats. Part of what makes the NCAA tournament so fun is the randomness of single elimination. Anything can happen in a single game. But having the most efficient team possible will increase your odds of winning every game.

I look at process because that's what a coach has control over going into a game. And then I look at results to modify the process for the next game. This is how every coach operates. Always looking to improve the process regardless of the team's record in previous games.

I do not know what you are talking about. Troy Caupain DID NOT play on any 2018 UC team. Go back and check your rate stats. As for Holtmann, he had a 20 - 12 overall win / loss record in 2021-22. From 2022-current, Holtmann has gone 30 wins and 30 losses overall and 9 and 25 in the BIG 10. One thing about the BIG 10, and I am from Michigan, the culture in the BIG 10 is all about winning in the BIG 10, especially for football. If you do not win in conference play in the BIG 10, as a coach, you might find yourself looking for another gig. Ask Chris Holtmann, it is about wins and losses.

[sedz]

In 2018 Cronin had the 5th best team in the country per rate stats with an offense ranked #56. His best offense was the previous year with Caupain at PG, coming in at #31.

Of course everything is about wins and losses. I don't know why you keep saying that. The whole point of statistical analysis is to figure out how to win more games. Same with everyone else's intangibles that they see with their eyes.

[leo from jersey]

I agree with using every means to win. The thing about not changing the starters as it may hamper their play. While the last 5 games, could they have played any worse.

[leeraymond]

Of course everything is about wins and losses. I don't know why you keep saying that. The whole point of statistical analysis is to figure out how to win more games. Same with everyone else's intangibles that they see with their eyes.

I like you. You put up a good fight. Let's move on to the UCF game. Where do you find all of those stats from?

[sedz]

I like you. You put up a good fight. Let's move on to the UCF game. Where do you find all of those stats from?

It's been a fun debate. I can get passionate about this stuff, but no hard feelings. We're all on the same team.

Rate stats, box plus minus, and net points come from Torvik: https://barttorvik.com/team.php?team=Cincinnati

Box plus minus adjusted for strength of schedule is at Evan Miya: https://evanmiya.com/?player_ratings

Ken Pomeroy is one of the pioneers of college basketball analytics, but most of his site is behind a paywall now: https://kenpom.com/

[leeraymond]

Of course everything is about wins and losses. I don't know why you keep saying that. The whole point of statistical analysis is to figure out how to win more games. Same with everyone else's intangibles that they see with their eyes.

Okay. Caupain prior to 2018. Got it. UC had some very nice numbers that season.

[leeraymond]

It's been a fun debate. I can get passionate about this stuff, but no hard feelings. We're all on the same team.

Rate stats, box plus minus, and net points come from Torvik: https://barttorvik.com/team.php?team=Cincinnati

Box plus minus adjusted for strength of schedule is at Evan Miya: https://evanmiya.com/?player_ratings

Ken Pomeroy is one of the pioneers of college basketball analytics, but most of his site is behind a paywall now: https://kenpom.com/

Thanks for the information. Certainly, no hard feelings. This is fun. I hope that Cincinnati can get a much-needed win this weekend. Take care.

[DesertFog]

It has been a wonderful debate! I have enjoyed lurking and considering the reasoned arguments. FWIW, I come down squarely on the statistical side.

[leo from jersey]

It has been a wonderful debate! I have enjoyed lurking and considering the reasoned arguments. FWIW, I come down squarely on the statistical side.

The thing is you can manipulate stats and make them say whatever you want too often. Stats are often skewed. You can't quantify timidity in rebounding, lack of dribbling while watching the entire court with head/eyes up and many other variables. It is a human game still. Guts win more games than stats and young players are up and down for the most part. What stat (player) are you getting at the moment? In other words, what individual player is showing up for each game. The stats act as though all opponents were equal. Not quite. I agree the stats should be studied, but they are not the be all end all. It is still an emotional game, and you can't adjust that emotion because it can't be neatly measured. Does stats show that a player maybe improving in practice. No. The stats reflects just what they do in games so bad prior game stats says hit the bench. It is a human game of both skill and emotions. It is matchups versus different situations and not generalities. This is why there is a gameplan. This is why there is scouting. A stat may say a certain general thing about a player, but what if one's strength goes against another's weakness and that variable has not been in prior games. Stats don't truly reflect the head games that can be played against opponents as the opponents demeanor changes with every new opponent. Too many variables to go too deeply in stats alone. I know Sedz agrees with that and I believe you do too. Once again, it is still a human game and humans have the capacity to play hot or cold and mainly in specific situations.

[sedz]

I'll just say that stats are used for almost everything you talk about here, and they inform better decision making. I use them in combination with my eyes to come up with game previews so I know what to watch for in a game. And then after watching the game with my eyes, I add in the statistical picture to tell me what went well and what didn't. Coaches use stats for a lot more.

[Jeff Burk]

It has been a wonderful debate! I have enjoyed lurking and considering the reasoned arguments. FWIW, I come down squarely on the statistical side.

I agree with you.

[leo from jersey]

I'll just say that stats are used for almost everything you talk about here, and they inform better decision making. I use them in combination with my eyes to come up with game previews so I know what to watch for in a game. And then after watching the game with my eyes, I add in the statistical picture to tell me what went well and what didn't. Coaches use stats for a lot more.

Coaches also know their players and their emotions. To me, the most vital part of coaching after teaching the fundamentals and game planning. We also must consider game time adjustments and decisions in situations. The human part is so vital in the game. That is why we see trash talking, fights and technical fouls in games. The coaches use or not the use of a TO can't be quantified. That is why we play the games. At least when I laced them up. Again, I would use the stats as with anything for a winning edge, but we are humans and not stats. Urban Meyer was a master of human and had great stat men. John Wooten had both but not to today's level of stats. Woody Hayes coached in a different era but his motto is still true . You win with people. Bob Huggins pushed the right human buttons. Ask E. Martin when taking off his jersey after being kicked off the court. Many coaches try for technicals in some situations. I like stats very much, but there is the human in playing the game and of course winning the game.
The difference between a successful person and others is not a lack of strength, not a lack of knowledge, but rather is a lack or will. Vince Lombardi -- we must get that winning will into players. It is possible my friend.
Coaches who can outline plays on a blackboard are a dime a dozen. The ones who win get inside their players and motivate." once again Vince Lombardi

[leo from jersey]

look - here is a secret to winning and you can include stats, but you make your opponent quit.

[leeraymond]

Coaches also know their players and their emotions. To me, the most vital part of coaching after teaching the fundamentals and game planning. We also must consider game time adjustments and decisions in situations. The human part is so vital in the game. That is why we see trash talking, fights and technical fouls in games. The coaches use or not the use of a TO can't be quantified. That is why we play the games. At least when I laced them up. Again, I would use the stats as with anything for a winning edge, but we are humans and not stats. Urban Meyer was a master of human and had great stat men. John Wooten had both but not to today's level of stats. Woody Hayes coached in a different era but his motto is still true . You win with people. Bob Huggins pushed the right human buttons. Ask E. Martin when taking off his jersey after being kicked off the court. Many coaches try for technicals in some situations. I like stats very much, but there is the human in playing the game and of course winning the game.
The difference between a successful person and others is not a lack of strength, not a lack of knowledge, but rather is a lack or will. Vince Lombardi -- we must get that winning will into players. It is possible my friend.
Coaches who can outline plays on a blackboard are a dime a dozen. The ones who win get inside their players and motivate." once again Vince Lombardi

Well said Leo.