Analytics

[sedz]

A quick note about the differences. EvanMiya puts more emphasis on plus minus (adjusted for opponent strength) so team effects are larger. His ratings for players on the same team are more clustered together than BPM. I personally have found BPM to be a better indicator over the years, but both are useful to look at. This season will be an interesting test case. These are the top four players from each model:

Torvik: Allenspach, Tejada, Carson, Elamin
EvanMiya: Carson, Mahaffey, Riley, Hastings
On3/pundits: Riley, Colvin, Tejada, Fleming

[GoBearcats31]

Roster outlook from EvanMiya https://x.com/EvanMiya/status/2054266607329837537

[swilsonsp4]

A quick note about the differences. EvanMiya puts more emphasis on plus minus (adjusted for opponent strength) so team effects are larger. His ratings for players on the same team are more clustered together than BPM. I personally have found BPM to be a better indicator over the years, but both are useful to look at. This season will be an interesting test case. These are the top four players from each model:

Torvik: Allenspach, Tejada, Carson, Elamin
EvanMiya: Carson, Mahaffey, Riley, Hastings
On3/pundits: Riley, Colvin, Tejada, Fleming

Interesting, but possibly totally irrelevant: None of these 9 players are among the top 4 in all 3 of these lists.

[swilsonsp4]

Roster outlook from EvanMiya https://x.com/EvanMiya/status/2054266607329837537

Lucas Atauri is on this list, but he won't be playing for UC. His knee was so bad after an injury and subsequent botched surgery in Brazil, that the prior staff sent him back home.

[sedz]

Interesting, but possibly totally irrelevant: None of these 9 players are among the top 4 in all 3 of these lists.

Exactly! That's why it will be a good test case. There isn't a consensus around anyone, good or bad. Perryman is the only guy who doesn't show up, but Torvik is high on him, just barely behind Elamin and even higher than Riley.

[D.A.H.]

Interesting, but possibly totally irrelevant:

stats are just that - interesting, just another tool. something to talk about. look at this way. if stats were the be all and end all, the alpha and the omega (I'm pretty sure that this reference is beyond the stat boys), every high draft pick by a pro sports franchise would succeed, because the metrics and stats said that they would.

What, that doesn't always happen? huh. could it possibly be that the stats don't show everything? I know that I'm getting close to being blasphemous, but, call me crazy. Ithink that stats have their place in all of this, but they're only one more tool to use, not the only one.

[leo from jersey]

stats are just that - interesting, just another tool. something to talk about. look at this way. if stats were the be all and end all, the alpha and the omega (I'm pretty sure that this reference is beyond the stat boys), every high draft pick by a pro sports franchise would succeed, because the metrics and stats said that they would.

What, that doesn't always happen? huh. could it possibly be that the stats don't show everything? I know that I'm getting close to being blasphemous, but, call me crazy. Ithink that stats have their place in all of this, but they're only one more tool to use, not the only one.

well Jesus never fails and thus He is the beginning and the end - but concerning sats - each and every position is a new and different situation. The one true stat is free throw shooting. The rest depend on the opponent and your different teammates - a pg that can get you the ball when you are ready to shot and doesn't take you out of your rhythm etc. I am like you as the stats can be helpful but not the beginning and the end. While I have not studied much stats, I did study Koine Greek for years. It is groovy.

[sedz]

This is the Analytics thread. Yes, stats are the beginning and end in a thread about stats. Let's keep the discussion focused on the numbers. Put general opinions about the merits of stats somewhere else.

[kskenyon4]

For comparison, here's Torvik BPM and evanmiya's BPR for UC's 2025-26 team (of those with qualifying minutes played).

Baba Miller: 8.5 7.23
Day Day Thomas: 4.4 5.67
Jalen Celestine: 6.9 4.06
Moustapha Thiam: 5.0 3.90
Buck Harris: 2.5 3.65
Jizzle James: 1.7 3.56
Keyshaun Tillery: 0.0 2.07
Kerr Kriisa: 1.4 1.10
Shon Abaev: 0.3 0.68
Tyler McKinley: 0.4 (-0.59)

Is it possible to see last years rosters numbers BEFORE last season. Players inevitably can make a jump with more PT, more years under their belt etc.

[Carthage World]

Chad and his podcast guys created a power ranking list of who they expect to be the most important players for this coming season. Here is the general consensus they established:

1) Tylen Riley
2) Tyler Tejada
3) Riley Allenspach
4) Myles Colvin
5) Akai Fleming
6) Adlan Elamin
7) Jayden Hastings
8) Trevian Carson
9) Eric Mahaffey
10) Elijah Perryman
11) David Iweze

Here is the episode for those interested in listening:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fNy4bomuTGw

Thoughts?

[sedz]

Is it possible to see last years rosters numbers BEFORE last season. Players inevitably can make a jump with more PT, more years under their belt etc.

Of course! As I've mentioned previously, I usually expect a 1 to 2 BPM jump on average every year, with some players making big jumps and others even regressing. The models take that into account. A link to EvanMiya's projections was posted yesterday. He's showing a major sophomore jump for Perryman and a good jump for Tejada. Torvik doesn't publish projected BPM but he does project ORtg.

Torvik BPM 2025 2026
Baba Miller: 4.5 8.5
Day Day Thomas: 4.9 4.4
Jalen Celestine: 1.9 6.9
Moustapha Thiam: 3.1 5.0
Buck Harris: 2.7 2.5
Jizzle James: 3.0 1.7

The average BPM change is 1.5. Baba and Celestine had big jumps. Thiam followed a typical 2 BPM progression. Thomas, James, and Harris saw slight declines. Nothing is predictable with certainty. Individual shots are impossible predict. Individual games very difficult. But with a group of players over the course of a season, the sample is large enough that we can get a good idea how they will perform using metrics. Much better than arbitrary pundit ratings.

[GoBearcats31]

Chad and his podcast guys created a power ranking list of who they expect to be the most important players for this coming season. Here is the general consensus they established:

1) Tylen Riley
2) Tyler Tejada
3) Riley Allenspach
4) Myles Colvin
5) Akai Fleming
6) Adlan Elamin
7) Jayden Hastings
8) Trevian Carson
9) Eric Mahaffey
10) Elijah Perryman
11) David Iweze

Here is the episode for those interested in listening:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fNy4bomuTGw

Thoughts?

Solid list.

I'm not sure the criteria for "most important" but feel like Trevian Carson has the potential to be a lot more impactful than he's being viewed now (not by BCJ but in general).

Even though Myles Colvin is high-ish up the list, I have fairly high expectations / think he should be solid.

Mahaffey's position seems very reasonable, and yet I think he could be pretty good.

Interesting seeing Perryman so low--which I totally agree with--but before Riley committed, he was being talked about like a starting PG (and certainly couldn't have both him and Tillery, they said).

Riley Allenspach seems to be slotted in as the starting center (written in ink, not pencil) and I hope he's as good as people seem to think. I'm admittedly not someone that watches the highlight reels of the recruits, so I'm not pretending to be familiar with his game. I'm just a little cautious because I watched Reed Bailey (18.8 ppg, 6.1 rpg for Davidson two years ago/first team all-A10) play for Indiana last year and could not match the physicality needed in the Big Ten -- whether he was starting or coming off the bench because he could not reliably be put in there. Granted he was listed as 1 inch shorter and over 15 pounds lighter than Allenspach is this year. But my point being is that I'm hesitant to assume a second team all-A10er (13.6 ppg, identical 6.1 rpg) is going to be that impactful on what we hope to be a tourney-caliber Big 12 team. Hopefully I am just underrating him.

[Carthage World]

Solid list.

I'm not sure the criteria for "most important" but feel like Trevian Carson has the potential to be a lot more impactful than he's being viewed now (not by BCJ but in general).

Even though Myles Colvin is high-ish up the list, I have fairly high expectations / think he should be solid.

Mahaffey's position seems very reasonable, and yet I think he could be pretty good.

Interesting seeing Perryman so low--which I totally agree with--but before Riley committed, he was being talked about like a starting PG (and certainly couldn't have both him and Tillery, they said).

Riley Allenspach seems to be slotted in as the starting center (written in ink, not pencil) and I hope he's as good as people seem to think. I'm admittedly not someone that watches the highlight reels of the recruits, so I'm not pretending to be familiar with his game. I'm just a little cautious because I watched Reed Bailey (18.8 ppg, 6.1 rpg for Davidson two years ago/first team all-A10) play for Indiana last year and could not match the physicality needed in the Big Ten -- whether he was starting or coming off the bench because he could not reliably be put in there. Granted he was listed as 1 inch shorter and over 15 pounds lighter than Allenspach is this year. But my point being is that I'm hesitant to assume a second team all-A10er (13.6 ppg, identical 6.1 rpg) is going to be that impactful on what we hope to be a tourney-caliber Big 12 team. Hopefully I am just underrating him.

Great points. Riley was a consensus #1 for the group's rankings, but there was a lot of debate about most of the remaining spots. I personally would've had Tejada and Allenspach lower, and put Colvin and Hastings higher, but everyone's subjective criteria is going to value different areas.

Fwiw, Chad said on the podcast that people he has talked to from George Mason stated that Allenspach arguably had a better season this past season, than Haynes had the season before, so considering the expectations most people had for Haynes heading into last season, I think that's a pretty promising update.

[sedz]

Solid list.

I'm not sure the criteria for "most important" but feel like Trevian Carson has the potential to be a lot more impactful than he's being viewed now (not by BCJ but in general).

Even though Myles Colvin is high-ish up the list, I have fairly high expectations / think he should be solid.

Mahaffey's position seems very reasonable, and yet I think he could be pretty good.

Interesting seeing Perryman so low--which I totally agree with--but before Riley committed, he was being talked about like a starting PG (and certainly couldn't have both him and Tillery, they said).

Riley Allenspach seems to be slotted in as the starting center (written in ink, not pencil) and I hope he's as good as people seem to think. I'm admittedly not someone that watches the highlight reels of the recruits, so I'm not pretending to be familiar with his game. I'm just a little cautious because I watched Reed Bailey (18.8 ppg, 6.1 rpg for Davidson two years ago/first team all-A10) play for Indiana last year and could not match the physicality needed in the Big Ten -- whether he was starting or coming off the bench because he could not reliably be put in there. Granted he was listed as 1 inch shorter and over 15 pounds lighter than Allenspach is this year. But my point being is that I'm hesitant to assume a second team all-A10er (13.6 ppg, identical 6.1 rpg) is going to be that impactful on what we hope to be a tourney-caliber Big 12 team. Hopefully I am just underrating him.

Reed Bailey had a 3.2 BPM at Davidson in 2024 and a negative -0.8 BPM against top 100 opponents. At Indiana he posted a 3.3 BPM last year and 1.2 BPM in conference. So I'd say he performed in line with the metrics. All-conference designations are not reflective of how good a player is. They are more reflective of usage rate. Bailey had 32% usage at Davidson. Easy to rack up stats like that even if you're not very good.

We've seen this before. Rapolas Ivanauskas was player of the year in the Patriot League with 27% usage. But he had a negative 2.1 BPM. Then he came here and posted a negative 3.6 BPM.
This past season there was a lot of noise around Keitenn Bristow, 2025 freshman of the year in the WAC. But he had a negative 0.9 BPM. He only played in 10 games at Alabama last year but posted a negative 0.8 BPM.

Allenspach had a 5.0 BPM last year and 5.6 BPM against top 100 opponents. He should be better than Reed Bailey (and Jaylen Haynes, who had a 2.8 BPM in 2025).