Analytics

[sedz]

A spot to move analytics discussions that go off the rails.

[Rufus]

Just to give my two cents.I agree that a coach has a lot of to do with winning games with the players you've got / developed. A good coach can deduce a players strengths and utilize them to the benefit of the team. And he has to have a system that #1 has proven to successful and #2 the players buy into and accept roles with his system. Our previous coach had a system that worked somewhat in the lesser conferences and could run players out that could shoot from outside the arc. But when he got to the B12 he seriously underestimated the defenses and strategies of better talent and didn't have the expertise to counter these schemes. He could no longer shoot his way to wins as it is way more difficult to make shots when bring guarded than not. This was evident beginning in year two.

[leeraymond372@gmail.com]

Of course, coaching analytics are just as important as individual player analytics. If you read back through this thread, most of it is a criticism of our midrange and ball screen heavy offense under Wes Miller. I have discussed Calhoun's analytics in other threads. This was my first assessment:



Also, I don't think we have a bunch of low level BPM players. We have several guys hovering around 4, some of them young, who seem poised to make a jump to the 6 or 7 range as star players. And a whole bunch of guys who are proven producers at 2 to 3 who can turn into 4 or 5 BPM starting caliber players. Fleming and Iweze are the only guys who would be considered projects. It's a solid roster.

Any BPM above neutral or zero is considered solid. I did not use low-level as in players that are not capable of good solid play. On the contrary, I think Calhoun and staff picked up some very decent players. However, as was mentioned previously, these guys do not have the BPMs that qualify them as star players. That's the fun of it; to bring in some guys that are decent but not highly regarded and are capable of winning big games. Cronin did for years at Cincinnati with mostly 3-star guys and a 4 every now and then (Jacob Evans for instance). You do not need a bunch of star players to win if the coaching is there.

As I have mentioned before on another thread, I like this roster. I think that this team has a bunch of solid players that will be productive. Good coaches can win games with whatever players that they may have. I think Calhoun may be that type of coach. I really do.

We are in agreement here.

[sedz]

Of course, coaching analytics are just as important as individual player analytics. If you read back through this thread, most of it is a criticism of our midrange and ball screen heavy offense under Wes Miller. I have discussed Calhoun's analytics in other threads. This was my first assessment:

I'd be on board with Calhoun. He did an amazing job turning Youngstown St into a 20 win team. The one consistent trait all of his teams have is they are good on the offensive glass. Although the one consistent weakness is they are always bad on the defensive glass. Shot selection was mixed at Youngstown St, but he has embraced modern basketball in his two year stint at Utah St, averaging 830 rim attempts and just 240 midrange shots. Compare that to our 570 rim attempts and 547 midrange shots this year. Utah St made 60% inside the arc this year, 11th best in the country. We made 50%, #247 nationally.

Also, I don't think we have a bunch of low level BPM players. We have several guys hovering around 4, some of them young, who seem poised to make a jump to the 6 or 7 range as star players. And a whole bunch of guys who are proven producers at 2 to 3 who can turn into 4 or 5 BPM starting caliber players. Fleming and Iweze are the only guys who would be considered projects. It's a solid roster.

[leeraymond372@gmail.com]

I am intere4sted to see the effect CJC has on the team. Hopefully in wins and a invite to the dance.

Do not get me wrong here. I am not taking sides. We all have our reasons for believing what we believe. I too think that coaching plays a vital role in determining wins and losses. Charles Barkley once said that players are most important at the NBA level and coaches are more important at the college level.

With that said, let's take a look at the summary data on Calhoun's teams over the last two years. Calhoun teams were 55-15 overall where they were 30-10 in conference play. Compare these numbers to Miller's numbers over the last two years: 37-31 and 16-22 (conference play). Also, Calhoun's teams scored 80.9 pts / g and gave up 70.3, shot 49% to 43%, pulled down 34.4 rebounds / g to 33.3, shot 70% to 72% from the FT line (made 15 FTs / g to 14), had 17 assists / g to 13, committed 10.5 TOs / g to 13.9, had
8.6 steals / g to 6, and had 2.8 blocks / g to 3.2.

Over the 2 years, Calhoun had 4 pretty good wins (Iowa, VCU, Memphis, and Villanova). Also, Calhoun had 4 (four) consecutive wins over conference rival San Diego State over the two-year period.

As well as looking at BPM, usage rates, turnover rates, 3 point shot percentages, mid-range shot percentages, getting to the rim action, and whatever individual player data we can find, coaching data also tell a very meaningful story.

Let's see what type of team that Calhoun can make out of all of these lower-level BPM players.

[leo from jersey]

The biggest difference is EvanMiya has Carson, Perryman, and Mahaffey as our three best players, while BearcatJournal has them as our worst.

Let us wait to see how CJC and staff develops them. I am reminded of this statement : “’Sir,’ the man replied, ‘leave it alone for one more year, and I’ll dig around it and fertilize it. If it bears fruit next year, fine! If not, then cut it down.’” Luke 13

Give them the chance with a new team and what I see as better coaching. I am not addressing this to any specific individual, but let us hold our judgement till we see them on the court and at the end of the season.

[sedz]

The biggest difference is EvanMiya has Carson, Perryman, and Mahaffey as our three best players, while BearcatJournal has them as our worst.

[sedz]

Now that Torvik and EvanMiya have published their projections, 247 updated their transfer rankings, and BearcatJournal compiled their rankings, I've created a comparison table for posterity.

	BearcatJournal	247	Torvik MPG	Torvik BPM	EvanMiya
1	Riley	Riley	Tejada	Allenspach	Carson
2	Tejada	Colvin	Colvin	Tejada	Perryman
3	Allenspach	Allenspach	Riley	Carson	Mahaffey
4	Colvin	Elamin	Carson	Elamin	Tejada
5	Fleming	Mahaffey	Fleming	Mahaffey	Colvin
6	Elamin	Tejada	Allenspach	Perryman	Hastings
7	Hastings	Fleming	Elamin	Riley	Riley
8	Carson	Hastings	Hastings	Colvin	Allenspach
9	Mahaffey	Carson	Mahaffey	Hastings	Elamin
10	Perryman	Perryman	Perryman	Fleming	Fleming

[leo from jersey]

The thread is titled analytics, not stats. People confuse the two but they are different. "Stats" are raw, box-score numbers measuring output. "Analytics" are calculated, context-dependent formulas that measure efficiency and impact. Stats = what. Analytics = how. I don't want to speak for sedz, but I believe he focuses on analytics, which is the title of the thread, not stats. In my view, analytics are the more useful measure because they factor in more than raw numbers.

they are contingent on one another.

[London 'Cat]

The thread is titled analytics, not stats. People confuse the two but they are different. "Stats" are raw, box-score numbers measuring output. "Analytics" are calculated, context-dependent formulas that measure efficiency and impact. Stats = what. Analytics = how. I don't want to speak for sedz, but I believe he focuses on analytics, which is the title of the thread, not stats. In my view, analytics are the more useful measure because they factor in more than raw numbers.

[leo from jersey]

What a change in stats with Baba and Lukošius . Could it be coaching or teammates getting them the ball in position to shoot? I am happy for them, but sad for us fans.

[leo from jersey]

it seems as though every thread on here winds up with statistical information. If there was a thread about a player's grandmother baking him muffins every week, that what would probably be compromised with stats of some sort. So, to me at least, in a thread about stats, it seems that its not "inappropriate" to comment about stats. keep the discussion on the numbers, and disregard everything else? sounds a little narrow minded.

I am intere4sted to see the effect CJC has on the team. Hopefully in wins and a invite to the dance.

[D.A.H.]

This is the Analytics thread. Yes, stats are the beginning and end in a thread about stats. Let's keep the discussion focused on the numbers. Put general opinions about the merits of stats somewhere else.

it seems as though every thread on here winds up with statistical information. If there was a thread about a player's grandmother baking him muffins every week, that what would probably be compromised with stats of some sort. So, to me at least, in a thread about stats, it seems that its not "inappropriate" to comment about stats. keep the discussion on the numbers, and disregard everything else? sounds a little narrow minded.

[GoBearcats31]

Reed Bailey had a 3.2 BPM at Davidson in 2024 and a negative -0.8 BPM against top 100 opponents. At Indiana he posted a 3.3 BPM last year and 1.2 BPM in conference. So I'd say he performed in line with the metrics. All-conference designations are not reflective of how good a player is. They are more reflective of usage rate. Bailey had 32% usage at Davidson. Easy to rack up stats like that even if you're not very good.

We've seen this before. Rapolas Ivanauskas was player of the year in the Patriot League with 27% usage. But he had a negative 2.1 BPM. Then he came here and posted a negative 3.6 BPM.
This past season there was a lot of noise around Keitenn Bristow, 2025 freshman of the year in the WAC. But he had a negative 0.9 BPM. He only played in 10 games at Alabama last year but posted a negative 0.8 BPM.

Allenspach had a 5.0 BPM last year and 5.6 BPM against top 100 opponents. He should be better than Reed Bailey (and Jaylen Haynes, who had a 2.8 BPM in 2025).

Thanks sedz - feeling a little more optimistic now

[leo from jersey]

Word on the street that CJC will be adding a new phrase to the vocabulary of the players. While if the door is open to the basket go go go, but mid range and back the new terminology is " SHOT SELECTION'. Let us see if he can get through and if he does what will that do to the stats.