Bracketology 2025

[swilsonsp4]

The tourney basically started for UC after WVII. Win and advance or lose (barring Coogs) and be done. Any bad losses from then until selection Sunday and they are done.

Given that the Cats keep playing well and winning, they wouldn't face Houston in the B12 tourney until Thursday at the earliest. Before that time, the field of 68 likely will be set (just not the final seeding), making that game irrelevant. This is based upon the experiences of Andy Katz, who participated in an NCAA-sponsored mock committee, as well as his discussions with experienced committee members.

Katz said that the committee normally are done with selection by the end of Wednesday night, but might leak into Thursday. Beyond that, they finish up with seeding over the next few days, before handing it over to CBS. Therefore, it is incumbent upon the Bearcats to win all of the next four games and hope other bubble teams falter.

It would help if Baylor can move into the Top 30 in NET, as neither of UC's next two opponents are close to Q1 status. In fact, K-State likely will be a home Q3 foe. They're at #82, and a UC win wouldn't move the needle towards #75. The only other Q1 possibility would be for UCF to get their act together and move up from #81. That's going to be a chore for the Knights, who play Okie State tonight in Orlando (not much help) and then finish up in Morgantown. After winning two early B12 road games, UCF have lost six straight, mostly in lopsided fashion. Their defensive efficiency, as measured by KenPom, is the worst in the conference by a wide margin.

So, we get to sweat it out.

[hipal88]

The tourney basically started for UC after WVII. Win and advance or lose (barring Coogs) and be done. Any bad losses from then until selection Sunday and they are done.

[GoBearcats31]

Great work guys.

We're now the 4th team out in Torvik's bracketology. Texas lept ahead of us and all the way into the field. Huge Q1 road win for the Longhorns. A big night for all the SEC bubble teams. Not so much for the BigTen.

The bubble is shrinking. Georgia, Baylor, West Virginia, and New Mexico locked up bids last night. Arkansas, Utah St, and Ohio St are close to locks. That leaves 4 bubble spots before bid stealers for 8 teams to fight over. In Torvik's order:

Last four in: UNC, Xavier, San Diego St, Texas
First four out: Indiana, Boise St, Oklahoma, Cincinnati

I would expect a couple bid stealers, so we need to pass all but one of those teams. Might need to finish the season 4-1.

UNC has a big opportunity versus Duke. Texas and Oklahoma do battle Saturday, as do Indiana/Ohio State. Oklahoma faces #15 Mizzou tonight.

Xavier's Butler/Providence combo is not dissimilar to UC's Kansas State/Oklahoma State.

Not only does UC need to keep winning, but they need to really improve the resume. So while Texas and Arkansas picked up big road wins last night against quality opponents, UC possibly beating bottom of the Big 12 teams this week would keep UC afloat perhaps but not likely to move the needle.

As sedz notes, the bubble is shrinking. So couple a hypothetical UC 2-0 finish with a hypothetical win over an Arizona State/UCF/Oklahoma State in the first game of the Big 12, and none of those are super impressive -- unless, perhaps, they skew the metrics by clobbering teams.

But just keep winning, starting with tonight.

[sedz]

Great work guys.

We're now the 4th team out in Torvik's bracketology. Texas lept ahead of us and all the way into the field. Huge Q1 road win for the Longhorns. A big night for all the SEC bubble teams. Not so much for the BigTen.

The bubble is shrinking. Georgia, Baylor, West Virginia, and New Mexico locked up bids last night. Arkansas, Utah St, and Ohio St are close to locks. That leaves 4 bubble spots before bid stealers for 8 teams to fight over. In Torvik's order:

Last four in: UNC, Xavier, San Diego St, Texas
First four out: Indiana, Boise St, Oklahoma, Cincinnati

I would expect a couple bid stealers, so we need to pass all but one of those teams. Might need to finish the season 4-1.

[Carthage World]

Tuesday was not a great day of bubble results for UC, as most of the similarly situated teams picked up wins (where a win over Kansas State won't move the needle a ton -- so probably in their best interest to not only win but win big...)

- Georgia pulled away from South Carolina late and UGA is trending up
- North Carolina pummeled a bad Virginia Tech team and is at 20 wins but still has glaring Q1 record
- Texas scored a big OT win over #25 Mississippi State
- SMU survived a Syracuse scare with a game-winning tip in with 3 seconds to play
- Villanova was a big loser, falling at Georgetown
- WVU surged late (like they did a couple weeks ago versus UC) to escape with a win at Utah
- OSU beat Nebraska in 2OT in a double bubble game that may have saved OSU's season and cost Nebraska its
- Indiana fell in a tight game at Oregon and hosts OSU this Saturday in a big double bubble game
- Arkansas secured a strong 13-point win at Vandy
- San Diego State fell at UNLV

WEDNESDAY
- 7:00 Kansas State at Cincinnati
- 7:00 Oklahoma State at UCF (resume game)
- 7:00 Xavier at Butler
- 8:00 #15 Missouri at Oklahoma

UC is 42 in the NET this morning, falling two spots (UNC, Arkansas, Texas passed them, while Vandy fell behind) ... Baylor moved from 32 to 31, one spot outside the Quad 1 for last week's win

Another team not on bubble status but worth keeping an eye on is Minnesota. 15-14 record and #94 in NET but with a 7-7 Q1 record. They have a Q1-A home game against Wisconsin tonight and finish @Rutgers in what will be a borderline Q1/Q2 game (Rutgers is #77).

[Carthage World]

Thanks to GoBearcats31 for sharing yesterday's busy schedule. Full update below:

6 pm - Georgia at So. Carolina - - - Georgia won by 9; rose 1 spot in NET to #32
7 pm - Detroit vs No. Kentucky (resume) - - - NKU won by 24; rose 7 spots in NET to #228
7 pm - Miami at Georgia Tech (resume) - - - Tech won by 15; rose 4 spots in NET to #107
7 pm - UNC at Virginia Tech - - - UNC won by 32; rose 5 spots in NET to #38
7 pm - Saint Louis at Dayton (resume but UD getting a bit bubbly) - - - Dayton won by 8: stayed at #68 in NET
7 pm - VCU at Duquesne - - - VCU won by 9; stayed at #29 in NET
8 pm - Texas at 25 Miss State - - - Texas won by 5; rose 5 spots to #41 in NET
8 pm - Baylor at TCU (double resume but Baylor win may get it to Q1 home win) - - - Baylor won by 2; Baylor rose 1 spot to #31 while TCU dropped 2 spots to #71
8 pm - Villanova at Georgetown - - - Villanova lost by 2; dropped 2 spots to #53
9 pm - 23 BYU at 10 Iowa State (resume) - - - BYU won by 3; rose 3 spots to #24
9 pm - West Virginia at Utah (standings, maybe resume) - - - WV won by 2; WV is 9-10 in Big 12 and guaranteed to finish above UC; Utah is 8-11 in the Big 12 and stayed at #64 in NET
9 pm - Syracuse at SMU - - - SMU won by 2; dropped 5 spots in NET to #46
9 pm - San Jose St at Colorado St - - - Colorado St won by 27; rose 2 spots in NET to #56
9 pm - Indiana at Oregon - - - IU lost by 9; dropped 1 spot in NET to #55
9 pm - Nebraska at OSU - - - OSU won by 2; stayed at #36 in NET
9 pm - Boise State at Air Force - - - Boise St won by 23; dropped 3 spots in NET to #45
10 pm - Arkansas at Vanderbilt - - - Arkansas won by 13; rose 8 spots to #39; Vanderbilt dropped 6 spots to #43
11 pm - San Diego St at UNLV - - - SDSU lost by 7; dropped 2 spots to #52

[GoBearcats31]

Tuesday was not a great day of bubble results for UC, as most of the similarly situated teams picked up wins (where a win over Kansas State won't move the needle a ton -- so probably in their best interest to not only win but win big...)

- Georgia pulled away from South Carolina late and UGA is trending up
- North Carolina pummeled a bad Virginia Tech team and is at 20 wins but still has glaring Q1 record
- Texas scored a big OT win over #25 Mississippi State
- SMU survived a Syracuse scare with a game-winning tip in with 3 seconds to play
- Villanova was a big loser, falling at Georgetown
- WVU surged late (like they did a couple weeks ago versus UC) to escape with a win at Utah
- OSU beat Nebraska in 2OT in a double bubble game that may have saved OSU's season and cost Nebraska its
- Indiana fell in a tight game at Oregon and hosts OSU this Saturday in a big double bubble game
- Arkansas secured a strong 13-point win at Vandy
- San Diego State fell at UNLV

WEDNESDAY
- 7:00 Kansas State at Cincinnati
- 7:00 Oklahoma State at UCF (resume game)
- 7:00 Xavier at Butler
- 8:00 #15 Missouri at Oklahoma

UC is 42 in the NET this morning, falling two spots (UNC, Arkansas, Texas passed them, while Vandy fell behind) ... Baylor moved from 32 to 31, one spot outside the Quad 1 for last week's win

[GoBearcats31]

Georgetown likely ended Villanova’s at large hopes

[GoBearcats31]

Resume: NKU wins easily in conference tourney opener, Georgia Tech beats Miami by 15, Dayton holds off SLU despite trailing big at the half

[GoBearcats31]

Tuesday games of note (reply if I missed any):

6 pm - Georgia at So. Carolina
7 pm - Detroit vs No. Kentucky (resume)
7 pm - Miami at Georgia Tech (resume)
7 pm - UNC at Virginia Tech
7 pm - Saint Louis at Dayton (resume but UD getting a bit bubbly)
7 pm - VCU at Duquesne
8 pm - Texas at 25 Miss State
8 pm - Baylor at TCU (double resume but Baylor win may get it to Q1 home win)
8 pm - Villanova at Georgetown
9 pm - 23 BYU at 10 Iowa State (resume)
9 pm - West Virginia at Utah (standings, maybe resume)
9 pm - Syracuse at SMU
9 pm - San Jose St at Colorado St
9 pm - Indiana at Oregon
9 pm - Nebraska at OSU
9 pm - Boise State at Air Force
10 pm - Arkansas at Vanderbilt
11 pm - San Diego St at UNLV

[GoBearcats31]

Northwestern falls at home to UCLA. Wildcats likely done.

[Carthage World]

Nicholls St (NET #164) plays at Lamar (NET #186) tonight for their regular season finale in a battle for 2nd place in the Southland Conference (both teams are 13-6).

If Nicholls can rise to a top 160 NET ranking, they will show up as a Q3 home win on our team sheet.

Nicholls loses by 12 after leading for the entire 2nd and 3rd quarters of the game. Offense went stone cold down the stretch.

if they do crack the top 160, it'll have to come off the strength of a big run in the conference tourney.

[GoBearcats31]

Wake Forest loses by 33 at Duke…

[GoBearcats31]

I've seen multiple people today list Dayton as a team on the fringes of the bubble. I don't see it, but--hey--if they can play some motivated basketball and help UC's resume, why not?

[GoBearcats31]

https://bracketville.wordpress.com/bracketology/

UC fifth out here

Last Four In:
Nebraska - at OSU, Iowa
OSU - Nebraska, at Indiana
Arkansas - at Vanderbilt, Miss. State
Xavier - at Butler, Providence

First Four Out:
Boise State - at Air Force, Colorado State
Oklahoma - Missouri, at Texas
UNC - at Virginia Tech, Duke
Texas - at Mississippi State, Oklahoma

Next Four Out:
UC - Kansas State, at Oklahoma State
Wake Forest - at Duke, Georgia Tech
Villanova - at Georgetown
Colorado State - San Jose State, at Boise State

(A large number of the "first" games listed are on Tuesday)