Bracketology 2025

[GoBearcats31]

If UC can find a way to beat K State and win at Oklahoma State, they'd have an interesting resume going into the Big 12 tourney.

The current 1-10 Q1 record is a tough look (UNC is 1-10, XU is 1-9) but Baylor is two spots from turning into Q1... but UC would presumably be 12-12 in the top two quads. Just on that data point alone, UC's record against the top two quads would be superior to nearly every other bubble team. If they could tack on two wins in KC...

UC over Kansas State = "high" Quad 3 win (KSU is not far from Q2 and the end of the range of Q3 includes the likes of Central Conn. State, Montana)
UC over Oklahoma State on road = Quad 2 road win (UC already has more road wins than many on the bubble)
Big 12 first game = likely Quad 2 neutral
Possible Big 12 second game = likely Quad 1 neutral

[Carthage World]

Nicholls St (NET #164) plays at Lamar (NET #186) tonight for their regular season finale in a battle for 2nd place in the Southland Conference (both teams are 13-6).

If Nicholls can rise to a top 160 NET ranking, they will show up as a Q3 home win on our team sheet.

[Carthage World]

Monday (3/3) match-ups of interest:

Wake Forest (NET #68) could drastically improve their resume with an upset win at Duke (7 pm on ESPN). They are 12-6 in the ACC with a 7-6 Q1/Q2 record but also have 3 Q3 losses.

Northwestern (NET #54) host UCLA and could generate some late momentum with a Q1 win (9 pm on FS1). They have a lot of work to do with a 7-11 conference record and a 7-13 Q1/Q2 record but have zero bad losses.

North Texas (NET #56) and McNeese St (NET #61) both play tonight in separate conference match-ups and have shot up the rankings over the past few weeks. Neither team has a Q1 win though, so they will both likely need to earn auto bids to make the tournament.

[sedz]

NC St fell 19 spots in the NET this week after losing to Syracuse by 14 and Georgia Tech by 25. They're now outside the top 135 which (for now) removes a quality win from SMU, UNC, and Texas, and gives a third bad loss to Wake Forest.

[sedz]

Going into today, Torvik's model gave Liberty a 0.6% chance of landing an at large bid. That's now gone with a home loss to Kennesaw St.

[GoBearcats31]

Bracket Guy Dave: Cincinnati – The reality, UC played well in a loss at Houston. Also a reality, UC might have needed that statement victory to shake free from a host of other similar bubble teams. If the Bearcats finish off with victories over Kansas State and Oklahoma State, they’ll at least have a chance to grab a Quad 1 victory or two at the B12 tourney.

[sedz]

San Francisco lost by 20 at home to Gonzaga. George Mason picked up a bad loss at Duquesne. That probably ends at large hopes for those teams.

Nebraska, Oklahoma, Texas, Arkansas, and SMU all lost. Xavier and Vandy picked up the biggest wins. Vandy is close to a lock now.

Our resume got a jolt thanks to big wins by TCU and Utah, who vaulted up the net rankings and are no longer straddling the 75 cut line. We have 10 quality wins now. The BYU win also looks a little better as they moved up to 26. And of course we moved up to 40 ourselves.

We moved up from the 6th team out to the 3rd team out in Torviks's live bracketology. Good day overall, and we're very much in the mix.

[Carthage World]

Not a ton of spicy bubble match-ups today:

Drake (NET #59) vs Missouri St at 3 pm (ESPN+)... should be an easy Q4 home win for a team with a very fascinating resume (5-0 Q1/Q2, 10-3 Q3)

Memphis (NET #46) vs UAB at 4 pm (ESPN)... Q2 opportunity for a team with an impressive non-power conference resume (6-2 Q1, 4-1 Q2).

Kansas St (NET #83) is decidedly out of bubble contention, but as our next opponent, they are worth a watch at 4 pm today against Colorado (ESPN+)

[GoBearcats31]

Well… UC just vaulted from 47 to 40 in the NET (puts them ahead, for the time being, of most of the bubble teams FWIW)

[GoBearcats31]

Positive day so far but how much does it matter if UC can’t pull off the unthinkable? At least keep it close …

Dayton holding off a bad Richmond in 2OT can’t hurt

Georgia Tech up double figures over NC St a minor positive for resume too with win

Ole Miss over Oklahoma is big. Oklahoma similar in metrics to UC but many viewed them as in despite 4-11 SEC record. Well, now they are 4-12.

[sedz]

Nebraska on a 23-8 run since I posted this. 3 point game now with 9 minutes left.

Minnesota wins it 67-65 on a three with 4 seconds left. Nebraska's tourney hopes take a hit.

[GoBearcats31]

Minnesota almost blows it but knocks down a game winning 3 with 4 seconds to go, holding off Nebraska

[sedz]

Nebraska getting smoked at home against #97 Minnesota. It would be their first bad loss and 12th overall.

Nebraska on a 23-8 run since I posted this. 3 point game now with 9 minutes left.

[Carthage World]

NKU (#236) beats (#189) Youngstown St by 9 at home which should further solidify their status as a Q3 game on our team sheet.

[sedz]

Nebraska getting smoked at home against #97 Minnesota. It would be their first bad loss and 12th overall.