2025-26 Roster

[longtimefan]

Since our disappointing season is practically over, it’s time to look at next year, to get the sight of this team out of our system.

As of today, next year we have:

Jizzle James
Dillon Mitchell
Dan Skillings
Josh Reed
Rayvon Griffith
Tyler Betsey
Tyler McKinley
Keyshaun Tillery
Shon Abeav
Halvine Dzellat
Arrinten Page
Connor Hickman (possibly)
Day Day Thomas (possibly)
JJ Rembert

We’ll see how it goes. We obviously need quality bigs. Looking at next year beats watching the end of this year.

[GoBearcats31]

UC has updated the roster page
https://gobearcats.com/sports/mens-basketball/roster

1 - Day Day Thomas, 6'1 190 lbs. Graduate Student
2 - Jizzle James, 6'3 205 lbs. Junior
3 - Tyler McKinley, 6'9 240 lbs. Sophomore (surely this will be Redshirt Freshman)
4 - Halvine Dzellat, 6'10 225 lbs. Sophomore
5 - Jalen Celestine, 6'7 215 lbs. Graduate Student
6 - Sencire Harris, 6'4 174 lbs. Junior
7 - Jalen Haynes, 6'8 265 lbs. Graduate Student
8 - Kerr Kriisa, 6'1 185 lbs. Graduate Student
9 - Moustapha Thiam, 7'2 235 lbs. Sophomore

- Not listed yet: two incoming freshman
- Heights/weights from new guys probably from their prior schools' roster pages
- Still several spots available to fill

[DesertFog]

Re compring AP and Torvik Pre, it might be interesting to consider Torvik final as well.

[leeraymond]

The truth of the matter is, even with all of the fancy analytics, the statistical tools of Torvik and Kenpom, and predictions of college basketball thought gurus, no one knows how next season is going to play out. UC was ranked as high as 14th in the country this season and finished its season 13th in the BIG XII. What a let-down.

Let's see how next year's team looks once it hits the floor and plays its first one or two challenging games against a decent opponent. Although next year's team may not enter the season ranked as high as this year's team, next year's team may fit together and have better chemistry than this year's team. UC now has the roster configuration to play big or small. Teams with the two big body bigs may not give next year's team as many problems as this year's team. UC now has a 4 big man rotation (Thiam McKinley, Haynes, and Dzellat). Who knows, UC still has more roster spots to fill, it may bring in another big man. I doubt it, but you never know.

Finally, Thiam and Haynes did not come to UC to sit on the bench. I project that UC may start the season with both of those guys in the starting lineup. Thiam, I do not know about Haynes, is being paid good money to be on the floor. I cannot see either one of those guys not starting. However, let us not sell McKinley or Dzellat short. McKinley can really play and knows how to play. He is 6'9" and 240. He has had a chance to observe big time college basketball up close for a year. He has been watching film in real time. I expect that he is going to be able to strike a blow in practice. Remember, McKinley played high school basketball at the highest level in the country. He knows what it is like to play high level basketball. Look out for McKinley.

I do not know if anyone paid any attention to Dzellat when he was on the floor during the Crown Tournament. From what I could see, there is nothing wrong with his defense. Also, he took shots when he was around the rim. He appears to like playing offense. He was looking for his shot. I like that. Next year's team may be alright. It has some interesting parts and pieces.

Miller is still the wild card. As we all know, it takes Miiler forever to decide on a starting 5. If next year's team can develop a strong chemistry, toughness, and intelligence, who knows what could happen. It may be able to save Miller's job.

[DesertFog]

I have a few things to add to the statistics/analytics comments, but I wonder if it might make more sense to put the discussion, which is presently scattered throughout the Roster and Transfer Portal sections, in the Analytics section. Admins?

[GoBearcats31]

@GoBearcatsMBB tweeted "It all starts with 1 and 2" with pics of Jizzle and Day Day. Day Day obviously never hit the portal but this is further confirmation he is back.

I guess Day Day posted on IG similar to Jizzle where he announced he's back but it's buried at the end of a video

[sedz]

Here is how Torvik's preseason rankings compared to the AP last season for all teams in either the AP's preseason or final rankings. Torvik was closer on 21, the AP was closer on 12.

Team	AP Pre	Torvik Pre	AP Final
Kansas	1	4	37
Alabama	2	9	6
UConn	3	13	29
Houston	4	1	2
Iowa St	5	3	17
Gonzaga	6	8	23
Duke	7	2	3
Baylor	8	15	--
UNC	9	5	--
Arizona	10	10	15
Auburn	11	7	4
Tennessee	12	6	5
TX A&M	13	12	19
Purdue	14	17	14
Creighton	15	14	30
Arkansas	16	35	20
Indiana	17	30	--
Marquette	18	25	38
Texas	19	11	--
Cincinnati	20	27	--
Florida	21	36	1
UCLA	22	24	32
Kentucky	23	23	12
Ole Miss	24	38	18
Rutgers	25	19	--

Team	AP Pre	Torvik Pre	AP Final
St Johns	27	16	11
Texas Tech	29	20	8
Michigan St	32	18	7
Michigan	34	34	10
BYU	35	28	13
Clemson	41	44	22
Wisconsin	45	40	16
St Marys	46	39	24
Louisville	47	62	21
Maryland	55	48	9
Memphis	--	32	25

[GoBearcats31]

@GoBearcatsMBB tweeted "It all starts with 1 and 2" with pics of Jizzle and Day Day. Day Day obviously never hit the portal but this is further confirmation he is back.

[sedz]

Yes, for sure. Kenpom and Torvik have many inputs in their models, including coaches or at least prior seasons. In fact, before substitution data came along, models were almost entirely team based. Most models now (including Torvik) use the 16 step player based system laid out by Dan Hanner in Basketball Prospectus back in 2012: https://web.archive.org/web/20130530...articleid=2415

Hanner prescribed an adjustment giving "high weight to the most recent season for each coach, but also some weight to all historic seasons". Torvik says "each coach has their own ratings on offense and defense, which are based on their past performance compared to their school's overall program mean". Kenpom says "The components and weighting are based on a regression of the past nine seasons ... Projected offense is largely determined by the quality of a team’s offense over the previous three seasons."

I don't have a model myself. I'm just using BPM as a crude first building block. It's easy to see what effect adding a player or changing minutes distribution will have. And it's pretty close. My crude NetRtg calc using BPM only for this year's roster was 17.6. We ended at 16.3 in Torvik's model and 14.9 on Kenpom. So their models do think we are worse than what you'd expect from the roster alone.

Hanner closed that article with "Data can't tell us everything about the upcoming season. There will always be surprises, and that's what makes college basketball great. But the techniques for predicting the season are getting better, and through them we can gain insight into teams we may have overvalued or overlooked."

This post from the portal thread talks about all the adjustments.

Poor coach performance from prior years (bad offense) and low returning minutes are probably the biggest reasons for our disparity.

A good example in the opposite direction is Purdue: #27 in talent but #2 overall because of good coaching and roster continuity.

[London 'Cat]

Do those metrics spell out the reason for the disparity between the overall and the talent ratings?

Team chemistry? Coaching? I’m interested in learning that too.

[swilsonsp4]

Torvik has released his first 2026 projections. We come in at #36. Our talent rating is #18.

Do those metrics spell out the reason for the disparity between the overall and the talent ratings?

[sedz]

Torvik has released his first 2026 projections. We come in at #36. Our talent rating is #18.

[red_n_black_attack]

FWIW, here's Torvik's minutes distribution with the newest additions.

PG: Kriisa 25 / Day Day 8 / Tillery 7
SG: James 21 / Day Day 19
SF: Harris 15 / Abaev 13 / James 11 / Celestine 1
PF: Celestine 25 / Haynes 11 / McKinley 4
C: Thiam 30 / Haynes 10

I think we will have some times when Harris or Celestine are the SG. I like the flexibility to go big and envision a few rotations where we have either of the ones below. The ability for guys to play multiple positions should be a big boost. I like that we have two big time recruits, but hate that we will need them to contribute. If Tillery and Abaev can stake a claim to significant minutes, along with McKinley, then this team should be able to run a deep rotation to stay fresh.

PG Kriisa/Tillery/Day Day/James
SG Celestine/Harris
SF Abaev/Harris
PF Haynes/McKinley
C Thiam

Or go smaller
PG Kriisa/Tillery
SG James/ Day Day
SF Abaev/Harris
PF Haynes
C McKinley

We currently have 11 of 15 roster spots filled. I wouldn't mind adding another guard if he has low turnover rate and can shoot well beyond the arc, but those guys are mostly gone. My biggest hope is to add a true PF and a combo SF/PF. One more center would also be nice. Foul trouble could cause concerns or limit flexibility. I hope we aren't done with 11 players.

[London 'Cat]

Would it be accurate to say that (maybe) the 'Cats will have a marginally better roster for 25-26 than 24-25
but the BIG 12 (as a whole) will be significantly better which means we're just treading water?

It seems UC has separated itself from the bottom of the conference standings compared to last season. However, the top of the conference also improved their rosters as well. What that means for UC is likely another season in the middle of the conference standings at best.

[JohnFrancis]

Would it be accurate to say that (maybe) the 'Cats will have a marginally better roster for 25-26 than 24-25
but the BIG 12 (as a whole) will be significantly better which means we're just treading water?