2025-26 Roster

[sedz]

Lots of good insight zykarious. I agree that PF is the biggest downgrade, but it's also the easiest place to play someone out of position. PF is the swing position between 4 guard and 2 big lineups. We can tailor to our opponents. I don't have much confidence in Wes actually doing that though - I'd much rather bring in an experienced 4.

[zykarious]

Slightly worse per Torvik. We began last season at #27. Our projected roster right now would be #30.

Seems accurate, last years projections counted on Skillings and Simas not regressing. If I'm comparing to what we thought we had on paper last preseason, I'd say we're about equal. But compared to the product on the court... well hopefully the product on the court is closer to what we are on paper than last year.

We should be improved or at least no worse at PG, SG and C as long as we stay healthy. Jizzle and Day Day are returning and I always expect at least small improvements from returners. Kriisa and Harris should be an improvement over Hickman (injured and a bust) and Fredrick (oft injured). Thiam's floor is about the level Aziz played at last year and his ceiling is far higher, hoping he takes a Sophomore jump and is an improvement, Haynes should be a better backup C than Page.

SF: Harris is probably a small improvement over Reed. Celestine for Reed is close to a wash, Abaev I'm not ready to say is an improvement over Skillings/Simas,

PF: Looks like the position we've gotten significantly worse. Mitchell did a lot well and nothing too poorly (besides shoot FT's). Everyone who looks likely to play the position this year seems to have major flaws (Celestine, Haynes) or is a complete unknown (McKinley). Need one of those guys to exceed my expectations or need another portal addition.

[zykarious]

I think the big question with Celestine is can he be a good rebounder if he's asked to hit the glass. Omier put up ridiculous rebounding numbers for Baylor and didn't leave as many chances for other players. So was Ojianwuna before he got hurt. Edgecombe was a good rebounder for a wing. Rebounding wasn't Celestine's role at Baylor. But he certainly hasn't proven that he can rebound. At Cal he played the 3 and didn't really rebound at all.

The upside is he's a dependable shooter who doesn't make a lot of mistakes and put up the best production of his career in Big12 play, posting a 2.6 BPM in conference mostly at the 4. Still, I'd rather take my chances with a hard nosed slasher like Durugordon, even if he's a bit undersized and doesn't play great defense.

In favor of your argument, Celestine's rebound percentage in conference was 10.1%. I've been watching some of his games and he looks bigger and more capable of bodying guys in the post than I expected from the stats. He has some Josh Reed similarities, like Reed, he seems to be an athletically limited guy who plays smart and within his capability. The defense complaints from Baylor fans likely stem in part from the fact that he played the 4, but can't really jump or provide help defense in the paint. But hopefully Thiam will take care of that. On offense he mostly hangs out on the perimeter and isn't going to fly in and grab offensive rebounds (3.9% ORB% in conference is pretty bad).

Overall, he looks like a reliable veteran, who you know what you are getting from. Though would rather have him at the 3, as I'd like to get better rebounding out of the 4.

I'd like to get one more up-and-comer type (either young, from a smaller conference or both), I'm okay with Celestine as the fall back plan if other guys don't work out. But I don't want him penciled in as a starter.

[swilsonsp4]

I can see the guys in the portal staying there.

Per Chad Brendel, none of the UC players who went into the portal will return.

[sedz]

I wonder if Rayvon or Betsey will decide they like their odds returning over trying to get minutes elsewhere, hope to come back for a "prove it" year at a high level, then get paid next year. They can both play the 4 and I think there's a chance either could win the role over the guys we have right now. Have to think Wes is looking to add at least one more PF to the mix to compete for minutes at that position.

PG, SG and C seem pretty much settled. SF Harris/Abaev likely have they majority of minutes locked down as well, though it seems less certain.

But PF seems like a position Wes is getting guys who aren't clearly good enough to be given the starting spot and telling them he'll give them a chance. I could see Rayvon or Betsey (or a guy like them, trying to prove themselves at the high major level) looking at Celestine (undersized, not great at defense or rebounding), Haynes (moving up a level, probably not quick enough to guard 4's and fouls too much) and McKinley (redshirt freshman, unknown, coming off a major knee injury) and saying to themselves, I can win the starting role (or at least 15-20 minutes per game) over those 3.

I think the big question with Celestine is can he be a good rebounder if he's asked to hit the glass. Omier put up ridiculous rebounding numbers for Baylor and didn't leave as many chances for other players. So was Ojianwuna before he got hurt. Edgecombe was a good rebounder for a wing. Rebounding wasn't Celestine's role at Baylor. But he certainly hasn't proven that he can rebound. At Cal he played the 3 and didn't really rebound at all.

The upside is he's a dependable shooter who doesn't make a lot of mistakes and put up the best production of his career in Big12 play, posting a 2.6 BPM in conference mostly at the 4. Still, I'd rather take my chances with a hard nosed slasher like Durugordon, even if he's a bit undersized and doesn't play great defense.

[Oldtimer_UC_fan]

I can see the guys in the portal staying there.

Me too, Leo, especially Griffith.

[leo from jersey]

I wonder if Rayvon or Betsey will decide they like their odds returning over trying to get minutes elsewhere, hope to come back for a "prove it" year at a high level, then get paid next year. They can both play the 4 and I think there's a chance either could win the role over the guys we have right now. Have to think Wes is looking to add at least one more PF to the mix to compete for minutes at that position.

PG, SG and C seem pretty much settled. SF Harris/Abaev likely have they majority of minutes locked down as well, though it seems less certain.

But PF seems like a position Wes is getting guys who aren't clearly good enough to be given the starting spot and telling them he'll give them a chance. I could see Rayvon or Betsey (or a guy like them, trying to prove themselves at the high major level) looking at Celestine (undersized, not great at defense or rebounding), Haynes (moving up a level, probably not quick enough to guard 4's and fouls too much) and McKinley (redshirt freshman, unknown, coming off a major knee injury) and saying to themselves, I can win the starting role (or at least 15-20 minutes per game) over those 3.

I can see the guys in the portal staying there.

[zykarious]

I could see that rotation. I'm not convinced by any of these guys except Thiam. The 3 and 4 positions are up for grabs and we could play several different styles. I'll need to see Haynes defending the perimeter before I decide if he can play 4, but I have a hard time imagining a 260 lb guy staying in front of wings like Demin and Dybantsa.

I wonder if Rayvon or Betsey will decide they like their odds returning over trying to get minutes elsewhere, hope to come back for a "prove it" year at a high level, then get paid next year. They can both play the 4 and I think there's a chance either could win the role over the guys we have right now. Have to think Wes is looking to add at least one more PF to the mix to compete for minutes at that position.

PG, SG and C seem pretty much settled. SF Harris/Abaev likely have they majority of minutes locked down as well, though it seems less certain.

But PF seems like a position Wes is getting guys who aren't clearly good enough to be given the starting spot and telling them he'll give them a chance. I could see Rayvon or Betsey (or a guy like them, trying to prove themselves at the high major level) looking at Celestine (undersized, not great at defense or rebounding), Haynes (moving up a level, probably not quick enough to guard 4's and fouls too much) and McKinley (redshirt freshman, unknown, coming off a major knee injury) and saying to themselves, I can win the starting role (or at least 15-20 minutes per game) over those 3.

[sedz]

FWIW, here's Torvik's minutes distribution with the newest additions.

PG: Kriisa 25 / Day Day 8 / Tillery 7
SG: James 21 / Day Day 19
SF: Harris 15 / Abaev 13 / James 11 / Celestine 1
PF: Celestine 25 / Haynes 11 / McKinley 4
C: Thiam 30 / Haynes 10

[sedz]

I'm not convinced by Celestine, his rebounding numbers aren't that good and reading Baylor forums they didn't think he was a good defender. He's a shooter, but that's pretty much it. Seems more like a 10-15 minute per game guy off the bench unless something goes wrong. He'd be very undersized and poor at rebounding for a PF.

I think the plan is for Haynes to start at the 4 and that could spell trouble too, as he's foul prone and struggles to guard the perimeter even as a 5. Maybe we still have money to add a PF, but I expect all the projected starters are already on the roster. I'd like to add bigger wing as a backup who can defend and rebound at the 3 or 4.

My projection as of now.

PG: Day Day 15 / Kriisa 20 / Tillery 5
SG: James 25 / Day Day 10 / Harris 5
SF: Harris 20 / Abaev 15 / Celestine 5
PF: Haynes 20 / McKinley 15 / Celestine 5
C: Thiam 25 / Haynes 5 / McKinley 5 / Dzellat 5

I could see that rotation. I'm not convinced by any of these guys except Thiam. The 3 and 4 positions are up for grabs and we could play several different styles. I'll need to see Haynes defending the perimeter before I decide if he can play 4, but I have a hard time imagining a 260 lb guy staying in front of wings like Demin and Dybantsa.

[zykarious]

I'm currently penciling in Celestine at the 4.

PG: Kriisa 20 / Day Day 10 / Tillery 10
SG: James 25 / Day Day 15
SF: Harris 20 / Abaev 20
PF: Celestine 20 / McKinley 15 / Haynes 5
C: Thiam 25 / Haynes 15

If we get a rebounder like Durugordon, maybe Celestine plays more at the 3.

I'm not convinced by Celestine, his rebounding numbers aren't that good and reading Baylor forums they didn't think he was a good defender. He's a shooter, but that's pretty much it. Seems more like a 10-15 minute per game guy off the bench unless something goes wrong. He'd be very undersized and poor at rebounding for a PF.

I think the plan is for Haynes to start at the 4 and that could spell trouble too, as he's foul prone and struggles to guard the perimeter even as a 5. Maybe we still have money to add a PF, but I expect all the projected starters are already on the roster. I'd like to add bigger wing as a backup who can defend and rebound at the 3 or 4.

My projection as of now.

PG: Day Day 15 / Kriisa 20 / Tillery 5
SG: James 25 / Day Day 10 / Harris 5
SF: Harris 20 / Abaev 15 / Celestine 5
PF: Haynes 20 / McKinley 15 / Celestine 5
C: Thiam 25 / Haynes 5 / McKinley 5 / Dzellat 5

[sedz]

Redshirt for Dzellat?

I don't see value in having more than a 10 man rotation. So yes, I would redshirt Dzellat. Maybe Tillery too if we add another transfer.

[sedz]

this roster unquestionably better than last years.
yes or no?
best decision making metric?
hope the newbies score high on it
I'm excited...again....

Slightly worse per Torvik. We began last season at #27. Our projected roster right now would be #30.

[dmoney70]

this roster unquestionably better than last years.
yes or no?
best decision making metric?
hope the newbies score high on it
I'm excited...again....

I would temper that to save you some heartache later. I mean the Coach hasn't entered the portal, has he?

[red_n_black_attack]

I'm currently penciling in Celestine at the 4.

PG: Kriisa 20 / Day Day 10 / Tillery 10
SG: James 25 / Day Day 15
SF: Harris 20 / Abaev 20
PF: Celestine 20 / McKinley 15 / Haynes 5
C: Thiam 25 / Haynes 15

If we get a rebounder like Durugordon, maybe Celestine plays more at the 3.

Redshirt for Dzellat?