Sad State of Bearcat Basketball

[bearcatbret]

Lance McAlister ·

Follow
13h ·
Updated: Wes Miller record at UC
by NET rankings
Quad 1: 9-41
Quad 2: 18-12
Quad 3: 18-8
Quad 4: 42-2
He's 45-61 minus Quad 4 wins.
Average NET win
2021-2022: 199
2022-2023: 177
2023-2024: 137
2024-2025: 150
2025-2026: 253
Cincinnati Bearcats Men's Basketball

[bearcatbret]

Legends unplugged with T-Nel and Corrie:
UC Legends Unplugged - Crosstown Shootout 2025 Ep1 Season 1

[leeraymond372@gmail.com]

The Quad posting above on Miller is a good post. Miller's win-loss record at each Quad level tells the entire story. Here are Miler's probabilities of winning at each Quad level: Quad 1 (18%); Quad 2 (60%); Quad 3 (69.2%); and Quad 4 (95%). Here is Miller's probability of winning minus Quad 4 games: 42.4%. Here is Miller's probability of winning minus Quad 1 games: 87%.

There are 14 BIG XII teams currently ranked in the Net 100 (UC and Utah are the only two not included this week). Nine (9) BIG XII teams currently do not have any Quad 1 wins, there are six teams with at least one Quad 1 win, and only three teams with at least one Quad 4 loss (UC included).

Over Miller's UC career, he has a 32-42 conference record. That translates into a 56.7% loss rate and probability of losing a conference game. His probability of loss against Quad 1 teams is 82%.

Based on the numbers, it becomes clear that Miller's coaching capabilities are not well suited for big-time college basketball. However, Miller would probably be a pretty good mid-major coach. However, there is another option for Miller. He could get an assistant coaching position with a Hall-of-Fame type of coach and learn all that he can about basketball and how to win. After about 3 to 4 years of learning from a winning and well-established coach, Miller could seek another top-level coaching spot. That strategy could work.

I think what is hurting Miller is that he comes from a weak coaching tree. I know that he played for Roy Williams, but he never coached under Williams. That is a big difference. Miller's coaching tree extends back to Elon College then UNC-Greensboro. Although Elon is now in the CAA, when Miller was there, Elon was a member of the SoCon. UNCG is also a member of the Southern Conference. Miller just does not know enough about coaching and what it takes to win. High standards and the culture of excellence appear to be missing from the program under Miller. These are things that he can learn.

Bob Knight once said, "we all have the will to win, but we all do not do what it takes to prepare to win" (or something like that). Miller is still a young man. If he truly loves coaching, he will eventually make his mark.

[bearcatbret]

CWM buyout numbers:
Look: Year-By-Year Wes Miller Contract Buyout Structure

[Chewbacca2099]

CWM buyout numbers:
Look: Year-By-Year Wes Miller Contract Buyout Structure

question is do we give him yet another year to save the 3.69 million... I know the fans are done.... me included. But honestly JC needs to go first, I don't want him making anymore hires.

[leeraymond372@gmail.com]

question is do we give him yet another year to save the 3.69 million... I know the fans are done.... me included. But honestly JC needs to go first, I don't want him making anymore hires.

Yeah. I am with you on that one. Cunningham and UC officials extended Miller's contract after only his second year. Although Miller's second year was perhaps his best year, it was still a mediocre year by Cincinnati's standards. UC was out of its mind to lock itself into a contract like that with Miller. More power to Miller.

It is not about what you deserve, it is about what you can negotiate.

Is it too late for Miller?

[Gmann]

CWM buyout numbers:
Look: Year-By-Year Wes Miller Contract Buyout Structure

It's incredible that we committed this much guaranteed money to a coach who never won anything at a high level. What a mistake that has proven to be especially as we try to navigate our way through the Big 12.

[sedz]

Let's throw some of that 3.7 million at Doug Davenport. He was video coordinator (scouting/analytics) at Louisville during the 2012-15 stretch when they made four consecutive sweet sixteens including two final fours and a title. Then an assistant for one year at EKU when they had the 9th best shooting team in the country. Then an assistant for his dad at Bellarmine for their D1 transition. Now in his first year as Bellarmine's head coach, they are a top 40 shooting team, taking more shots at the rim than anywhere else on the floor. Bellarmine's defense and rebounding are terrible, but we don't need him for that. Just hand him the keys to the offense.

[Rufus]

But.... But..... don't we have on staff a shot doctor? All joking aside Miller readily admitted that it took him and his buddies, who he originally brought here with him from UNCG, about 5 or more years to figure out the So.conf.! How long is it going to take him to figure out the B12? Nah I' m still joking.

[Lobot]

These are all good points above. I have one glaring question. How much did the Jizzle James situation screw up this team's locker room and on floor chemistry?

[leeraymond372@gmail.com]

Let's throw some of that 3.7 million at Doug Davenport. He was video coordinator (scouting/analytics) at Louisville during the 2012-15 stretch when they made four consecutive sweet sixteens including two final fours and a title. Then an assistant for one year at EKU when they had the 9th best shooting team in the country. Then an assistant for his dad at Bellarmine for their D1 transition. Now in his first year as Bellarmine's head coach, they are a top 40 shooting team, taking more shots at the rim than anywhere else on the floor. Bellarmine's defense and rebounding are terrible, but we don't need him for that. Just hand him the keys to the offense.

Yeah. He is probably a guy that UC can get if it went after him. Who does the school bring in for defense?

[leeraymond372@gmail.com]

These are all good points above. I have one glaring question. How much did the Jizzle James situation screw up this team's locker room and on floor chemistry?

Good thought. I was wondering something similar a couple of days ago. However, I was wondering if UC's offense really misses James' 12 points a game. UC could really use his scoring prowess, especially when the team goes through its normal, at least once a game, scoring drought.

[sedz]

Yeah. He is probably a guy that UC can get if it went after him. Who does the school bring in for defense?

My thinking is if we can't afford to fire Wes, then hire an offense guru as an assistant. So the defense comes from Wes.

There are many obstacles to this plan, principally Davenport's willingness to give up a head coaching role for an assistant role and Wes's willingness to give up coaching strategy. But I can dream.