Bubble Watch / Bracketology

[GoBearcats31]

I've mentioned a couple times that teams with NET rankings in the 30s have missed the field, but I don't know if any top 30 team has missed.

I think these are the highest rated teams in NET history to miss the Tournament

33 NC State (2019)
35 Clemson (2019)
38 Texas (2019)
40 Oklahoma (2022)
40 Rutgers (2023)

Rutgers got in the 2022 NCAA Tournament at #77, the lowest NET to make it

[sedz]

Wake Forest moved up 14 spots in the NET all the way to 26 after their blowout win. I've mentioned a couple times that teams with NET rankings in the 30s have missed the field, but I don't know if any top 30 team has missed. Gonzaga is in a similar situation at #22. Wake is a tale of two teams - at home they're 14-0 with several blowout wins and their only Q1 win over #29 Florida. Away from home they're just 1-9 against quality opponents. They have a huge home opportunity against Duke this Saturday to pick up what would be their flagship win. Their only opportunity for a Q1 road win is at VT the following weekend.

San Francisco was another fringy bubble team trending in the right direction, and they were competitive at St Mary's last night but fell short. If they had won that game and then beaten Gonzaga at home, they could have been in the conversation. But now they are likely eliminated.

Nevada avoided another bad loss to Wyoming. They dropped the Q3 road game a month ago but won the return game by 18.

Iowa picked up their first two Q1 wins of the season in the last two games. They have 3 more Q1 opportunities in their final 4 games, including a pair against Illinois. The Hawkeyes are very much alive.

[GoBearcats31]

Notable Tuesday results:

- #25 BYU tops #11 Baylor, strengthening UC's early January win
- #23 Texas Tech overcomes a 10 point deficit late at home to beat TCU 82-81 -- a TCU win probably could have helped UC in terms of them sneaking back towards Q1 win but the TTU win is strengthened too
- Villanova wins by 10 at home over Butler in a double bubble; Butler was in a better position to begin the day but has now dropped 4/5 and is just 7-9 in the Big East, while Villanova improved to 9-8 in top two quads
- UCF lost by 10 at WVU and is barely hanging in the NET Top 75 (UC's Q2 home win and Q1 road will drop if/when UCF slips to 76 or lower)
- Texas A&M suffered a bad 7 point home loss to .500 Arkansas, moving A&M to 15-11 (3 straight Ls); Aggies are a very solid 6-5 versus Q1 but a wild 2-4 versus Q3
- Wake Forest hammered Pitt 91-58, with Wake inching closer to the field while Pitt's recent efforts to crawl towards the bubble were badly hurt
- Iowa won by 7 at Michigan State to continue to trend in the right direction and get closer to the bubble

[sedz]

UC is 1-2 spots ahead of Villanova on each, several spots below Butler on each. May pull for Butler tonight at Villanova. While it could be interesting to get a cluster in the Big East (Seton Hall is also very bubbly) by virtue of Butler slipping towards the bubble, I am leaning against Villanova since the Wildcats have extremely solid NET and KenPom ratings in the 30s (higher than UC) despite generally being on the outside looking in.

Usually I root for the home team in these double bubble games so no Q1 wins are handed out. Could go either way with this one.

[GoBearcats31]

Lots of bracketology updates come out on Tuesday. I can't track down all the blogs that are posting high quality, but under the radar brackets. But here are some new updates:

CBS - UC is the first team out https://www.cbssports.com/college-ba.../bracketology/
USA Today - UC is the last team in, playing in Dayton (with a chance to play in...wait for it...Spokane!) https://www.usatoday.com/story/sport...e/72654887007/
Bracketville - UC is the first team out https://bracketville.wordpress.com/bracketology/
ESPN - UC is the third team out https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/st...ld-predictions

Tuesday updates from a couple of the top ranked bracketologists:

https://131sports.com/2024/02/20/1-3...bruary-20th-9/
UC second team out (same place where they have been, as sedz has noted)

https://jakelikersbracketology.wordpress.com/
UC first team out

UC is 1-2 spots ahead of Villanova on each, several spots below Butler on each. May pull for Butler tonight at Villanova. While it could be interesting to get a cluster in the Big East (Seton Hall is also very bubbly) by virtue of Butler slipping towards the bubble, I am leaning against Villanova since the Wildcats have extremely solid NET and KenPom ratings in the 30s (higher than UC) despite generally being on the outside looking in.

[sedz]

TCU at Texas Tech - 9:00, ESPN2

I'll be rooting for TCU, hoping they can move into the top 30 and give us another Q1 win. Likewise, UCF at West Virginia is a big game for our resume, as UCF needs to stay in the top 75.

[sedz]

I can't track down all the blogs that are posting high quality, but under the radar brackets.

Bracketologist rankings are here: http://www.bracketmatrix.com/rankings.html
Clicking the blue link will take you to each blog. Most update 1-3 times a week, but 131sports updates daily.

Or you can look at the main page: http://www.bracketmatrix.com
It usually updates daily - sometimes midday, sometimes in the evening. ESPN and CBS are listed first, followed by the most recently updated brackets. 131 comes first alphabetically so it's conveniently right next to ESPN and CBS most of the time.

[GoBearcats31]

Lots of bracketology updates come out on Tuesday. I can't track down all the blogs that are posting high quality, but under the radar brackets. But here are some new updates:

CBS - UC is the first team out https://www.cbssports.com/college-ba.../bracketology/
USA Today - UC is the last team in, playing in Dayton (with a chance to play in...wait for it...Spokane!) https://www.usatoday.com/story/sport...e/72654887007/
Bracketville - UC is the first team out https://bracketville.wordpress.com/bracketology/
ESPN - UC is the third team out https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/st...ld-predictions

Beating Oklahoma State on Wednesday won't move the needle much--though nothing wrong with staying afloat, as UC really cannot afford to drop a game like this (especially at home).


Also... some Tuesday bubble action. Some teams like TCU are in for now but not a sure thing, whereas teams on the other end of the spectrum like Iowa and Pitt have played well enough recently to get into the discussion. The most bubbly teams right now are Butler, Villanova, A&M, Wake, Nevada.

Butler at Villanova - 6:30, FS1
Iowa at Michigan State - 7:00, Peacock
Arkansas at Texas A&M - 7:00, ESPN
TCU at Texas Tech - 9:00, ESPN2
Pitt at Wake Forest - 9:00, ACC
San Jose State at Boise State - 10:30, FS1
Wyoming at Nevada - 11:00, CBSSN

[sedz]

Virginia is a 9 seed on Bracket Matrix. They were 41 in NET, 53 KenPom earlier but just lost by 34 points at Virginia Tech. Already down to 65 in KenPom…Welcome back to the bubble.

That was basically equivalent to our game at UCF, and Virginia got steamrolled while we pulled out a W.

Virginia only has two Q1 wins right now. They've got a couple of big chances left - home vs UNC and at Duke. Their resume won't be great if they drop both of those.

Edit: Virginia fell 9 spots to 50 and VT moved up 9 spots to 53. Crazy what a 34 point blowout can do.

[Corporateballa]

This is a fantastic thread. Thank you to everyone who did the homework for us and for taking the time to share your perspective. Extremely helpful.

[GoBearcats31]

Virginia is a 9 seed on Bracket Matrix. They were 41 in NET, 53 KenPom earlier but just lost by 34 points at Virginia Tech. Already down to 65 in KenPom…Welcome back to the bubble.

[GoBearcats31]

Maybe we will get a Utah vs UC game in Dayton in the Gabe Madsen Cup

[swilsonsp4]

Margin of victory caused by an obvious flagrant 2 foul on UCLA's Mack mid game. Elbow to the throat. Ugly cheapshot. I'm sure Mick wasn't thrilled.

In a bit of irony, the player that received the forearm shiver to the throat was Branden Carlson, the Ute who won the game with the put-back before the horn. Carlson is Utah's leading scorer on the season.

[Lobot]

Utah beats UCLA on wild last possession. Finger roll layup hits the top of the backboard, teammate putback good with 0.2. 70-69.

Margin of victory caused by an obvious flagrant 2 foul on UCLA's Mack mid game. Elbow to the throat. Ugly cheapshot. I'm sure Mick wasn't thrilled.

[sedz]

Not much to argue with here. I think the path you laid out in the last paragraph is the bare minimum that needs to happen for us to even be 50/50 on Selection Sunday. In that scenario we'd finish with a 5-9 Q1 record and 2-2 Q2 record. We desperately need UCF to stay top 75 (currently #68) and could greatly benefit from Kansas St (#81) pulling off a few more upset wins so our home game against them can rise to Q2.

Looking at our remaining road games, TCU is 5-3 since we first met and Oklahoma is 3-5. Both games are winnable but will be equally tough.

Our NET ranking has steadily dropped over the course of Big 12 play. It was up to #24 after the BYU win and currently sits at #37. Even if we only win one more road game this regular season, winning our 3 home games by sizable margins versus barely squeaking them out could be the difference between 10 or so spots in the NET rankings. A higher NET ranking could be as good as 1 or 2 extra quality wins through the eyes of the committee.

A quick look at bubble teams (or even seeding of top teams) from past years will show that a team's NET ranking is almost irrelevant. Q1/2 records are much more important, and things like out of conference SOS and road record are often cited as tiebreakers by the committee. Teams with NET rankings in the 70s have made the field (Rutgers was 80 a couple years ago), and teams in the 30s have missed the cut. Last year Tennessee had a NET ranking of 4 but got a 4 seed, and FAU got a 9 seed despite a NET ranking of 13. Arizona St (9 Q1/2 wins) and Pitt (three Q1 road wins) made the field with NET rankings of 66 and 67, while Rutgers (4 bad losses) and North Texas (one Q1 win) missed out despite top 40 rankings.

It's going to come down to what our resume looks like compared to other teams near the cut line, which is why we track what bubble teams are doing here. We didn't move up much because Seton Hall, Utah, and Nevada also picked up quality wins. Ole Miss, Gonzaga, and Providence avoided bad losses, which we need to do this week.