Bubble Watch / Bracketology

[sedz]

Indiana St just lost a Q2 road game at #117 Southern Illinois 74-69. Jarrett Hensley had a big block with 10 seconds left in the game.

Their second straight loss. Drake might now have the best resume in the MVC. Despite a trio of bad losses, they're 3-1 in Q1 (though the home win over Indiana St will probably drop to Q2 now).

[sedz]

This might sound crazy but I really think Kentucky could be in trouble if they go 0-4 in their remaining Q1 games, beginning at Auburn tomorrow night. The way they're playing now that's a real possibility. They'd be 2-9 in Q1 if that happens, and they've got a bad home loss to UNC Wilmington.

Kentucky won at Auburn - so much for that idea.

[sedz]

There are so many different ways to examine bubble teams, and who knows what the committee will emphasize. But one metric where UC will likely stand out is performance in true road games.

UC is now 4-4 including three Q1 road victories plus Howard (hoping UCF stays top 75 in the NET).

Utah is 1-5. Mississippi State is 0-6. Nebraska is 1-7. Villanova is 2-6.

Counterpoint: Miss State is 6-0 in neutral court games …

Yep, our great road performance will hopefully be able to overcome our poor out of conference slate. Three Q1 road wins puts us a leg up on many bubble teams.

[Carthage World]

Indiana St just lost a Q2 road game at #117 Southern Illinois 74-69. Jarrett Hensley had a big block with 10 seconds left in the game.

[GoBearcats31]

Indiana State goes 0-2 this week, which I would guess hurts their ability to get an at-large bid/reduces likelihood of an eventual bid thief out of the MVC.

ISU lost at Southern Illinois tonight. Massive block by Jarrett Hensley late to effectively preserve the win.

[GoBearcats31]

I wonder if Samford could get a look as an at-large. They took advantage of their last remaining quality game last night, winning at UNCG. Samford currently sits at 19-3 with a 2-2 record in Q1/Q2 games and one bad loss. If they take care of business the rest of the way and lose in the conference tourney final, they'd be 28-4. But without a Q1 win, it probably won't be enough. Such is life for small conference teams.

Samford lost today

[GoBearcats31]

There are so many different ways to examine bubble teams, and who knows what the committee will emphasize. But one metric where UC will likely stand out is performance in true road games.

UC is now 4-4 including three Q1 road victories plus Howard (hoping UCF stays top 75 in the NET).

Utah is 1-5. Mississippi State is 0-6. Nebraska is 1-7. Villanova is 2-6.

Counterpoint: Miss State is 6-0 in neutral court games …

[GoBearcats31]

Wake Forest, Texas A&M, and Butler have already lost today. We're the first team out on bracketmatrix. A tournament spot is there for the taking if we can get the Q1 road win.

For what it’s worth, TAMU and Butler both got crushed

Wake Forest lost 49-47
Nebraska won by 19
Butler lost by 22
Texas A&M lost by 25
TCU beat KSU by 3

[sedz]

Wake Forest, Texas A&M, and Butler have already lost today. We're the first team out on bracketmatrix. A tournament spot is there for the taking if we can get the Q1 road win.

[Carthage World]

Villanova won by 16 at Georgetown to rise 4 spots overnight to #34 in NET. Their resume is a fascinating one as they have a respectable 3-6 Q1 record and a 5-2 Q2 record but an abysmal 2-3 Q3 record.

New Mexico lost by 11 at SDSU last night but only dropped one spot in NET to #23. They are 3-3 in Q1 and 1-2 in Q2 with 1 Q3 loss. They have 2 guaranteed Q1 games remaining (@Boise St and @Utah St) along with a fringe Q1/Q2 home game against Colorado St among their final 5 regular season games.

[sedz]

Here are some bubbly games to keep an eye on this weekend...

Great list, I appreciate the times and networks.

This might sound crazy but I really think Kentucky could be in trouble if they go 0-4 in their remaining Q1 games, beginning at Auburn tomorrow night. The way they're playing now that's a real possibility. They'd be 2-9 in Q1 if that happens, and they've got a bad home loss to UNC Wilmington.

[GoBearcats31]

Here are some bubbly games to keep an eye on this weekend -- feel free to add more if you see them. Underline refers to bubble team. Some teams are barely in the discussion (Oregon) whereas others may be in good shape as it stands today but far from safe (New Mexico) - most in the middle.


Friday
Villanova at Georgetown (7:00 CBSSN)
New Mexico at San Diego State (10:00 FS1)

Saturday
Texas A&M at #15 Alabama (12:00 ESPN)
Wake Forest at #21 Virginia (12:00 ESPN2)
TCU at Kansas State (12:00 ESPNU)
Penn State at Nebraska (12:00 BTN)
#17 Creighton at Butler (12:30 FOX)
Arkansas at Mississippi State (2:00 ESPNU)
**Cincinnati at UCF (4:00 ESPN+)
Stanford at Washington State (6:00 Pac12)
Georgia Southern at James Madison (6:00 ESPN+)
#23 Indiana State at Southern Illinois (7:00 ESPN+)
Fresno State at Boise State (7:30 CBSSN)
DePaul at Providence (7:30 FS1)
Missouri at Ole Miss (8:30 SEC)
Pacific at Gonzaga (9:00 ESPN+)
Oregon at Oregon State (10:00 Pac12)
Nevada at UNLV (11:30)

Sunday
Northwestern at Indiana (3:00 FS1)
Memphis at SMU (4:00 ESPN)
Seton Hall at St. John's (5:00 FS1)
Utah at UCLA (7:00 FS1)

[Lobot]

Bubble watch article from The Athletic. They have us in Bubble Trouble ($)

https://theathletic.com/5275838/2024...is-iowa-state/

First four out here as well:

https://theathletic.com/5277448/2024...top-16-reveal/

[sedz]

Just realized/remembered the following: "the top two teams in the NET rankings from each of the major six conferences (ACC, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, Pac-12, SEC) that did not qualify for the NCAA Tournament will earn the first 12 NIT automatic bids and have the right to host first-round games." https://www.cbssports.com/college-ba...irst-12-spots/

While this thread is geared towards UC hopefully make the NCAA Tournament, given the team's NET ranking (assuming they don't tank down the stretch) they are on track for an NIT bid it would seem. But noting that the transfer portal opens the day after Selection Sunday, I believe, it could make for a weird event. UC, as of now, projects to have good roster stability heading into next season. But there will be other teams that could look like a college football team playing a bowl game with guys immediately portaling and/or wanting to sit out to protect draft stock.

As a fan of college basketball in general, I don't like the NIT changes. Small and mid-major conference winners are no longer given an automatic invite. For many of those schools, it was their only opportunity to potentially host a major conference team. We experienced that last year as we travelled to Hofstra and Utah Valley. They're trying to generate more revenue by getting more major teams in there, but it's still going to be a secondary tournament. I think they're more likely to get some passionate fans from small schools who are excited to be there than programs like ours that will be mostly disinterested.

[GoBearcats31]

Just realized/remembered the following: "the top two teams in the NET rankings from each of the major six conferences (ACC, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, Pac-12, SEC) that did not qualify for the NCAA Tournament will earn the first 12 NIT automatic bids and have the right to host first-round games." https://www.cbssports.com/college-ba...irst-12-spots/

While this thread is geared towards UC hopefully make the NCAA Tournament, given the team's NET ranking (assuming they don't tank down the stretch) they are on track for an NIT bid it would seem. But noting that the transfer portal opens the day after Selection Sunday, I believe, it could make for a weird event. UC, as of now, projects to have good roster stability heading into next season. But there will be other teams that could look like a college football team playing a bowl game with guys immediately portaling and/or wanting to sit out to protect draft stock.