Bracketology 2025

[swilsonsp4]

The tourney basically started for UC after WVII. Win and advance or lose (barring Coogs) and be done. Any bad losses from then until selection Sunday and they are done.

Given that the Cats keep playing well and winning, they wouldn't face Houston in the B12 tourney until Thursday at the earliest. Before that time, the field of 68 likely will be set (just not the final seeding), making that game irrelevant. This is based upon the experiences of Andy Katz, who participated in an NCAA-sponsored mock committee, as well as his discussions with experienced committee members.

Katz said that the committee normally are done with selection by the end of Wednesday night, but might leak into Thursday. Beyond that, they finish up with seeding over the next few days, before handing it over to CBS. Therefore, it is incumbent upon the Bearcats to win all of the next four games and hope other bubble teams falter.

It would help if Baylor can move into the Top 30 in NET, as neither of UC's next two opponents are close to Q1 status. In fact, K-State likely will be a home Q3 foe. They're at #82, and a UC win wouldn't move the needle towards #75. The only other Q1 possibility would be for UCF to get their act together and move up from #81. That's going to be a chore for the Knights, who play Okie State tonight in Orlando (not much help) and then finish up in Morgantown. After winning two early B12 road games, UCF have lost six straight, mostly in lopsided fashion. Their defensive efficiency, as measured by KenPom, is the worst in the conference by a wide margin.

So, we get to sweat it out.

[leeraymond]

Given that the Cats keep playing well and winning, they wouldn't face Houston in the B12 tourney until Thursday at the earliest. Before that time, the field of 68 likely will be set (just not the final seeding), making that game irrelevant. This is based upon the experiences of Andy Katz, who participated in an NCAA-sponsored mock committee, as well as his discussions with experienced committee members.

Katz said that the committee normally are done with selection by the end of Wednesday night, but might leak into Thursday. Beyond that, they finish up with seeding over the next few days, before handing it over to CBS. Therefore, it is incumbent upon the Bearcats to win all of the next four games and hope other bubble teams falter.

It would help if Baylor can move into the Top 30 in NET, as neither of UC's next two opponents are close to Q1 status. In fact, K-State likely will be a home Q3 foe. They're at #82, and a UC win wouldn't move the needle towards #75. The only other Q1 possibility would be for UCF to get their act together and move up from #81. That's going to be a chore for the Knights, who play Okie State tonight in Orlando (not much help) and then finish up in Morgantown. After winning two early B12 road games, UCF have lost six straight, mostly in lopsided fashion. Their defensive efficiency, as measured by KenPom, is the worst in the conference by a wide margin.

So, we get to sweat it out.

A lot of ifs. Cincinnati, NIT, here we come again for the 3rd year. Maybe UC can get pass a mid-major this time and earn its way into the NIT Final Four. That would be kind of nice. Besides, it would give UC extra practices for next year.

[Chewbacca2099]

I wish they could make the NIT more exciting and relevant by giving a round of 32 or sweet 16 slot to the winner or something... I know the timing and math probably doesn't work out for that...

[GoBearcats31]

I wish they could make the NIT more exciting and relevant by giving a round of 32 or sweet 16 slot to the winner or something... I know the timing and math probably doesn't work out for that...

This is about as exciting as you'll get https://www.foxsports.com/stories/co...son-tournament

The College Basketball Crown, a 16-team men's postseason tournament, will take place from March 31 to April 6 in Las Vegas and will air on FOX and FS1.

The tournament will feature schools from the Big Ten, Big 12 and Big East, in addition to at-large participants. Teams that did not participate for the NCAA Tournament will be eligible for the event, with two automatic qualifiers coming from each participating conference, and additional teams chosen by a select committee.

(UC would definitely have the highest NET among Big 12 teams missing the NCAA Tournament if they do not get in ... notably, I believe the transfer portal window opens on March 24)

[bearcatbret]

Houston has a 49-percent chance of making the final 4 per 247Sports College basketball's 10 teams with most Final Four potential

[sedz]

We would have lost ground tonight even if we won because Oklahoma and Xavier both picked up quality wins. The Sooners will probably leap into the field after a huge win against Missouri. We may see 14 SEC teams in the tournament.

[bearcatbret]

When it comes to football, I am usually in favor of playing in any bowl game. The reason is that it gives the team extra practices that should translate into a better next season. I used to feel the same way about playing in the NIT when our team does not make the NCAA tournament. However, this year, I do not feel that extra practices will convert to a better 2025-26 season. I have no interest in watching this team play in post season.

[Carthage World]

17-14 record at the end of the regular season... 7-13 conference record... Final KenPom ranking in the mid-50s... 9 combined Q1/Q2 victories... Lost their final three regular season games... Was firmly in the bubble conversation up until a few days ago.

I'm talking about UC, right?

Nope. I'm actually talking Nebraska who, despite having an eerily identical profile to UC in many areas, actually had a much more brutal end to their regular season.

They started Big Ten play with a 2-7 record (look familiar?).
Then, won 5 of their next 6 games, amassing 3 Q1 wins (2 of which were Q1-A) and 2 Q2 wins.

As of 2/17, they were 17-9 overall, 7-8 in the Big Ten, and firmly IN per most NCAA tournament projections.

Then, they...

Lost 89-72 @Penn St
Lost 49-46 against Michigan (missing a game-tying shot at the buzzer)
Lost 67-65 against Minnesota (Minnesota hit the game-winning 3 with 4 seconds left before Nebraska missed a deep 3 to win at the buzzer)
Lost 116-114 @OSU in double OT (blew chances to win in regulation and first OT - nail in the coffin)
Lost 83-68 against Iowa today with their bubble already burst.

Just a little perspective that as bad as our current situation is, there are teams out there that are hurting worse.

[sedz]

So there ended up being only one bid stealer. But Colorado St may have stolen a bid from its own conference. The consensus is that San Diego St, Indiana, Texas, Boise St, Xavier, and UNC are battling for the final 3 spots. It will be interesting to see how much the committee weighs Wins Above Bubble (WAB) and a potential 14 bid league for the first time.

UNC has the best WAB of that group (#42), plus the best NET ranking (#36), but they have a poor resume (#70) that includes just one Q1 win. Xavier also has a poor resume (#61) with only one Q1 win but is top 50 in the metrics categories. On the other side of that coin is Texas, who has a great resume (#28), but a worse WAB (#53) and a conference record well under .500. Boise St and San Diego St have identical 8-8 Q1/2 records and have very similar resumes featuring two great OOC wins - Boise has a better NET ranking but one extra bad loss. Indiana has the worst NET ranking of the group (#54) but no losses outside Q1.

So what does the committee value? We'll find out in a bit. My personal opinion is that resumes should matter more than NET rankings for selection. It needs to matter who actually wins games. So I would leave out UNC and Xavier. My last spot is down to Boise St and Indiana - my head gives it to Indiana but I'd rather see Boise.

It will also be interesting to see where Gonzaga is seeded. Their metrics (NET #8, Kenpom #9) indicate a 2 or 3 seed, but WAB (#33) and resume (#44) point to a 9 or worse. On the flip side of that are Ole Miss, Michigan, Oregon, and UCLA, who have top 15 resumes (3-4 seed) but 25+ NET rankings (7 seed). Their seeds will also tell us what the committee values more.

[sedz]

For evaluation:

	In	Out
Lunardi	SD St, Indiana, Xavier	Boise St, Texas, UNC
Palm	Indiana, SD St, Boise St	Xavier, Texas, UNC
Torvik	SD St, Texas, Xavier	Boise St, UNC, Indiana

[sedz]

UNC is in, which is a message that metrics matter more than Q1 wins.

[sedz]

Xavier also gets in, same message us UNC that Q1 wins don't matter. But then Gonzaga gets an 8, which is a message that metrics don't mean anything.

UCLA drops to a 7, so their poor NET ranking hurt. But it didn't hurt Ole Miss or Oregon.

So we have an inconsistent committee that's hard to predict.

[leo from jersey]

[QUOTE=sedz;n424770]Xavier also gets in, same message us UNC that Q1 wins don't matter. But then Gonzaga gets an 8, which is a message that metrics don't mean anything.

UCLA drops to a 7, so their poor NET ranking hurt. But it didn't hurt Ole Miss or Oregon.

So we have an inconsistent committee that's hard to predict.



the eye test f how did you lay n certain games and the school's rep matter. UC used to have a good rep as did the Buckeyes.]

[sedz]

The committee shocked everyone by leaving West Virginia out. They were included in all 111 brackets on bracketmatrix.

If there are any consistent takeaways here, it's that a bad conference record doesn't matter, and that metrics are extremely important for bubble teams. West Virginia finished #53 in Kenpom, worse than any of the 6 bubble teams discussed above. That overweighed 6 Q1 wins (4 of those Q1-A) and no bad losses. Margin of victory matters. I think that's bad for the game.

[longtimefan]

The committee shocked everyone by leaving West Virginia out. They were included in all 111 brackets on bracketmatrix.

If there are any consistent takeaways here, it's that a bad conference record doesn't matter, and that metrics are extremely important for bubble teams. West Virginia finished #53 in Kenpom, worse than any of the 6 bubble teams discussed above. That overweighed 6 Q1 wins (4 of those Q1-A) and no bad losses. Margin of victory matters. I think that's bad for the game.

Me too. The fact that there are no non league games after late December anymore also hurts. Strength of schedule is pretty much locked in after the new year.