2025-26 Roster

[swilsonsp4]

Based on the scouting, Tillery is a true floor general, he may have a leg up on getting playing time at PG. Only Kerr and DayDay are true PGs, and neither are excellent passers. I think Tillery takes 12-15 minutes at PG with Kerr or DayDay sliding over to SG when Jizzle takes a break. I'd really like two excellent ball handlers and passers on the floor together with the wing/Bigs coming in. I know that really doesn't fit Wes' offensive scheme, but man the possibilities are high.

Kriisa isn't an excellent passer? He led the P12 in assists in 2021-22 with 155 and had even more the next season (180). After his 2023-24 suspension, which limited him to 23 games, he had 109 more. His D1 career A:TO is 2:1.

[sedz]

Based on the scouting, Tillery is a true floor general, he may have a leg up on getting playing time at PG. Only Kerr and DayDay are true PGs, and neither are excellent passers. I think Tillery takes 12-15 minutes at PG with Kerr or DayDay sliding over to SG when Jizzle takes a break. I'd really like two excellent ball handlers and passers on the floor together with the wing/Bigs coming in. I know that really doesn't fit Wes' offensive scheme, but man the possibilities are high.

If that's the case then somebody else is being pushed out of playing time. Either Harris or if he slides down to SF then Celestine. Just not enough minutes to go around for 11 players.

[daveh]

If that's the case then somebody else is being pushed out of playing time. Either Harris or if he slides down to SF then Celestine. Just not enough minutes to go around for 11 players.

its called competiton - guys pushing each other - no mumbo jumbo stats on this, but let the best man get the most minutes

[zykarious]

If that's the case then somebody else is being pushed out of playing time. Either Harris or if he slides down to SF then Celestine. Just not enough minutes to go around for 11 players.

Some guys are getting pushed out of minutes no matter what, it's a good problem to have as long as you can manage the locker room - which Wes seems to do well. Plus not every transfer is a hit (even coming from another big 12 team) and some freshmen (even ones rated as high as Abaev) don't always earn minutes, especially in year one. So we can wait to see what guys go before we worry about quality players getting pushed out. It's safe to assume 2/3 guys won't perform to the level of current fan expectations.

There are three guys I'm confident will average 25 plus minutes per game, Day Day, Baba and Thiam. Competition could go a lot of different ways between everyone else.

Bana/Thiam at the 4/5 leave 30 minutes to split between 4 guys (Celestine, Haynes, McKinley and Dzellat), that means one, two or maybe even three of them don't get the minutes they are hoping for. Celestine isn't really a 3, he will struggle defensively, maybe that can be overcome with the right lineup. Haynes may just be a backup 5 and could be pushed out of that role by Baba or McKinley. There's little reason to believe he can play good enough defense to be a 4. McKinley may struggle and not earn any real minutes. Dzellat probably stays on the bench.

Harris is much more of a 3 than Celestine, which opens more minutes up at guard. But there's other ways minutes could open up for Tillery. It's possible Kriisa's minutes will be limited because of his defense and Tillery. Or maybe we good enough on defense that a defense first guy like Harris is more a luxury than a need.

[daveh]

Some guys are getting pushed out of minutes no matter what, it's a good problem to have as long as you can manage the locker room - which Wes seems to do well. Plus not every transfer is a hit (even coming from another big 12 team) and some freshmen (even ones rated as high as Abaev) don't always earn minutes, especially in year one. So we can wait to see what guys go before we worry about quality players getting pushed out. It's safe to assume 2/3 guys won't perform to the level of current fan expectations.

There are three guys I'm confident will average 25 plus minutes per game, Day Day, Baba and Thiam. Competition could go a lot of different ways between everyone else.

Bana/Thiam at the 4/5 leave 30 minutes to split between 4 guys (Celestine, Haynes, McKinley and Dzellat), that means one, two or maybe even three of them don't get the minutes they are hoping for. Celestine isn't really a 3, he will struggle defensively, maybe that can be overcome with the right lineup. Haynes may just be a backup 5 and could be pushed out of that role by Baba or McKinley. There's little reason to believe he can play good enough defense to be a 4. McKinley may struggle and not earn any real minutes. Dzellat probably stays on the bench.

Harris is much more of a 3 than Celestine, which opens more minutes up at guard. But there's other ways minutes could open up for Tillery. It's possible Kriisa's minutes will be limited because of his defense and Tillery. Or maybe we good enough on defense that a defense first guy like Harris is more a luxury than a need.

hasn't krissa been hurt a lot? injuries will also effect playing time - it somehow usually works itself out

[sedz]

Some guys are getting pushed out of minutes no matter what, it's a good problem to have as long as you can manage the locker room - which Wes seems to do well. Plus not every transfer is a hit (even coming from another big 12 team) and some freshmen (even ones rated as high as Abaev) don't always earn minutes, especially in year one. So we can wait to see what guys go before we worry about quality players getting pushed out. It's safe to assume 2/3 guys won't perform to the level of current fan expectations.

There are three guys I'm confident will average 25 plus minutes per game, Day Day, Baba and Thiam. Competition could go a lot of different ways between everyone else.

Bana/Thiam at the 4/5 leave 30 minutes to split between 4 guys (Celestine, Haynes, McKinley and Dzellat), that means one, two or maybe even three of them don't get the minutes they are hoping for. Celestine isn't really a 3, he will struggle defensively, maybe that can be overcome with the right lineup. Haynes may just be a backup 5 and could be pushed out of that role by Baba or McKinley. There's little reason to believe he can play good enough defense to be a 4. McKinley may struggle and not earn any real minutes. Dzellat probably stays on the bench.

Harris is much more of a 3 than Celestine, which opens more minutes up at guard. But there's other ways minutes could open up for Tillery. It's possible Kriisa's minutes will be limited because of his defense and Tillery. Or maybe we good enough on defense that a defense first guy like Harris is more a luxury than a need.

Sounds like you agree that the rotation will be no more than 10 (in conference play). Who ends up forced out is an open question and one that may be settled by injury. I just think that we often overestimate how good freshmen will be, so a Tillery redshirt seems realistic at least. I hope he's better than Kriisa and a redshirt will sound like a dumb idea next winter.

[zykarious]

Sounds like you agree that the rotation will be no more than 10 (in conference play). Who ends up forced out is an open question and one that may be settled by injury. I just think that we often overestimate how good freshmen will be, so a Tillery redshirt seems realistic at least. I hope he's better than Kriisa and a redshirt will sound like a dumb idea next winter.

I think the rotation will be closer to 8 than 10 in conference. Barring injury, Tillery will have to beat out Kriisa or choose between playing 5 or fewer minutes per game and red-shirting.

My belief is that fans generally overestimate the impact freshmen and transfers will have and underestimate returning players.

Assuming everyone stays healthy, the rotation in conference is probably along the lines of.

Kriisa, Day Day and Jizzle get virtually all of the guard minutes. Kriisa may be the weakest link because he's not a good defender. I'd argue Day Day is the best positioned for minutes as he is the best defender of the 3 and is a very good 3-point shooter.

Harris/Abaev share minutes at the 3, with the split slightly in Harris's favor (25/15) unless Abaev excels.

MIller/Thiam take the majority of the minutes at the 4/5, with Celestine/McKinley/Haynes/Dzellat fighting for the scraps. The backup for each game may be situational or one guy may stand out from the pack, take the majority of the backup minutes and keep the other 3 on the bench. It sounds like McKinley is the most well rounded, but he also hasn't done anything at the college level yet. Celestine/Haynes seem more like a situational rotation pair.

[DesertFog]

So what are the statistical models predicting for the upcoming season now that Baba Miller has been added to the fold?

[sedz]

So what are the statistical models predicting for the upcoming season now that Baba Miller has been added to the fold?

#29 overall. Offense #47, defense #17.

[sedz]

I think the rotation will be closer to 8 than 10 in conference. Barring injury, Tillery will have to beat out Kriisa or choose between playing 5 or fewer minutes per game and red-shirting.

My belief is that fans generally overestimate the impact freshmen and transfers will have and underestimate returning players.

Assuming everyone stays healthy, the rotation in conference is probably along the lines of.

Kriisa, Day Day and Jizzle get virtually all of the guard minutes. Kriisa may be the weakest link because he's not a good defender. I'd argue Day Day is the best positioned for minutes as he is the best defender of the 3 and is a very good 3-point shooter.

Harris/Abaev share minutes at the 3, with the split slightly in Harris's favor (25/15) unless Abaev excels.

MIller/Thiam take the majority of the minutes at the 4/5, with Celestine/McKinley/Haynes/Dzellat fighting for the scraps. The backup for each game may be situational or one guy may stand out from the pack, take the majority of the backup minutes and keep the other 3 on the bench. It sounds like McKinley is the most well rounded, but he also hasn't done anything at the college level yet. Celestine/Haynes seem more like a situational rotation pair.

Right, I think 10 is the maximum rotation. 8 is probably ideal.

I don't know if it matters what position we assign to Harris. He should be on the other team's best guard when he's on the floor, whether that's the PG, SG, or SF. I think he could play alongside Abaev at times. They're both wings, which spot becomes irrelevant. Same with Celestine. He played mostly the 3 spot before Ojianwuna got hurt, and mostly the 4 afterward. His production was roughly the same, so he's capable of playing both positions. But just like with Kriisa and Tillery, I think best case is Abaev and McKinley are both good enough that Celestine can't earn minutes.

[bearcatbret]

Call me crazy but if the team does not pass better, dribble less and quit me-balling, it does not matter.

[Oldtimer_UC_fan]

#29 overall. Offense #47, defense #17.

I'm really thinking that we will need Abaev's offense.

[GoBearcats31]

#29 overall. Offense #47, defense #17.

And what did they finish last year?

[sedz]

And what did they finish last year?

On Torvik we finished #44 overall, offense #89, defense #19.
We began last year #27 overall, offense #38, defense #27.
Going into next year #29 overall, offense #47, defense #17.

I think the model is giving us a negative coaching adjustment on offense based on how we performed last year.

[DesertFog]

On Torvik we finished #44 overall, offense #89, defense #19.
We began last year #27 overall, offense #38, defense #27.
Going into next year #29 overall, offense #47, defense #17.

I think the model is giving us a negative coaching adjustment on offense based on how we performed last year.

Does the model specifically account for coaching? Not to nit pick, but maybe it would be more accurate to infer that any negative adjustment may be related to the observed discrepancy between predicted finish and actual finish last year.