Basketball Transfer Portal '25

[GoBearcats31]

Take with a huge grain of salt, but ...

Current 247 transfer portal rankings

Outgoing:
- 54 Mitchell
- 217 Skillings
- 257 Betsey
- 307 Page
- 366 Reed
- NR: Hickman, Griffith

Incoming:
- 22 Thiam
- 162 Celestine
- 220 Kriisa
- 264 Harris
- NR: Haynes



On3 rankings

Outgoing:
- 56 Mitchell
- 132 Betsey
- 205 Skillings
- NR: Page, Reed, Hickman, Griifth

Incoming:
- 13 Thiam
- 171 Harris
- 187 Haynes
- NR: Celestine, Kriisa

[sedz]

Huge grain of salt here too. NetRtg is the production we need to replace. It's BPM weighted by minutes played.

OUTGOING	BPM	%min	NetRtg
Mitchell	6.8	70.2	4.8
Skillings	5.8	47.2	2.7
Reed	3.1	41.5	1.3
Page	1.2	20.0	0.2
Betsey	-1.2	27.2	-0.3
Hickman	-2.5	18.4	-0.5
Griffith	-3.5	7.7	-0.3

INCOMING	BPM	%min	NetRtg
Thiam	3.1	64.9	2.0
Harris	2.7	66.1	1.8
Haynes	2.8	62.8	1.8
Celestine	1.9	54.8	1.0
Kriisa	3.3	10.9	0.4

We lost a total of 8.0 to the transfer portal and we currently have 7.0 incoming. Of course this doesn't attempt to predict player progression, regression, or change in minutes. We lost another 4.9 to graduation and we return 4.7. Add those up and our total NetRtg last year was 17.6. Incoming plus returning is 11.7. Maybe we get 3.0 from freshmen, bringing the total to 14.7. We need to be at least 20 for an at large bid. That would mean about 1 BPM progression on average per position. Seems doable.

[sedz]

BearcatBunch added some rather speculative names to their tracker based on Kriisa following their social media (Ian Schieffelin, Ven-Allen Lubin, Rylan Griffin). I doubt those are serious connections.

Andre Morgan followed AK Okereke, 6'7 forward from Cornell. That would be a home run. Okereke posted a 7.2 BPM this year as a high usage point forward and slasher. I don't know what to make of any of these connections though. We're probably out of money.

[GoBearcats31]

We lost a total of 8.0 to the transfer portal and we currently have 7.0 incoming. Of course this doesn't attempt to predict player progression, regression, or change in minutes. We lost another 4.9 to graduation and we return 4.7. Add those up and our total NetRtg last year was 17.6. Incoming plus returning is 11.7. Maybe we get 3.0 from freshmen, bringing the total to 14.7. We need to be at least 20 for an at large bid. That would mean about 1 BPM progression on average per position. Seems doable.

Losing 8.0 and adding 7.0 but currently have 7 dudes out the door and 5 incoming -- do these numbers account for that?

Where do your numbers / advanced stats come from anyways?

[sedz]

Losing 8.0 and adding 7.0 but currently have 7 dudes out the door and 5 incoming -- do these numbers account for that?

Where do your numbers / advanced stats come from anyways?

Outgoing is accounted for. The bottom three guys had terrible BPMs but they barely played so the total impact is only about negative 1. Mitchell on the other hand played 70% available minutes with a 6.8 BPM. That leaves a gaping 4.8 hole.

Incoming is harder to say because we don't know how many minutes these guys will play. I just used last year. Kriisa will probably play more and Harris will play less than that. But overall I think it evens out.

I use Torvik for almost everything. https://www.barttorvik.com/team.php?...nati&year=2025

[DesertFog]

I am a huge stats fan, but what is missing is a stat that accounts for the importance and effectiveness of the coach.

[sedz]

I am a huge stats fan, but what is missing is a stat that accounts for the importance and effectiveness of the coach.

Yes, absolutely. That's the reason our roster was ranked #27 going into last season but we finished #44. It doesn't matter how good your players are if they're going to stand around and watch one guy chuck up 40% midrange jumpers. But I can't control that. All I can do is evaluate.