Expansion thread 2022

[bearcatbret]

PAC TV deal sometime mid-January to mid-February. Expansion in March or April. This does not paint roses for the PAC. Pac-12 Hotline mailbag: As 2023 looms, conference faces existential crisis (tucson.com)

[bearcatbret]

It must be a slow news cycle because they are talking Big 10 expansion again. At the end of this article, there is a link for the 15 schools to watch. ESPN’s Paul Finebaum expects Big Ten to continue expansion – see who he thinks will join the league (yahoo.com)

[bearcatbret]

Based on that, they just need to take the biggest paycheck from the media compnaies and be done with it. They aren't going to get ratings in that conference reagrdless of where they put their games, so maximize the return.

True for the short-term but for the long-term it will kill the conference because if the TV contracts realize that there are no eyes on their platform, they will not reinvest. Utah and Washington (maybe Oregon) are about the only value in the PAC at this time. The media tried hard to build up the PAC this year but did not succeed. It is ironic that Utah was an expansion team. Today, nobody cares about the research or academic ratings of a college. So, the Stanford's of the world will be irrelevant in the sports world.

[Lobot]

Between geography and time differential how many people east of the Rockies give a hoot about when, where, or even why, PAC12 games are aired (or, for that matter, even played)?

Based on that, they just need to take the biggest paycheck from the media compnaies and be done with it. They aren't going to get ratings in that conference reagrdless of where they put their games, so maximize the return.

[richard k.]

Between geography and time differential how many people east of the Rockies give a hoot about when, where, or even why, PAC12 games are aired (or, for that matter, even played)?

[coach]

Here's a piece by Stuart Mandel of theathletic.com ($) that lays out pros and cons of a possible move by George Kliavkoff to move the majority of their sports programming to Amazon. Mandel does not make any predictions as to how this ends up for the P12, but he does reference a prediction by John Ourand of the Sports Business Journal (Amazon + a few primetime games on CBS).

Mandel: Pros and cons of a Pac-12 media rights deal almost exclusively with Amazon - The Athletic

It will take an already isolated group and move them even farther off the grid.

[red_n_black_attack]

Nothing new with the PAC but they expect something early in January. Pac-12 media rights: What’s next for the conference after UCLA’s (official) departure – Orange County Register (ocregister.com)

OMG Kliavkoff just said the Big 12 is the floor and Big Ten is the ceiling, so they will start the bidding war in the low $30 million a year for each school. Ummmm, that ain't happening!

[swilsonsp4]

Here's a piece by Stuart Mandel of theathletic.com ($) that lays out pros and cons of a possible move by George Kliavkoff to move the majority of their sports programming to Amazon. Mandel does not make any predictions as to how this ends up for the P12, but he does reference a prediction by John Ourand of the Sports Business Journal (Amazon + a few primetime games on CBS).

Mandel: Pros and cons of a Pac-12 media rights deal almost exclusively with Amazon - The Athletic

[bearcatbret]

PAC 12 players transferring to USC. I guess that the move to the Big 10 by USC may be interesting to some players. Pac-12 receiving leader Dorian Singer transfers to USC (msn.com)

[bearcatbret]

Why Fresno may get invited to the Pac 12. Because UCLA and USC cannot vote against it. Fresno State makes Pac-12 statement with LA Bowl blowout | The Fresno Bee

[bearcatbret]

Nothing new with the PAC but they expect something early in January. Pac-12 media rights: What’s next for the conference after UCLA’s (official) departure – Orange County Register (ocregister.com)

[bearcatbret]

Here is an article about the regents' decision. It appears that UCLA will be required to supplement the University of California at Berkley's athletic fund.
California Regents vote to affirm UCLA’s move to Big Ten | The Sacramento Bee (sacbee.com)

[swilsonsp4]

UCLA ->BIG10 official. Now we will see if the rest of the PAC starts making moves now

I doubt that anything major happens within the P12 community until after the media proposals are known.

[Chewbacca2099]

UCLA ->BIG10 official. Now we will see if the rest of the PAC starts making moves now

[red_n_black_attack]

When UCLA leaves and when the PAC gets a streaming rights deal that will provide next to zero viewers, then they will bail. I just do not see any of the remaining PAC teams adding value to the Big 10. I think that the Big 10 will look towards the ACC. Remember that if enough members of the ACC vote to dissolve, they can. Some teams to the SEC some to the BIG. I think that the Big 12 is safe for now because there are no brand names with big markets.

I think if UCLA leaves, the floodgates might open for the schools to get out of the PAC12

Agreed, the Big 12 will be safe, and some of those ACC schools not going to SEC or Big Ten might still be better off voting to dissolve and latch onto the Big 12. Ig Yormark has his pick, I can see him eventually going up to 20 teams to stay with SEC and Big Ten.

Top Pac10 targets
Oregon
Washington
Utah
Meh, none of the rest excite me

Top ACC targets (not likely to go to SEC or B!G)
Loserville
Pitt
Virginia Tech
Wake or NC State (one to SEC, but not both)

Depending on who is left, the other could vary from any of these schools: Cal, Colorado, or Georgia Tech. However, I don't see the ACC taking action to dissolve until around 2031 or 2032, which may be too late for some of the ACC teams to latch onto Big 12.

My scenario:
SEC and B!G both add only two teams to go to 18 or 20 (both probably thinking they can pluck Big 12 teams that prove themselves over the next few years, so no one feels safe outside those two conferences)

SEC gets Fla St, Miami, and Clemson with the 4th being Wake or NC State
Big Ten gets North Carolina, Boston College, and Virginia with 4th being Cuse or Duke. Duke only if North Carolina wants package deal to keep basketball rivalry.