Bubble Watch / Bracketology

[sedz]

Kansas St dropped to 82 after getting demolished on their home floor by Oklahoma. That game will be Q3 as it stands now.

TCU remains at 30 after their home win over Texas Tech. So we are still clinging to two Q1 wins.

[Carthage World]

Kansas St dropped to 82 after getting demolished on their home floor by Oklahoma. That game will be Q3 as it stands now.

TCU remains at 30 after their home win over Texas Tech. So we are still clinging to two Q1 wins.

So we're looking at 7 Q1 games (with the possibility of @UCF dropping to Q2) and 4 Q3 over the remainder of the schedule.

Any insights on the minimum # of quality wins you think we need to obtain to feel semi-safe regarding our NCAA chances?

[GoBearcats31]

So we're looking at 7 Q1 games (with the possibility of @UCF dropping to Q2) and 4 Q3 over the remainder of the schedule.

Any insights on the minimum # of quality wins you think we need to obtain to feel semi-safe regarding our NCAA chances?

No insight, just a personal opinion. But I'd say we want at least 4 more quality wins.

UC is 3-4 in the conference. Let's say, hypothetically they go 2-0 versus WVU and beat Oklahoma State and Kansas State. That is 7 league wins and you avoided "bad" losses to WVU and OSU. To finish 9-9, that would mean 2-5 in the other games which could net out at 4-10 against Q1 opponents (or potentially worse if a TCU dropped out), and I am unsure if that is the best look if they were squarely on the bubble.

Then factor in a decent likelihood that they do not, in fact, go 4-0 versus WVU (home and away), OSU, and Kansas State, and you'd really hope to pick up a couple more solid wins. Though I would guess that splitting West Virginia with one extra high level win might actually rate better than sweeping WVU with one less good win. Seems like the Committee often puts more stock into quality wins compared to bad losses.

But if they go at worst 9-9 in the Big 12 with at least one win in the Big 12 Tournament--in my opinion--that sounds like enough (and surely that would include at least 4 good wins). But obviously everything is going to change daily.

[GoBearcats31]

For what it is worth (and we do not need to repeat every time that he is not historically a great bracketologist), in his daily/semi-daily update, Joe Lunardi still has UC as the third team out. In other words, it would be in UC's best interest to win tonight on the road against a 7-13 opponent.

[sedz]

So we're looking at 7 Q1 games (with the possibility of @UCF dropping to Q2) and 4 Q3 over the remainder of the schedule.

Any insights on the minimum # of quality wins you think we need to obtain to feel semi-safe regarding our NCAA chances?

My general rule of thumb based on bubble profiles from the last half decade is that a .500 Q1/2 record with 2 bad losses puts a team right above the cut line. If you have no bad losses, you can afford to be a couple games under .500 in Q1/2. Of course there are exceptions, but it's a good quick reference point.

We're 3-6 right now with no bad losses, putting us just below the cut line as most bracketologists have us. We've got 7 quality games left and 4 potential bad losses with current NET rankings. So if we manage to sweep the Q3 games, we'd need to go 3-4 in the others to finish two games under .500 at 6-10 in Q1/2. That means a 7-4 record the rest of the way and a 10-8 conference finish.

I think the committee will have a tough time with the Big12 because so many games will be in Q1 and very few in Q2 (in fact all 7 remaining of our remaining quality games are Q1 right now). We will have 14 Q1 games and only two Q2 games. I'd hope that compares favorably to a team that racks up a bunch of Q2 wins, like Colorado, St Johns, or Memphis who have 5 Q2 wins each.

[sedz]

Warren Nolan's site is great for looking at resumes. The "Nitty Gritty" table lists quadrant records, and if you click the little paper icon by each team name it will bring up a team sheet that looks just like what the committee uses.

https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-nitty

[GoBearcats31]

Warren Nolan's site is great for looking at resumes. The "Nitty Gritty" table lists quadrant records, and if you click the little paper icon by each team name it will bring up a team sheet that looks just like what the committee uses.

https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/net-nitty

Great resource, thanks for posting

Also...yikes! Howard has a 272 NET. That could have crushed UC's resume right there, had they not pulled it out.

[Cyclone792]

No insight, just a personal opinion. But I'd say we want at least 4 more quality wins.

UC is 3-4 in the conference. Let's say, hypothetically they go 2-0 versus WVU and beat Oklahoma State and Kansas State. That is 7 league wins and you avoided "bad" losses to WVU and OSU. To finish 9-9, that would mean 2-5 in the other games which could net out at 4-10 against Q1 opponents (or potentially worse if a TCU dropped out), and I am unsure if that is the best look if they were squarely on the bubble.

Then factor in a decent likelihood that they do not, in fact, go 4-0 versus WVU (home and away), OSU, and Kansas State, and you'd really hope to pick up a couple more solid wins. Though I would guess that splitting West Virginia with one extra high level win might actually rate better than sweeping WVU with one less good win. Seems like the Committee often puts more stock into quality wins compared to bad losses.

But if they go at worst 9-9 in the Big 12 with at least one win in the Big 12 Tournament--in my opinion--that sounds like enough (and surely that would include at least 4 good wins). But obviously everything is going to change daily.

I agree with your analysis.

My initial gut is 4-0 in the Q3 games and 2-5 in the likely Q1 games + one Big 12 tournament game win would be bare minimum. Certainly no guarantee, but it'd put us in the running for a bid. Going 3-4 or better in the remaining Q1 games would be much more reassuring, assuming we take care of business in the Q3 games. And taking care of business in those Q3 games is no easy feat either. Tonight is a good example; I expect a really, really tough game. Hopefully we can pull out the W.

Our non-conference schedule isn't doing us any favors. We had two quality opponents and lost both games. Our best wins are Eastern Washington and Georgia Tech. I was happy to see Georgia Tech knock off UNC last night, but a little disappointed that they only moved up 6 spots in the NET today. There's very limited help in our non-conference schedule. If Eastern Washington can run the table in the Big Sky, then maybe they sneak into a Q2 win and that'd be a small boost. Georgia Tech certainly has the biggest potential to help, but they need to start winning some more ACC games.

[sedz]

... Our best wins are Eastern Washington and Georgia Tech. I was happy to see Georgia Tech knock off UNC last night, but a little disappointed that they only moved up 6 spots in the NET today. There's very limited help in our non-conference schedule. If Eastern Washington can run the table in the Big Sky, then maybe they sneak into a Q2 win and that'd be a small boost. Georgia Tech certainly has the biggest potential to help, but they need to start winning some more ACC games.

Torvik's Teamcast allows you to simulate the remainder of a schedule to predict NET ranking and seeding. If Eastern Washington wins out, it projects a NET ranking of 90 for them, unfortunately still in Q3 territory. Georgia Tech would only move up to 85 if they win out, since their remaining schedule is pretty weak. So I don't think we're getting any non-con favors.

The tool also lets you see the tourney odds impact of any single game (this is more for fun and not necessarily accurate). It thinks we have an 82% chance of making the field right now, which I think is a little optimistic. If we had lost to Howard our odds would be 41%. Without that BYU win our odds would be only 17%. Losing tonight would drop us to 67%.

https://barttorvik.com/teamcast.php?...nati&year=2024

[BearKatz]

Prior to the UCF, we had (12) games remaining. I figured to be on the safe side, we would need to finish 9-3 in the regular season. Also, I think (3) of those wins need to come against Top 25 Teams.

We still have (2) games against #4 Houston, (1) against #12 Iowa State, (1) against #15 Texas Tech, (1) against #23 Oklahoma, and (1) against #25 TCU.

If we can pull out (3) wins, I would think we're pretty much a lock. Also would need a few wins in the Big 12 Tourney!

[GoBearcats31]

Here is the recipe for staying in the NCAA Tournament picture:

Home wins over: Iowa State (#10 NET), Kansas State (#81), West Virginia (#143), Oklahoma State (#144)

At least two wins from: home and away versus Houston (#1), at Oklahoma (#27), at Texas Tech (#29), at TCU (#30), at UCF (#72)


FWIW, UC dropped only one spot in the NET after last night's loss and WVU isn't far off from a Q2 L instead of a Q3 as it stands now.

[hipal88]

I think maybe we pull off the 2 wins on the road. I just have a hard time believing we run the slate at home. The question that is looming is do we accept an NIT bid...again. I am inclined to say no. Don't really know what it gets us. And that is not acceptable. Everyone in the program needs to get that drilled into their heads. I am tired of the excuses...he's building, new conf, toughest conf, NIL, whatever. I really don't see how next year will be any better so something needs to change.

[Lobot]

I think maybe we pull off the 2 wins on the road. I just have a hard time believing we run the slate at home. The question that is looming is do we accept an NIT bid...again. I am inclined to say no. Don't really know what it gets us. And that is not acceptable. Everyone in the program needs to get that drilled into their heads. I am tired of the excuses...he's building, new conf, toughest conf, NIL, whatever. I really don't see how next year will be any better so something needs to change.

One thing to consider there is that the NIT finals has moved to Indy for this season and has entirely different invitational and game rules now.

https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball...rimental-rules

[Carthage World]

Here is the recipe for staying in the NCAA Tournament picture:

Home wins over: Iowa State (#10 NET), Kansas State (#81), West Virginia (#143), Oklahoma State (#144)

At least two wins from: home and away versus Houston (#1), at Oklahoma (#27), at Texas Tech (#29), at TCU (#30), at UCF (#72)


FWIW, UC dropped only one spot in the NET after last night's loss and WVU isn't far off from a Q2 L instead of a Q3 as it stands now.

I think we're more likely to go 4-1 at home than 2-5 on the road but I'm certainly less confident in out ability to hit the magic # of 9 conference wins than I was yesterday.

[Carthage World]

One thing to consider there is that the NIT finals has moved to Indy for this season and has entirely different invitational and game rules now.

https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball...rimental-rules

Didn't know about this. Thanks for sharing.

Intentionally targeting more high major programs and allowing them to host their first game will certainly make the tournament more profitable.