Bubble Watch / Bracketology

[GoBearcats31]

Lunardi hasn't updated since Friday, before the Texas Tech game. It will be updated tomorrow.

But he tweets updates most days -- see link above (page 3) + the Big 12 breakdown was in another tweet

[bfcain1]

But he tweets updates most days -- see link above (page 3) + the Big 12 breakdown was in another tweet

I didn't know that, thanks !

[red_n_black_attack]

The K St victory over Kansas last night should improve their Net ranking. It hasn't updated yet

[sedz]

Kansas St moved up 4 spots to 79 in the NET rankings, which is good for us since they are closer to 75. But the huge Q1 win they picked up arguably makes their resume better than ours. They are now 6-7 in Q1/Q2 games with one bad loss (at OK St who is just below the Q2 cutoff at 139). So a mixed bag there.

Virginia demolished Miami at home to pick up another Q2 win, at least for now. Miami got beat so bad they fell 10 spots all the way to 72. But Virginia is on a roll and is looking like a clear ACC contender. Their next 7 games will all be Q1/Q2.

[sedz]

In Monday night's bracketmatrix update we are the second team out, just below Colorado and above Richmond. The last four in are Washington St, Seton Hall, Virginia, and Providence. All of those teams have at least 5 quality wins (Washington St has 7), while we are sitting on just 4. And as noted above Kansas St will be joining the mix after picking up their 6th quality win. It's a crowded bubble right now with plenty of games left.

[GoBearcats31]

USA Today has UC as a 10 seed https://www.usatoday.com/story/sport...n/72469954007/

Lundari and Palm -- America's favorite bracketologists -- both have UC as second team out
https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/st...ld-predictions
https://www.cbssports.com/college-ba.../bracketology/

Notable about Palm's CBS bracket, is they list the NET ratings for the Last 4 In and First 4 Out -- and you can see just how important the NET is (not really)

Last 4 In: Michigan State (22), New Mexico (18), Texas A&M (50), Nevada (56)
First 4 Out: Oregon (57), Cincinnati (30), Seton Hall (66), Wake Forest (41)

[red_n_black_attack]

USA Today has UC as a 10 seed https://www.usatoday.com/story/sport...n/72469954007/

Lundari and Palm -- America's favorite bracketologists -- both have UC as second team out
https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/st...ld-predictions
https://www.cbssports.com/college-ba.../bracketology/

Notable about Palm's CBS bracket, is they list the NET ratings for the Last 4 In and First 4 Out -- and you can see just how important the NET is (not really)

Last 4 In: Michigan State (22), New Mexico (18), Texas A&M (50), Nevada (56)
First 4 Out: Oregon (57), Cincinnati (30), Seton Hall (66), Wake Forest (41)

Do you think any of the NET relevance for last four in/out has more to do with too many teams from the Big 12 qualify per the NET?

[sedz]

Do you think any of the NET relevance for last four in/out has more to do with too many teams from the Big 12 qualify per the NET?

I don't think that makes a difference at all. Two years ago, there were three teams seeded 11 or 12 from the Big Ten, and they all had at least 13 losses. Conference affiliation doesn't really matter, it's all about what your team sheet looks like. Those teams all had at least 5 Q1 wins.

The old BigEast once had 11 teams in.

[sedz]

With Tuesday's bracketmatrix update we're back in the field as the last team in, leaping over Providence and Colorado who each lost twice last week.

Lots of bubble action tonight, as Colorado, Nevada, Wake Forest, Butler, and St Johns are all in action, plus a bunch of teams in the 8-9 seed range that could fall to the bubble with a couple losses.

[sedz]

Nevada picked up a huge Q1 road win last night at Utah St. The Mountain West continues to beat each other up, with 6 teams now in the NET top 50, including 4 in the top 30.

Wake Forest won at Georgia Tech by 29. They are still looking for their first Q1 win but are piling up Q2 wins, now with 6.

St Johns and New Mexico each avoided bad losses, and Butler wasn't able to take down UConn. Clemson's big win at UNC keeps them far above the bubble.

Perhaps the biggest loss of the night was Michigan St going down at Minnesota. The Spartans are now just 4-9 in Q1/2 games.

Ole Miss came up just short after trimming a 17 pt second half deficit to just 2 at South Carolina. The Rebels are 4-5 in Q1/2 games so they can't get too comfortable.

[sedz]

Tonight's biggest bubble game might be Providence, who is looking to end a two game losing streak and add a fourth Q1 win at home against Creighton. Seton Hall, Texas A&M, Mississippi St, Villanova, Indiana St, and Gonzaga are also in action.

[GoBearcats31]

Tonight's biggest bubble game might be Providence, who is looking to end a two game losing streak and add a fourth Q1 win at home against Creighton. Seton Hall, Texas A&M, Mississippi St, Villanova, Indiana St, and Gonzaga are also in action.

Pretty much all these teams won -- the exceptions being Creighton (who lost to Providence -- both on this list) and Villanova who lost to Xavier (who is also quite bubbly, so kind of cancels itself out in a way). So if anyone was looking for these bubble teams to take on some tough losses, last night wasn't really that night.

[sedz]

Pretty much all these teams won -- the exceptions being Creighton (who lost to Providence -- both on this list) and Villanova who lost to Xavier (who is also quite bubbly, so kind of cancels itself out in a way). So if anyone was looking for these bubble teams to take on some tough losses, last night wasn't really that night.

Yep, the bubble got a little stronger last night. Providence picked up a Q1 win. Seton Hall, Texas A&M, Mississippi St, Indiana St, and Gonzaga avoided bad losses.

Creighton was only on the list as a Q1 opponent for Providence, they aren't near the bubble.

Nebraska lost at Northwestern, which certainly isn't a bad loss but they are now 6-8 in quality games and just 1-7 in true road games. They've got four potential Q3 home landmines and three winnable Q1/2 road games left. They'll be feeling bubbly if they go any worse than 5-2, despite owning huge wins over Purdue and Wisconsin.

[GoBearcats31]

Good catch sedz re: Creighton

Interestingly, Xavier beat Villanova and actually dropped from 48 to 50 in the NET. X will be an interesting team to track on the bubble. And they are probably better situated than Villanova, who is 5-7 in the Big East after starting 4-1 (and two of those early wins were DePaul).

[sedz]

Good catch sedz re: Creighton

Interestingly, Xavier beat Villanova and actually dropped from 48 to 50 in the NET. X will be an interesting team to track on the bubble. And they are probably better situated than Villanova, who is 5-7 in the Big East after starting 4-1 (and two of those early wins were DePaul).

Agreed, Villanova is in a tough spot now. They have three Q3 losses, so they're going to have to improve their 3-6 Q1 record. A win last night would have put them at 4-5 in Q1 and 7-7 in Q1/Q2. Missed opportunity and now their backs are against the wall. Xavier has two Q3 losses and just a 2-7 Q1 record. These are both fringe bubble teams, Villanova was only in 5 of 94 brackets going into last night, and Xavier was only in 1.