Bubble Watch / Bracketology

[GoBearcats31]

Maryland loses by 31 to Wisconsin.

The Terps came in at #72 in the NET and surely will drop outside the Top 75 -- which could have some bubble implications:
- Villanova home win would drop from Q2 to Q3
- Michigan State's wins will drop to Q2 road and Q3 home Ws
- Iowa went 0-2 versus Maryland, so those will drop to Q2 road and Q3 home losses
- OSU's win (last for Holtmann) will drop to a Q3 home win

[GoBearcats31]

St. John's up 9 versus Seton Hall -- seemed like SHU was probably in and SJU would be out with a loss. Needless to say, huge for Rick Pitino's squad if they can hold on. But Seton Hall shouldn't be sitting comfortably at all -- best case scenario: Dayton. Came into the game at #56 in KenPom and 64 in the NET. They'd have to be one of the lower NET teams to get in if they fall today and still dance.

Pitt up 15 on Wake. Pitt could slide into the field (they began in Dayton last year, could be there this year). Wake is done with an L.

St. John's wins big

Wake made it interesting but going to lose. They entered the day 36 in the NET and top 25 in Ken Pom -- and they will likely be one of the higher rated teams to miss the NCAA Tournament.

[sedz]

Maryland loses by 31 to Wisconsin.

The Terps came in at #72 in the NET and surely will drop outside the Top 75 -- which could have some bubble implications:
- Villanova home win would drop from Q2 to Q3
- Michigan State's wins will drop to Q2 road and Q3 home Ws
- Iowa went 0-2 versus Maryland, so those will drop to Q2 road and Q3 home losses
- OSU's win (last for Holtmann) will drop to a Q3 home win

Puts all those games back to what they were a couple days ago. Maryland entered the week at #77, but moved into the top 75 after beating Rutgers by 14 yesterday.

[GoBearcats31]

Yes, Joe Lunardi isn’t a great bracketologist …

But he just moved UC to 8th out, behind Providence (up 3 at half to very good Creighton) and Iowa (on the brink of losing to OSU who is similarly situated to UC).

Texas A&M last team in is currently up against a solid Ole Miss.

[sedz]

Big W for Providence, their 6th Q1 win.

[swilsonsp4]

Duquesne upset UD. There will be a stolen bid, as the Flyers were the only team close to consideration.

[longtimefan]

Ridiculous low percentage passes.

[GoBearcats31]

RIP this thread -- it was a good run

[bearcatbret]

MSU has nearly the same record as UC but they also have some bad losses. However, MSU will get in and UC will not.

[GoBearcats31]

MSU has nearly the same record as UC but they also have some bad losses. However, MSU will get in and UC will not.

Michigan State (assuming you do not mean Mississippi State) does not have an impressive resume, but the metrics are strong.

MSU 24 NET, UC 38 as of today / Ken Pom 19 vs. 39

Some key differences:
- MSU 9-13 in Quads 1/2, while UC is 7-12
- MSU 10-0 in Quads 3/4, while UC is 13-2 (two Quad 3 losses plus five more Quad 4 games)
- Significantly better non-conference strength of schedule, including a 24-point win over Baylor (neutral) which seems to be a big factor in their metrics

I would have been on this train more if UC had won last night, but I can see the separation a bit better today. But I bet there are several other teams ahead of UC in the committee's eyes with even flimsier resumes.

UC looks/feels like a tournament team and can compete with the best. But they cost themselves with a few blown games.

[sedz]

How the committee treats top 30 teams with lackluster results (New Mexico, Colorado, Indiana St) against sub 50 teams with lots of quality wins (Providence, Seton Hall, Kansas St) will be a good test for how much efficiency metrics matter. In my opinion, results should be much more important. Wins and losses have to matter, not just aggregate scores over the whole season. Obviously I like to use metrics as a tool to scout and evaluate teams, but postseason qualification should be based almost exclusively on results imo.

I don't know how anyone can evaluate Texas A&M. They have 12 quality wins (more than Duke, Alabama, and Auburn) but 5 bad losses (same as DePaul). Their NET ranking is 46, middle of the pack for bubble teams. What do you do with that?

Michigan St is in good shape even without great metrics. They have 9 quality wins and no bad losses.

[Lobot]

Happy Selection Sunday. I think we've all come to the conclusion that UC is not getting in. I also think we understand that the NET ranking are not the only thing in play here. If they were, we'd be in. When you look at the ranking there are two teams in our own conference (OU, TCU) that are presumed in but behind us in the NET. We moved up to 37 after yesterdays action. Leaving out a team at 37 would be a a new record for the committee. I haven't sat down and really analyzed what the commitee's other options are vs. UC but we might sneak into the field at the last minute here.

https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basket...l-net-rankings

[Carthage World]

Happy Selection Sunday. I think we've all come to the conclusion that UC is not getting in. I also think we understand that the NET ranking are not the only thing in play here. If they were, we'd be in. When you look at the ranking there are two teams in our own conference (OU, TCU) that are presumed in but behind us in the NET. We moved up to 37 after yesterdays action. Leaving out a team at 37 would be a a new record for the committee. I haven't sat down and really analyzed what the commitee's other options are vs. UC but we might sneak into the field at the last minute here.

https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basket...l-net-rankings

The bubble shrank significantly over the past few days with the slew of upsets we've seen in the conference tournaments.

I wouldn't be surprised if 2-3 teams with higher NET rankings than UC were left out.

[leeraymond]

If I am not wrong, I believe that all of the Power 6 basketball teams that were seeded number 1 going into their conference tournaments all lost except UCONN. Does that make UCONN the favorite going into the NCAAs? Also, check out what Temple is doing in the American. This has been a very weird Post-Season so far. It makes me think that there are going to be a slew of outcomes that nobody is going to see coming in the NCAAs. I am assuming that UC is NIT bound. Is that a good assumption? Any predictions on UC's seeding possibilities?

[sedz]

Indiana St out with a top 30 NET. Oklahoma and Providence out with 9 quality wins and no bad losses. St Johns out with 10 quality wins and one bad loss. Virginia the last team in with 10 quality wins and no bad losses.

We were nowhere close to the bubble after all those bid steals.