Bubble Watch / Bracketology

[GoBearcats31]

I think we're more likely to go 4-1 at home than 2-5 on the road but I'm certainly less confident in out ability to hit the magic # of 9 conference wins than I was yesterday.

They have 5 at home, 5 on the road -- though I grouped it as the four most winnable home games, and the six others (basically, I have more confidence in them upsetting Iowa State at home than I do Houston).

[GoBearcats31]

Here is a new bracket from one of the more accurate bracket people out there -- he has UC as the last team in (a First Four game in Dayton)
https://bracketville.wordpress.com/bracketology/

Saw a couple others on Twitter that showed UC as a 10 seed. I imagine in the next ESPN/Lunardi update, UC will be in the "first four out" category.


We went from numerous people in the West Virginia game thread declaring season over to UC being VERY much still in the thick of things, with numerous opportunities to build on their resume. Next two games (Houston, Iowa State at home) are Q1 games and will stay that way barring either team absolutely collapsing. Game after is UCF who, if they stay in the top 75 in the NET (67 today), that is a Q1 road game.

[GoBearcats31]

Remaining games by NET/quads (as of today)

Houston #1 -- Quad 1
Iowa State #11 -- Quad 1
at UCF #67 -- Quad 1
Oklahoma State #139 -- Quad 3
at TCU #36 -- Quad 1
at Houston #1 -- Quad 1
Kansas State #83 -- Quad 3
at Oklahoma #32 -- Quad 1
West Virginia #144 -- Quad 3

• Quadrant 1: Home 1-30, Neutral 1-50, Away 1-75
• Quadrant 2: Home 31-75, Neutral 51-100, Away 76-135
• Quadrant 3: Home 76-160, Neutral 101-200, Away 135-240
• Quadrant 4: Home 161-353, Neutral 201-353, Away 241-353

UCF road game is Q1 as long as they stay above 76 (UCF home win stays Q2 as long as UCF is within the top 75)
Kansas State needs to get inside the top 75 for this to improve from Q3 to Q2
Recent loss to WVU improves to Q2 if WVU can climb to 135
TCU home win will remain Q2 unless TCU can get into top 30

[sedz]

The only real bubble game tonight is Virginia with a chance to add a quality win against Miami. UVA is coming off a big Q1 win at Clemson as part of a 6 game winning streak.

Kansas St could move back into the top 75 if they can knock of Kansas.

[D.A.H.]

Here is a new bracket from one of the more accurate bracket people out there -- he has UC as the last team in (a First Four game in Dayton)
https://bracketville.wordpress.com/bracketology/

Saw a couple others on Twitter that showed UC as a 10 seed. I imagine in the next ESPN/Lunardi update, UC will be in the "first four out" category.


We went from numerous people in the West Virginia game thread declaring season over to UC being VERY much still in the thick of things, with numerous opportunities to build on their resume. Next two games (Houston, Iowa State at home) are Q1 games and will stay that way barring either team absolutely collapsing. Game after is UCF who, if they stay in the top 75 in the NET (67 today), that is a Q1 road game.

the wvu loss leaves uc with a very thin margin of error, going forward. it didn't kill the season, but it sure as **** made the hill a fair amount higher to climb. it was a bad loss, esp. in blowing a late lead as they did.

[sedz]

We've had a thin margin of error since the end of non-conference play since we didn't pick up any quality wins. WVU may end up being a bad loss, but it won't be any different from the bad losses on most other bubble team's resumes. It could just as easily end up being a Q2 game though.

When it comes down to it, every game on the schedule is about equal in importance. Getting good wins and avoiding bad losses are both important. It's only our expectations that change. If we can get to 9-9 in the league, I think we'll be in really good shape and it doesn't really matter how we get there.

[Bearcat9796]

I'd like to think the WVU loss will have nothing to do with whether or not we get in
it's supposed to be, "who'd ya beat?"
we can have enough good wins at 8 and 10 possibly, but I feel like 9 and 9 is a lock...
I do know this, as frustrating as they can be at times , this season is a lot of fun

[Oldtimer_UC_fan]

I'd like to think the WVU loss will have nothing to do with whether or not we get in
it's supposed to be, "who'd ya beat?"
we can have enough good wins at 8 and 10 possibly, but I feel like 9 and 9 is a lock...
I do know this, as frustrating as they can be at times , this season is a lot of fun

A lock? Hardly. With 2 games with Houston, and other top 25 teams, we need to show a lot more consistency to get there.

[Bearcat9796]

A lock? Hardly. With 2 games with Houston, and other top 25 teams, we need to show a lot more consistency to get there.

I meant if we get there, we're in

[swilsonsp4]

Only once since the B12 had ten members, starting with the 2011-12 season, has a team with a 9-9 record failed to make the field. In 2013, Baylor won the NIT after posting a 9-9 record. Their OOC record was not good.

Only one other time did the B12 not have a team with a losing conference record in the field. In 2020-21, ISU, KSU & TCU were really bad, which allowed the other seven teams to finish no worse than 9-8. (There were some Covid-19 cancellations that year.)

[GoBearcats31]

Joe Lunardi has UC as his second team out https://twitter.com/ESPNLunardi/stat...09073914306786

As sedz noted above, UVA is a team to watch tonight. They are "last four in."

Lunardi's current Big 12 projections:
1 Houston
2 Kansas
4 Baylor
4 Iowa State
5 BYU
6 Oklahoma
7 Texas
7 Texas Tech
9 TCU
UC First Four Out
Kansas State "considered"

[swilsonsp4]

Joe Lunardi has UC as his second team out https://twitter.com/ESPNLunardi/stat...09073914306786

As sedz noted above, UVA is a team to watch tonight. They are "last four in."

Lunardi's current Big 12 projections:
1 Houston
2 Kansas
4 Baylor
4 Iowa State
5 BYU
6 Oklahoma
7 Texas
7 Texas Tech
9 TCU
UC First Four Out
Kansas State "considered"

Lunardi is fraudulent. If BYU continue at their current pace, there would be howling if the committee dropped them to a 5 seed. The Cougars have been a Top 10 team in both the KenPom and NET all season (presently #9 & #7, respectively).

K-State are being "considered" for what? Their metrics aren't close to good enough. No team with a #83 NET is being considered for anything but the NIT.

He must sit there and think to himself, "I can't believe that K-State's 22 results constitute their true strength. Why, the Wildcats won 26 games last season. They made that nice run in The Dance. They can do it again!"

[Lobot]

I'm going to try and get to KC belatedly. I would suggest others take a shot and show out at the Big 12 Tourney if you can make it. The all session tix are up there in price but single session tickets haven't gone on sale yet. UCATS has a travel package for those in Cincy.

[sedz]

Lunardi is fraudulent. If BYU continue at their current pace, there would be howling if the committee dropped them to a 5 seed. The Cougars have been a Top 10 team in both the KenPom and NET all season (presently #9 & #7, respectively).

K-State are being "considered" for what? Their metrics aren't close to good enough. No team with a #83 NET is being considered for anything but the NIT.

He must sit there and think to himself, "I can't believe that K-State's 22 results constitute their true strength. Why, the Wildcats won 26 games last season. They made that nice run in The Dance. They can do it again!"

BYU is just 3-5 in Q1 games. Their resume does not justify a top 4 seed right now.
Kansas St is 5-7 in Q1/2 games with one bad loss, which isn't much worse than other bubble teams.
Those teams are ranked appropriately. Lunardi isn't even ranking them different than anyone else. In the average of 85 brackets on bracketmatrix, BYU is a 5 seed and Kansas State is the 8th team out.

A couple years ago Rutgers made the tournament with a NET of 80. NET rankings are just a tool to sort a team's schedule into quadrants. Quadrant records are the most important part of a resume, rankings don't matter much.

[bfcain1]

Lunardi hasn't updated since Friday, before the Texas Tech game. It will be updated tomorrow.