Bubble Watch / Bracketology

[Oldtimer_UC_fan]

You can bet that Kentucky will be in. Regardless of what they do.

[sedz]

You can bet that Kentucky will be in. Regardless of what they do.

That's what everyone said in 2013.

[sedz]

Villanova and Seton Hall faced off in a bubble game today. Villanova picked up the Q2 win and Seton Hall gets a Q1 loss. Seton Hall is now Q1 4-5, Q2 1-2, and 2 bad losses. Villanova improves to Q1 3-6, Q2 4-2, and 3 bad losses. The Big East is loaded with bubble teams, as those two are joined by Providence, St Johns, and Butler (and maybe Xavier). If they continue to beat each other and lose to the three teams at the top, they might all miss out.

[GoBearcats31]

Villanova and Seton Hall faced off in a bubble game today. Villanova picked up the Q2 win and Seton Hall gets a Q1 loss. Seton Hall is now Q1 4-5, Q2 1-2, and 2 bad losses. Villanova improves to Q1 3-6, Q2 4-2, and 3 bad losses. The Big East is loaded with bubble teams, as those two are joined by Providence, St Johns, and Butler (and maybe Xavier). If they continue to beat each other and lose to the three teams at the top, they might all miss out.

I feel like sometime in the last 4-6 years or so, there were a # of bubble teams in the Big East who did all beat each other but in the process started handing out Q1/Q2 wins -- which helped get a bunch of them in. And then they generally struggled in the NCAA Tournament b/c they weren't particularly good to begin with.


Massive week for the Bearcats with a Q1 home game versus Iowa State and a Q1 road game at UCF. In theory, they could probably afford to go 1-1 -- assuming they pick up some more good wins/avoid bad losses down the stretch -- but no reason they can't go 2-0. The Big 12 is tough and Iowa State is no doubt a good team, but UC is currently 2-3 in Big 12 home games and really needs to defend the home court on Tuesday. A top 10 win over the Cyclones tomorrow would be huge, whereas a loss puts you in a must win-ish game at UCF in what will sure to be a rock fight on Saturday.

[sedz]

One significant bubble game tonight, as Wake Forest travels to Duke looking for their first Q1 win, and just their second quality win away from home. They do have a couple of borderline home wins over #31 and #32, but this would be a flagship Q1 road win for their resume.

[GoBearcats31]

Our weekly Tuesday update from Joe Lunardi who, again, is not that great of a bracketologist but just roll it with it, folks https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/st...ld-predictions

Last Four Byes: Butler, Boise State, TCU, Nebraska
Last Four In: New Mexico, Ole Miss, Nevada, Utah
First Four Out: Wake Forest, Gonzaga, Seton Hall, Cincinnati
Next Four Out: St. John's, Colorado, Providence, Villanova

Butler hosts #4 Marquette tonight at 6:30
UC hosts #10 Iowa State tonight at 7:00 **massive for UC's resume**
St. John's plays at Providence tonight at 7:00 in a double bubble
Ole Miss plays at #22 Kentucky tonight at 9:00
New Mexico plays at Nevada tonight at 11:00 in a double bubble

Seton Hall hosts Xavier at 7:00 on Wednesday in a bubbly game

Gonzaga plays at LMU Thursday at 9:00
Colorado plays at UCLA Thursday at 9:00
Utah plays at USC Thursday at 11:00

[sedz]

It's worth noting that many brackets (Lunardi included) now have South Florida in the field as the American auto bid. That takes one at-large spot off the board. I think it's likely we'll have at least one bid steal this year. If not in the American then maybe from the A10, MVC, WAC, or WCC.

On Monday's bracketmatrix update we're the second to last team in the field, just above St Johns. The first four out are Seton Hall, Richmond, Gonzaga, and Providence.

Wake Forest lost last night and now sits at 0-4 in Q1. They still have 3-4 chances left.

Edit: Lunardi lists Richmond as an auto bid too. It's hard to tell if they should be considered an at-large or not since their average seed is 11.86. Lunardi is assuming two bid steals right now.

[GoBearcats31]

Beat UCF (would be a Q1 win) on Saturday, and we can continue the conversation here... But metrics remain pretty solid. Just need to stack some wins, as the schedule largely gets easier.

[sedz]

There was carnage across the bubble last night. Texas A&M and Indiana St both took bad losses. Virginia took a home Q2 loss. Butler and Nevada both had home Q1 losses just like us. Ole Miss and St Johns lost Q1 road games, extending a string of losses for both teams.

The big winner of the night was New Mexico who finally got a quality road win.

On balance I don't think we lost much ground.

[hipal88]

There was carnage across the bubble last night. Texas A&M and Indiana St both took bad losses. Virginia took a home Q2 loss. Butler and Nevada both had home Q1 losses just like us. Ole Miss and St Johns lost Q1 road games, extending a string of losses for both teams.

The big winner of the night was New Mexico who finally got a quality road win.

On balance I don't think we lost much ground.

highlighted the key words

[red_n_black_attack]

Beat UCF (would be a Q1 win) on Saturday, and we can continue the conversation here... But metrics remain pretty solid. Just need to stack some wins, as the schedule largely gets easier.

If we lose to UCF, I think we could be in for a world of hurt, and may even play ourseilves out of an NIT bid.

[GoBearcats31]

On balance I don't think we lost much ground.

Went from fourth out on Lundari's bracket to third out (on his post on X/Twitter), jumping Seton Hall...

[sedz]

The best bracketologist over the last 5 years (131sports) has us in exactly the same spot in today's update. We're still the second team out.

[GoBearcats31]

The best bracketologist over the last 5 years (131sports) has us in exactly the same spot in today's update. We're still the second team out.

Beat Central Florida

[sedz]

Went from fourth out on Lundari's bracket to third out (on his post on X/Twitter), jumping Seton Hall...

Haha, that makes no sense but I'll take it. Seton Hall hasn't played yet this week. They haven't recorded a quality win since January 16 though.