Bracketology 2025

[Carthage World]

Sedz, knowing everything we know now - starting with the Kansas State home game, what is the worst you think we could've done down the stretch and still have grabbed a First Four spot?

[sedz]

Sedz, knowing everything we know now - starting with the Kansas State home game, what is the worst you think we could've done down the stretch and still have grabbed a First Four spot?

I guess this is the key question!

Now that we know our lack of Q1 wins wasn't disqualifying (we ended up with 3, UNC and Xavier got in with 1), it was really our overall Q1/2 record and metrics that did us in. We were 10-15 in Q1/2 with no bad losses. X was 9-11 with no bad loss, UNC was 9-12 with one bad loss. So we were basically just one game behind those teams on the resume but with Kenpom ratings 12 spots below X and 22 lower than UNC. The other hole was road wins. We only won 5 Q1/2 games away from home, but X also only won 5 Q1/2 while UNC won 7.

After considering all of that, I think we were only 2 games behind Xavier. WAB shows that too. We finished -1.0 WAB. Xavier was 0.4. Flip two of our losses to wins and we pass Xavier (and Texas and San Diego St). So win the final two regular season games and we are probably playing in Dayton.

[sedz]

WAB ended up pretty accurate. It's something that can tell you in real time throughout the season how many wins you need against your schedule. No need to wait for bracketologists to tell you anything.

West Virginia was the only team 0.9 WAB or higher to miss the field. Xavier and Texas were the only teams under that mark to get in. Two more wins and we would have been above the line.

[sedz]

For evaluation:

	In	Out
Lunardi	SD St, Indiana, Xavier	Boise St, Texas, UNC
Palm	Indiana, SD St, Boise St	Xavier, Texas, UNC
Torvik	SD St, Texas, Xavier	Boise St, UNC, Indiana

Once again Torvik's real time algorithm outperforms the prominent "experts". Torvik only missed UNC. Lunardi missed UNC and Texas. Palm missed UNC, Texas, and Xavier. There's really no point in looking at them anymore. They're paid for interviews. Torvik even gives better insight on Twitter. He was defending UNC's resume multiple times in the last few days.

[bearcatbret]

Xavier Musketeers selected for First Four of 2025 March Madness I guess that I will cheer for Texas.

[fmirzamd]

I will go for X.