2025-26 Roster

[sedz]

Does the model specifically account for coaching? Not to nit pick, but maybe it would be more accurate to infer that any negative adjustment may be related to the observed discrepancy between predicted finish and actual finish last year.

Yes, that's what is happening. "Coaching adjustment" is my own choice of words.

[leeraymond]

Adding Baba Miller to the roster is a major plus. Both Miller and Thiam are very similar players. Here are stat lines per game for both from last year:

Miller: 11.3 pts., 7 reb, 48.6% (overall), 57.9% (from 2), 34% (from 3), 64% (FT),1.7 blocks, 1.9 TOs, and 2.4 fouls. Miller takes 2.88 foul shots a game, 21% of his rebounds are offensive, and 39% of his shots are 3s.

Thiam: 10.4 pts., 6.4 reb, 49.8% (overall), 57.9% (from 2), 29.1% (from 3), 66.7% (FT), 2.58 blocks, 1.3 TOs, and 2.76 fouls. Thiam takes 2.2 foul shots a game, 41.3% of his rebounds are offensive, and 28% of his shots are 3s.

Both of these guys are productive big men. Both guys can stretch the floor. Thiam is probably more of an inside player with his blocks and offensive rebounding. Both players are poor free throw shooters. Both players also shoot a high percentage from inside the arc. UC should be one of most inside dominate teams in college basketball next season. This should be the best UC front line since Clark and Washington.

There is no need to design only ally-oop shots with these guys. Miller needs to make these two guys a major part of the offense. James and Thomas have got to realize now that there is no need to try to win the game by themselves. They truly have some inside help on this team now.

Coach Miller cannot be afraid to bench James or Thomas for reckless, bone-headed, and selfish play. James and Thomas must keep the big men involved. Miller must play the other guards if Thomas and James want to hog the offense. I cannot think of many reasons why UC should not win next season, except for Coach Miller himself.

[DesertFog]

On Torvik we finished #44 overall, offense #89, defense #19.
We began last year #27 overall, offense #38, defense #27.
Going into next year #29 overall, offense #47, defense #17.

I think the model is giving us a negative coaching adjustment on offense based on how we performed last year.

Does the model specifically account for coaching? Not to nit pick, but maybe it would be more accurate to infer that any negative adjustment may be related to the observed discrepancy between predicted finish and actual finish last year.

[sedz]

And what did they finish last year?

On Torvik we finished #44 overall, offense #89, defense #19.
We began last year #27 overall, offense #38, defense #27.
Going into next year #29 overall, offense #47, defense #17.

I think the model is giving us a negative coaching adjustment on offense based on how we performed last year.

[GoBearcats31]

#29 overall. Offense #47, defense #17.

And what did they finish last year?

[Oldtimer_UC_fan]

#29 overall. Offense #47, defense #17.

I'm really thinking that we will need Abaev's offense.

[bearcatbret]

Call me crazy but if the team does not pass better, dribble less and quit me-balling, it does not matter.

[sedz]

I think the rotation will be closer to 8 than 10 in conference. Barring injury, Tillery will have to beat out Kriisa or choose between playing 5 or fewer minutes per game and red-shirting.

My belief is that fans generally overestimate the impact freshmen and transfers will have and underestimate returning players.

Assuming everyone stays healthy, the rotation in conference is probably along the lines of.

Kriisa, Day Day and Jizzle get virtually all of the guard minutes. Kriisa may be the weakest link because he's not a good defender. I'd argue Day Day is the best positioned for minutes as he is the best defender of the 3 and is a very good 3-point shooter.

Harris/Abaev share minutes at the 3, with the split slightly in Harris's favor (25/15) unless Abaev excels.

MIller/Thiam take the majority of the minutes at the 4/5, with Celestine/McKinley/Haynes/Dzellat fighting for the scraps. The backup for each game may be situational or one guy may stand out from the pack, take the majority of the backup minutes and keep the other 3 on the bench. It sounds like McKinley is the most well rounded, but he also hasn't done anything at the college level yet. Celestine/Haynes seem more like a situational rotation pair.

Right, I think 10 is the maximum rotation. 8 is probably ideal.

I don't know if it matters what position we assign to Harris. He should be on the other team's best guard when he's on the floor, whether that's the PG, SG, or SF. I think he could play alongside Abaev at times. They're both wings, which spot becomes irrelevant. Same with Celestine. He played mostly the 3 spot before Ojianwuna got hurt, and mostly the 4 afterward. His production was roughly the same, so he's capable of playing both positions. But just like with Kriisa and Tillery, I think best case is Abaev and McKinley are both good enough that Celestine can't earn minutes.

[sedz]

So what are the statistical models predicting for the upcoming season now that Baba Miller has been added to the fold?

#29 overall. Offense #47, defense #17.

[DesertFog]

So what are the statistical models predicting for the upcoming season now that Baba Miller has been added to the fold?

[zykarious]

Sounds like you agree that the rotation will be no more than 10 (in conference play). Who ends up forced out is an open question and one that may be settled by injury. I just think that we often overestimate how good freshmen will be, so a Tillery redshirt seems realistic at least. I hope he's better than Kriisa and a redshirt will sound like a dumb idea next winter.

I think the rotation will be closer to 8 than 10 in conference. Barring injury, Tillery will have to beat out Kriisa or choose between playing 5 or fewer minutes per game and red-shirting.

My belief is that fans generally overestimate the impact freshmen and transfers will have and underestimate returning players.

Assuming everyone stays healthy, the rotation in conference is probably along the lines of.

Kriisa, Day Day and Jizzle get virtually all of the guard minutes. Kriisa may be the weakest link because he's not a good defender. I'd argue Day Day is the best positioned for minutes as he is the best defender of the 3 and is a very good 3-point shooter.

Harris/Abaev share minutes at the 3, with the split slightly in Harris's favor (25/15) unless Abaev excels.

MIller/Thiam take the majority of the minutes at the 4/5, with Celestine/McKinley/Haynes/Dzellat fighting for the scraps. The backup for each game may be situational or one guy may stand out from the pack, take the majority of the backup minutes and keep the other 3 on the bench. It sounds like McKinley is the most well rounded, but he also hasn't done anything at the college level yet. Celestine/Haynes seem more like a situational rotation pair.

[sedz]

Some guys are getting pushed out of minutes no matter what, it's a good problem to have as long as you can manage the locker room - which Wes seems to do well. Plus not every transfer is a hit (even coming from another big 12 team) and some freshmen (even ones rated as high as Abaev) don't always earn minutes, especially in year one. So we can wait to see what guys go before we worry about quality players getting pushed out. It's safe to assume 2/3 guys won't perform to the level of current fan expectations.

There are three guys I'm confident will average 25 plus minutes per game, Day Day, Baba and Thiam. Competition could go a lot of different ways between everyone else.

Bana/Thiam at the 4/5 leave 30 minutes to split between 4 guys (Celestine, Haynes, McKinley and Dzellat), that means one, two or maybe even three of them don't get the minutes they are hoping for. Celestine isn't really a 3, he will struggle defensively, maybe that can be overcome with the right lineup. Haynes may just be a backup 5 and could be pushed out of that role by Baba or McKinley. There's little reason to believe he can play good enough defense to be a 4. McKinley may struggle and not earn any real minutes. Dzellat probably stays on the bench.

Harris is much more of a 3 than Celestine, which opens more minutes up at guard. But there's other ways minutes could open up for Tillery. It's possible Kriisa's minutes will be limited because of his defense and Tillery. Or maybe we good enough on defense that a defense first guy like Harris is more a luxury than a need.

Sounds like you agree that the rotation will be no more than 10 (in conference play). Who ends up forced out is an open question and one that may be settled by injury. I just think that we often overestimate how good freshmen will be, so a Tillery redshirt seems realistic at least. I hope he's better than Kriisa and a redshirt will sound like a dumb idea next winter.

[daveh]

Some guys are getting pushed out of minutes no matter what, it's a good problem to have as long as you can manage the locker room - which Wes seems to do well. Plus not every transfer is a hit (even coming from another big 12 team) and some freshmen (even ones rated as high as Abaev) don't always earn minutes, especially in year one. So we can wait to see what guys go before we worry about quality players getting pushed out. It's safe to assume 2/3 guys won't perform to the level of current fan expectations.

There are three guys I'm confident will average 25 plus minutes per game, Day Day, Baba and Thiam. Competition could go a lot of different ways between everyone else.

Bana/Thiam at the 4/5 leave 30 minutes to split between 4 guys (Celestine, Haynes, McKinley and Dzellat), that means one, two or maybe even three of them don't get the minutes they are hoping for. Celestine isn't really a 3, he will struggle defensively, maybe that can be overcome with the right lineup. Haynes may just be a backup 5 and could be pushed out of that role by Baba or McKinley. There's little reason to believe he can play good enough defense to be a 4. McKinley may struggle and not earn any real minutes. Dzellat probably stays on the bench.

Harris is much more of a 3 than Celestine, which opens more minutes up at guard. But there's other ways minutes could open up for Tillery. It's possible Kriisa's minutes will be limited because of his defense and Tillery. Or maybe we good enough on defense that a defense first guy like Harris is more a luxury than a need.

hasn't krissa been hurt a lot? injuries will also effect playing time - it somehow usually works itself out

[zykarious]

If that's the case then somebody else is being pushed out of playing time. Either Harris or if he slides down to SF then Celestine. Just not enough minutes to go around for 11 players.

Some guys are getting pushed out of minutes no matter what, it's a good problem to have as long as you can manage the locker room - which Wes seems to do well. Plus not every transfer is a hit (even coming from another big 12 team) and some freshmen (even ones rated as high as Abaev) don't always earn minutes, especially in year one. So we can wait to see what guys go before we worry about quality players getting pushed out. It's safe to assume 2/3 guys won't perform to the level of current fan expectations.

There are three guys I'm confident will average 25 plus minutes per game, Day Day, Baba and Thiam. Competition could go a lot of different ways between everyone else.

Bana/Thiam at the 4/5 leave 30 minutes to split between 4 guys (Celestine, Haynes, McKinley and Dzellat), that means one, two or maybe even three of them don't get the minutes they are hoping for. Celestine isn't really a 3, he will struggle defensively, maybe that can be overcome with the right lineup. Haynes may just be a backup 5 and could be pushed out of that role by Baba or McKinley. There's little reason to believe he can play good enough defense to be a 4. McKinley may struggle and not earn any real minutes. Dzellat probably stays on the bench.

Harris is much more of a 3 than Celestine, which opens more minutes up at guard. But there's other ways minutes could open up for Tillery. It's possible Kriisa's minutes will be limited because of his defense and Tillery. Or maybe we good enough on defense that a defense first guy like Harris is more a luxury than a need.

[daveh]

If that's the case then somebody else is being pushed out of playing time. Either Harris or if he slides down to SF then Celestine. Just not enough minutes to go around for 11 players.

its called competiton - guys pushing each other - no mumbo jumbo stats on this, but let the best man get the most minutes