Big 12 in 2016

[Lobot]

OU will apparently sit tight and let the pressure mount on other school. They want to expand but bows not the time apparently. Getting most of this from Flugaur.

I'll add that this is Red River weekend in Dallas which could result in some interesting comments from Boren and Fenves. I could possibly be at the Texas State Fair tomorrow and I'm going to wear UC gear and see if I can't talk to some of the fans on the street, if there are any while the game is going on. ( the fair is dead during the actual game).

[longtimefan]

I will say that playing this out in public was completely ridiculous and has hurt the image of the Big 12. I really assumed that after hiring professional outside firms to check out the candidates that they would have done their homework and would have announced the new teams on July 17. Because they didn't do that, there have been 3 months of badmouthing the expansion candidates (nobody is worthy, which is BS) and hurt the image of the expansion candidates and the league as a whole. Had they acted on July 17 they would be in a lot stronger position today. Not saying they should have stabbed another conference in the back like the ACC did, but they should have been decisive from the beginning, and the fact that they weren't has hurt the reputation of the conference far worse than any supposed watering down from adding new teams.

The Big 12 still has a chance to survive, but they have to start that now by expanding and then rebuilding what they have. If Oklahoma and Texas truly think they can do better they are mistaken; they can't. Wherever they would end up they would simply be a conference member, not The Conference Member as they believe they are now. Neither fan base would be very happy for very long. Honestly, the only future for Texas outside the Big 12 is to go independent; the other conferences are too proud and too established to tolerate their nonsense.

[coach]

I wouldn't bet on Nebraska coming back. This is just more speculation, but probably as reliable as any other stuff we're hearing. The people who really know aren't leaking anything. We just have to keep waiting. If the Big 12 is as messed up as all these supposed experts speculate, is it even worth joining?

I think that rumor was later attributed to someone who completely made it up to illustrate a point on the meaninglessness of all this speculation.

[richard k.]

I wouldn't bet on Nebraska coming back. This is just more speculation, but probably as reliable as any other stuff we're hearing. The people who really know aren't leaking anything. We just have to keep waiting. If the Big 12 is as messed up as all these supposed experts speculate, is it even worth joining?

I have little interest in joining the Big 12, BUT if the offer comes you MUST accept it, if for no other reasons than the money and the positioning of being inside the P5 if/when further realignment occurs. The conference itself isn't much as Texas A&M, Colorado, Missouri, and Nebraska decided, with Texas trying to run it for its own purposes, everyone else be damned.

[longtimefan]

I wouldn't bet on Nebraska coming back. This is just more speculation, but probably as reliable as any other stuff we're hearing. The people who really know aren't leaking anything. We just have to keep waiting. If the Big 12 is as messed up as all these supposed experts speculate, is it even worth joining?

[blackattack]

Well, whatever ESPN wants, they will get. They will broker a deal to get what they want. If they want UT and OK to leave prior to the GOR, they will find a way to make it happen. History is repeating itself here from what we learned with the Big East. Would ESPN allow Texas to form a 20- team league? http://www.metro.us/sports/big-12-ex...NStsobQvwnWQ2/

With each passing day these stories get more and more bizarre. I just read the article at the above link and here's a direct quote:

"The issue for Texas is revenue; if they join the Pac 12 they don't make more than they are now [and] they don't view the SEC or Big 10 as an option ... So the only route for Texas to go is to build something different, not new, but different ... I believe Nebraska wants to return to the Big 12 because multiple sources from different businesses hv said they are exploring it and Texas and Nebraska are not the enemies people made them out to be."

I can believe the first part of this quote about Texas not wanting to join another P5 (for obvious reasons not the least of which is loss of power and money).
But the second part of this quote about Nebraska wanting to come back and link up with Texas??.............if that's true then hades has offically frozen over.

[Lobot]

FOX doesn't think expansion is the best option for the Big 12. (very last line) http://www.sportsbusinessdaily.com/D.../Horowitz.aspx

[bearcatbret]

Well, whatever ESPN wants, they will get. They will broker a deal to get what they want. If they want UT and OK to leave prior to the GOR, they will find a way to make it happen. History is repeating itself here from what we learned with the Big East. Would ESPN allow Texas to form a 20- team league? http://www.metro.us/sports/big-12-ex...NStsobQvwnWQ2/

[red_n_black_attack]

I followed the Flugaur tweets yesterday and am not buying it. Considering the source is an "OU contact", this only benefits the 3-4 schools moving on. The conference bylaws require 8 votes (80%) to disband conference and void GOR. There is no incentive for ISU, KSU, WVU, and the others that won't get a soft landing. This is the UT/OU dream!

The only way this works is if a new media deal is signed, the conference expands and the money is there. Sorry, I don't see the money being there. The networks have every bit of better programs in higher media areas than the bottom of the Big 12 isn't going to draw that kind of money to leave what they have. The AAC is making around 10% of current Big 12. Why would the networks pay them OU/UT money for 10-15 years beyond current deal without OU/UT? The only way this works is some sort of marriage between AAC and Big 12 leftovers where the networks say they were under paying for AAC all the time any way...not happening.

I truly believe the OU sources gave this info to Greg and the OU sources want this outcome. It is good reporting by Greg. I can see why he sat on this for two weeks. On the other hand, the make believe OU sources could be providing the info he wants to see the Big Ten gain KU and OU.

[blackattack]

at this point i think this is nothing more than expansion theater. If b12 really wanted to expand they would have done it by now.
my suspicion is they are dragging it out to get a few more $$ out of the tv networks. In other words, if they add 2 teams the league gets a set amount, so instead use the threat (without actually doing it) of expansion to weedle some more money out of the tv networks and call it a day.
^^^^Agree with you on this. That's been my contention from the beginning.

i do think there is a good chance the whole league folds. Its' not out of the realm that ut and ou bolt, and the whole house of cards collapses.
^^^^ i don't know what to think about this. The football programs at both UT and OU have been on a downward trend in recent years. They've lost some of the national respect they once had both on the field and in recruiting circles. The rise of programs like TCU and Baylor, and Texas A&M leaving for the SEC has hurt UT far more than they'll ever admit. Texas A&M especially is able now to get involved with the same kids that UT does. That has to be a real punch in the gut for UT. So if UT and OU abandon the Big12 they will essentially be leaving the frying pan for the fire........no matter which P5 they go to they're going to take their lumps from schools like ohio state, mich, wisconsin, alabama, lsu, florida, etc, etc. And if they leave before the GOR is up they take a big hit financially.

[Illuminerdski]

Is it happening!?! No... Bummer. 2017 then? 2018?

[longtimefan]

I'll say again Flugaur likes to pat himself on the back and tell everybody he was right about such and such. The truth is he has been wrong on just about everything he has predicted for the last year or so. With the amount of stuff he throws out there he has to hit something once in a while. I still think he is just making educated guesses just like the rest of us, and whatever sources he claims to have are not much better than that. The only ones who know for sure aren't saying anything.

[coach]

It's really kind of hard to say as if you look at all the critical info. it's really not from anyone other than third parties. It's highly, highly unlikely texas and ok could bolt early for anything other than an astronomical cost. Those grant of rights are way to difficult to break, and the left behind teams would not let them walk as the alternatives are not likely to be as rich. However, i still have a hard time seeing either of these two leaving their domains if they have been damaged. It will be interesting to see who wins the game this week. Probably be more talk about the conference and Charlie Strong's future than the game. Sad state of affairs in college sports anymore.

[bearcated]

At this point I think this is nothing more than expansion theater. If B12 really wanted to expand they would have done it by now.

My suspicion is they are dragging it out to get a few more $$ out of the TV networks. In other words, if they add 2 teams the league gets a set amount, so instead use the threat (without actually doing it) of expansion to weedle some more money out of the TV networks and call it a day.

I do think there is a good chance the whole league folds. Its' not out of the realm that UT and OU bolt, and the whole house of cards collapses.

[blackattack]

To Summarize what Flugaur was saying today... OU / UT / KU and an unknown fourth school will move to one of the other existing P5 conferences and the remaining schools (6 or less?) will negotiate a new GOR and new deal with Fox/ESPN and one would have to assume add replacement schools, how many was never mentioned and would depend on who all gets out. He felt this would happen in 2 years and it would be agreed by the schools leaving, and those left behind, to end the current GOR so the remaining schools can negotiate a new deal and hopefully keep P5 status, but officially the lowest of the P5s..... trully becoming the new BigEast of the Power conferences. That was my interpretation...... Of course the Dude of WV has already tweeted out that it is all fiction and that this could never happen. At this point, how many of us in the AAC care. The AAC as it consists right now is turning into a very descent football conference, easily the strongest outside P5 and if Big12 loses OU / UT would rival the left overs.

Obviously my preference is for the Big12 to expand and for UC to be included in that expansion. But I'm not gonna lie, I would love to see the day come when Texas is a member of a different P5 conference (say the B1G or ACC) and they're forced to get out of their comfort zone and leave the friendly confines of the state of Texas (& Oklahoma), and have to fly all over the country into freezing cold weather venues in November and December. I would get great satisfaction out of watching that happen to a school that has always had the added benefit of being able to take a 3-4 hour bus ride to most of their conference venues. And in addition to that, having to live within the same rules as everyone else in the conference. Now that would be fun to watch.........but I don't think it will ever happen. Texas is arrogant for sure, but they're not that stupid to let that happen.