Bubble Watch / Bracketology

[Lobot]

The Athletic folks have us listed in the next four out category going into today. They had a conversation with Charles McClelland (no relation to the RB), who is the current Selection Committee Chair. Somewhere in a different interview, UC came up specifically and our sub .500 conference record was mentioned as a reason why we would not get in currently. ($)

https://theathletic.com/5293192/2024...es-mcclelland/

[Carthage World]

We surprisingly jumped 1 spot in NET overnight from #45 to #44 despite suffering a 18-point loss.

Our home win over TCU is now Q1 (for the time being) with the Horned Frogs rising to #30, which gives us a 4-7 Q1 record.

Next weekend's game against Kansas State would currently be Q2 for us considering the Wildcats rose to #73 after their win over BYU yesterday. KSU has WVU at home Monday evening which could give them an opportunity to boost their ranking more with a sizable victory.

We need to go 3-1 over these last two weeks just to re-enter the bubble conversation before the Big 12 tourney, but we aren't as "out of it" as yesterday's loss may make it seem.

[sedz]

USF is going to be a really interesting case if they don't win the AAC tournament. They played a very unbalanced conference schedule, by far the easiest. Four of the five teams they played twice are at the bottom of the standings (UTSA, Temple, Tulsa, Rice). The two best teams they only played at home (FAU, SMU). So despite going 17-1 in the league (if they beat Tulsa tomorrow), they will only have a single Q1 win. But they have two Q4 losses and their net ranking is all the way down at #73. They're in the AP Top 25 but I don't think they get an at-large.

[D.A.H.]

USF is going to be a really interesting case if they don't win the AAC tournament. They played a very unbalanced conference schedule, by far the easiest. Four of the five teams they played twice are at the bottom of the standings (UTSA, Temple, Tulsa, Rice). The two best teams they only played at home (FAU, SMU). So despite going 17-1 in the league (if they beat Tulsa tomorrow), they will only have a single Q1 win. But they have two Q4 losses and their net ranking is all the way down at #73. They're in the AP Top 25 but I don't think they get an at-large.

i agree. as much as the committee talks about metrics, USF ain't got many good ones going for it.

[GoBearcats31]

The consensus among bracket folks is that a win over Kansas would not do a ton for UC and there are still some big holes in the resume.

But I also don't think Wednesday opinions on Twitter accounted for the jump UC would make in the metrics (though a human can slight UC for KU's injuries in a way the computers cannot) - so they could be jumping back into the bubble picture on many updates today.

Lose to Baylor, it was a nice few days. Win against Baylor, and I think people will have to start taking UC seriously. Still probably need at least one more win and make the finals, but would be fun to be in the discussion again.

Then again, I'm trying to brace myself for UC to become the poster child for why the NET and other metrics are flawed (i.e., becoming one of the highest rated teams ever left out).

[Lobot]

UC got a 20th win and jumped to 34 in NET up from 43 this morning. Baylor hanging tight at 14.

[GoBearcats31]

Probably was premature for me to fire this thread up again.

But here are some teams to keep an eye on today:
- 11:30 - Richmond versus St. Joe's (R is in current projections as "AQ" but will drop out I believe with an L this week -- see UD, below)
- 12:00 - Michigan State versus Minnesota (MSU not playing well but metrics keeping them in the field -- but getting close)
- 2:30 - St. John's versus Seton Hall (SJU could be out with a loss; SHU seems in for now...)
- 2:30 - Wake versus Pitt (loser is probably out, winner still has a chance)
- 3:00 - TCU versus #1 Houston (feels like a TCU win helps UC here)
- 6:30 - Iowa versus Ohio State (loser out, winner might have a chance -- OSU more ground to make up than Iowa)
- 7:00 - Kansas State versus #7 Iowa State (bubble implications for KSU plus debatable who UC would want to face if they advance)
- 7:00 - Texas A&M versus Ole Miss (A&M is right on the bubble - loss would be big)
- 7:30 - #24 Dayton versus Duquesne (bubble teams want to see Dayton run the table)
- 9:30 - Villanova versus #10 Marquette (Nova needs the W but MU will be w/o its best player so a win may not move the needle a ton)
- 9:30 - Virginia versus Boston College (Mason Madsen could help bubble teams by taking out UVA, who is possibly in for now)
- 11:30 - New Mexico versus Boise State (huge game for New Mexico, who may not be able to afford an L here)
- 11:30 - Colorado versus Utah (CU is right there - loss and they could fall out; Utah and Gabe Madsen slightly bubbly)

[Carthage World]

Probably was premature for me to fire this thread up again.

But here are some teams to keep an eye on today:
- 11:30 - Richmond versus St. Joe's (R is in current projections as "AQ" but will drop out I believe with an L this week -- see UD, below)
- 12:00 - Michigan State versus Minnesota (MSU not playing well but metrics keeping them in the field -- but getting close)
- 2:30 - St. John's versus Seton Hall (SJU could be out with a loss; SHU seems in for now...)
- 2:30 - Wake versus Pitt (loser is probably out, winner still has a chance)
- 3:00 - TCU versus #1 Houston (feels like a TCU win helps UC here)
- 6:30 - Iowa versus Ohio State (loser out, winner might have a chance -- OSU more ground to make up than Iowa)
- 7:00 - Kansas State versus #7 Iowa State (bubble implications for KSU plus debatable who UC would want to face if they advance)
- 7:00 - Texas A&M versus Ole Miss (A&M is right on the bubble - loss would be big)
- 7:30 - #24 Dayton versus Duquesne (bubble teams want to see Dayton run the table)
- 9:30 - Villanova versus #10 Marquette (Nova needs the W but MU will be w/o its best player so a win may not move the needle a ton)
- 9:30 - Virginia versus Boston College (Mason Madsen could help bubble teams by taking out UVA, who is possibly in for now)
- 11:30 - New Mexico versus Boise State (huge game for New Mexico, who may not be able to afford an L here)
- 11:30 - Colorado versus Utah (CU is right there - loss and they could fall out; Utah and Gabe Madsen slightly bubbly)

Great update.

Although they don't play until tomorrow, we also want Florida Atlantic to run the table in the AAC, just to ensure that no bid stealers emerge from that conference as well.

[sedz]

We're back in the field in Torvik's automated bracketology algorithm. So the silicon chips are impressed with our Kansas win at least.

[bearcatbret]

MSU down by 2 at the half against MINN. UConn up 1 over x at the half.

[GoBearcats31]

MSU down by 2 at the half against MINN. UConn up 1 over x at the half.

Michigan State has an extremely unimpressive resume -- but really good metrics, so they are near a lock. But if they lose to Minnesota, I would send them down I-75 to Dayton for the First Four.

[sedz]

Richmond goes down to St Joes, probably knocking them out.

[GoBearcats31]

Richmond goes down to St Joes, probably knocking them out.

Gooooo Dayton Flyers

[bearcatbret]

MSU wins probably knocking Minnesota to the NIT. UNC blew out FSU sending FSU to the NIT.

[GoBearcats31]

St. John's up 9 versus Seton Hall -- seemed like SHU was probably in and SJU would be out with a loss. Needless to say, huge for Rick Pitino's squad if they can hold on. But Seton Hall shouldn't be sitting comfortably at all -- best case scenario: Dayton. Came into the game at #56 in KenPom and 64 in the NET. They'd have to be one of the lower NET teams to get in if they fall today and still dance.

Pitt up 15 on Wake. Pitt could slide into the field (they began in Dayton last year, could be there this year). Wake is done with an L.