Bubble Watch / Bracketology

[sedz]

I can't track down all the blogs that are posting high quality, but under the radar brackets.

Bracketologist rankings are here: http://www.bracketmatrix.com/rankings.html
Clicking the blue link will take you to each blog. Most update 1-3 times a week, but 131sports updates daily.

Or you can look at the main page: http://www.bracketmatrix.com
It usually updates daily - sometimes midday, sometimes in the evening. ESPN and CBS are listed first, followed by the most recently updated brackets. 131 comes first alphabetically so it's conveniently right next to ESPN and CBS most of the time.

[sedz]

TCU at Texas Tech - 9:00, ESPN2

I'll be rooting for TCU, hoping they can move into the top 30 and give us another Q1 win. Likewise, UCF at West Virginia is a big game for our resume, as UCF needs to stay in the top 75.

[GoBearcats31]

Lots of bracketology updates come out on Tuesday. I can't track down all the blogs that are posting high quality, but under the radar brackets. But here are some new updates:

CBS - UC is the first team out https://www.cbssports.com/college-ba.../bracketology/
USA Today - UC is the last team in, playing in Dayton (with a chance to play in...wait for it...Spokane!) https://www.usatoday.com/story/sport...e/72654887007/
Bracketville - UC is the first team out https://bracketville.wordpress.com/bracketology/
ESPN - UC is the third team out https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/st...ld-predictions

Tuesday updates from a couple of the top ranked bracketologists:

https://131sports.com/2024/02/20/1-3...bruary-20th-9/
UC second team out (same place where they have been, as sedz has noted)

https://jakelikersbracketology.wordpress.com/
UC first team out

UC is 1-2 spots ahead of Villanova on each, several spots below Butler on each. May pull for Butler tonight at Villanova. While it could be interesting to get a cluster in the Big East (Seton Hall is also very bubbly) by virtue of Butler slipping towards the bubble, I am leaning against Villanova since the Wildcats have extremely solid NET and KenPom ratings in the 30s (higher than UC) despite generally being on the outside looking in.

[sedz]

UC is 1-2 spots ahead of Villanova on each, several spots below Butler on each. May pull for Butler tonight at Villanova. While it could be interesting to get a cluster in the Big East (Seton Hall is also very bubbly) by virtue of Butler slipping towards the bubble, I am leaning against Villanova since the Wildcats have extremely solid NET and KenPom ratings in the 30s (higher than UC) despite generally being on the outside looking in.

Usually I root for the home team in these double bubble games so no Q1 wins are handed out. Could go either way with this one.

[GoBearcats31]

Notable Tuesday results:

- #25 BYU tops #11 Baylor, strengthening UC's early January win
- #23 Texas Tech overcomes a 10 point deficit late at home to beat TCU 82-81 -- a TCU win probably could have helped UC in terms of them sneaking back towards Q1 win but the TTU win is strengthened too
- Villanova wins by 10 at home over Butler in a double bubble; Butler was in a better position to begin the day but has now dropped 4/5 and is just 7-9 in the Big East, while Villanova improved to 9-8 in top two quads
- UCF lost by 10 at WVU and is barely hanging in the NET Top 75 (UC's Q2 home win and Q1 road will drop if/when UCF slips to 76 or lower)
- Texas A&M suffered a bad 7 point home loss to .500 Arkansas, moving A&M to 15-11 (3 straight Ls); Aggies are a very solid 6-5 versus Q1 but a wild 2-4 versus Q3
- Wake Forest hammered Pitt 91-58, with Wake inching closer to the field while Pitt's recent efforts to crawl towards the bubble were badly hurt
- Iowa won by 7 at Michigan State to continue to trend in the right direction and get closer to the bubble

[sedz]

Wake Forest moved up 14 spots in the NET all the way to 26 after their blowout win. I've mentioned a couple times that teams with NET rankings in the 30s have missed the field, but I don't know if any top 30 team has missed. Gonzaga is in a similar situation at #22. Wake is a tale of two teams - at home they're 14-0 with several blowout wins and their only Q1 win over #29 Florida. Away from home they're just 1-9 against quality opponents. They have a huge home opportunity against Duke this Saturday to pick up what would be their flagship win. Their only opportunity for a Q1 road win is at VT the following weekend.

San Francisco was another fringy bubble team trending in the right direction, and they were competitive at St Mary's last night but fell short. If they had won that game and then beaten Gonzaga at home, they could have been in the conversation. But now they are likely eliminated.

Nevada avoided another bad loss to Wyoming. They dropped the Q3 road game a month ago but won the return game by 18.

Iowa picked up their first two Q1 wins of the season in the last two games. They have 3 more Q1 opportunities in their final 4 games, including a pair against Illinois. The Hawkeyes are very much alive.

[GoBearcats31]

I've mentioned a couple times that teams with NET rankings in the 30s have missed the field, but I don't know if any top 30 team has missed.

I think these are the highest rated teams in NET history to miss the Tournament

33 NC State (2019)
35 Clemson (2019)
38 Texas (2019)
40 Oklahoma (2022)
40 Rutgers (2023)

Rutgers got in the 2022 NCAA Tournament at #77, the lowest NET to make it

[GoBearcats31]

Some Wednesday games of note:

Oklahoma State at Cincinnati, 7:00 – ESPN+
Providence at Xavier, 8:00 – CBSSN (unfortunately, root for X to avoid giving PC a Q1 road win)
Nebraska at Indiana, 8:30 – BTN (Nebraska 1-7 on the road - 1-8 with a Q2 loss would not help their cause)
Ole Miss at Mississippi State, 9:00 – ESPN2 (maybe take the home team)
Colorado State at New Mexico, 10:00 - CBSSN

There are numerous games involving solid mid-majors who are in the picture but not sure if any could get in as an at-large selection. Also Memphis and St. John’s, both of which seemed to have fallen off the bubble, are in action tonight as well.

Bonus:
Clemson at Georgia Tech, 7:00 – ACC (GT seeking its fourth Q1 win to perhaps help UC resume)

[sedz]

I think these are the highest rated teams in NET history to miss the Tournament

33 NC State (2019)
35 Clemson (2019)
38 Texas (2019)
40 Oklahoma (2022)
40 Rutgers (2023)

Rutgers got in the 2022 NCAA Tournament at #77, the lowest NET to make it

A few changes:
38 North Texas (2023)
39 Oklahoma (2022)
40 Xavier (2022)

I need to retract my dismissal of NET ranking as an important factor. While teams in the 30s have missed the cut, it's very rare. In the past few years, every team ranked 37 or better has made the field. Prior to that was the cancelled 2020 tourney and 2019 was the first year using NET, so the teams ranked 33 and 35 that missed that year could be considered outliers (but no team has ever missed the cut with a ranking of 32 or better).

Right now our NET ranking is 39, which puts us right near the theoretical cut line but behind bubble teams Gonzaga, Wake Forest, and Villanova (and even SMU).

On the other end, Providence, Butler, Iowa, Seton Hall, and Ole Miss have NET rankings in the 60s. It's rare but not impossible for those teams to make the field:

77 Rutgers (2022)
72 Wichita St (2021)
70 Michigan St (2021)
67 Pitt (2023)
66 Arizona St (2023)

[sedz]

Some Wednesday games of note:

Oklahoma State at Cincinnati, 7:00 – ESPN+
Providence at Xavier, 8:00 – CBSSN (unfortunately, root for X to avoid giving PC a Q1 road win)
Nebraska at Indiana, 8:30 – BTN (Nebraska 1-7 on the road - 1-8 with a Q2 loss would not help their cause)
Ole Miss at Mississippi State, 9:00 – ESPN2 (maybe take the home team)
Colorado State at New Mexico, 10:00 - CBSSN

There are numerous games involving solid mid-majors who are in the picture but not sure if any could get in as an at-large selection. Also Memphis and St. John’s, both of which seemed to have fallen off the bubble, are in action tonight as well.

Bonus:
Clemson at Georgia Tech, 7:00 – ACC (GT seeking its fourth Q1 win to perhaps help UC resume)

One more:
Belmont at Drake, 8:00 – ESPN+

Drake (NET 44) is sneaking up to the bubble and has a couple more quality games left. If they sweep those they'll be 7-2 in Q1/2 (with 3 bad losses). Belmont won the first matchup by 22.

[Carthage World]

Here is UCF's (NET #73) remaining schedule:

Texas Tech
@Oklahoma St
Iowa State
Houston
@TCU

If they go at least 2-3 and don't get blown out in any game, I'd like their chances of staying in the top 75. However, it appears to be a very tall task at the moment.

[Carthage World]

Kansas State (NET #81) has the following games left:

BYU
West Virginia
@Cincinnati
@Kansas
Iowa State

We obviously need to beat them on 3/2 but otherwise we need to cheer for them in every remaining game for them to finish top 75.

I'm afraid they may need 3 more wins to hit that mark.

[Carthage World]

Our NET ranking dropped 6 spots from #39 to #45 overnight.

We're going to have to win an extra Q1 game to atone for the bad loss. Winning at TCU or Houston over our next two games would give us a glimmer hope again.

[sedz]

We're off the board entirely in today's 131sports bracketology update. Not even in the next four out. James Madison, Drake, and Princeton are ahead of us.

[Lobot]

I'm not in the mood to do the heavy lifting on the stats tonight but I think it's safe to say regardless of the rest of the season, we need a couple of Q1 wins in KC to have a shot at the NCAAs

Seeing as how this team seems to play better on the road, we might get that depending on the Big XII tournament draw.