Bubble Watch / Bracketology

[GoBearcats31]

Utah beats UCLA on wild last possession. Finger roll layup hits the top of the backboard, teammate putback good with 0.2. 70-69.

[GoBearcats31]

Second team out here https://x.com/t3bracketology/status/...429-7Zsp1zj4Tg

I think we’ll see UC barely in (Dayton) or barely out in most early week brackets.

[GoBearcats31]

SMU could've named the score in that game. Memphis is nowhere near the same team that we knew from the past few seasons in the AAC.

Wouldn't be surprised to see SMU jump us in the NET rankings tomorrow.

Yep. SMU 34, UC 37.

[sedz]

The top ranked bracketologist still has us as the second team out, sandwiched between Utah and Seton Hall.

His last four in are Ole Miss, Nevada, Providence, Gonzaga.

[Cyclone792]

From my point of view, we're on the outside looking in and we need to step up and play our way in. It seems like Saturday's win at UCF didn't move the needle much. Despite being a road Q1 win, it did come against a team that's not making the tournament as an at-large so there's probably a cap on how much that win helps.

Bid thieves seem to happen every year, and I expect more of the same. Dayton is a tourney lock, but there are a number of other A-10 teams capable of winning that conference tournament and knocking Dayton out. Same with Florida Atlantic and St. Mary's in their conferences. Indiana State and Grand Canyon also become bubble teams too if they can't take care of their business. To be safe, we need to climb our way into the "last 4 bye" picture with anticipation that bid thieves are going to eat into the "last 4 in" group.

I'm looking at the schedule trying to map out a path, and I think we need at least five more wins (including reaching the Thursday quarterfinals in the Big 12 tournament). The easiest path is winning the 3 home games, which we need to win, plus stealing one of the road games and winning at least one game in the B12 tournament. Winning at Houston is the one wildcard that would change the math in our favor, but it's unlikely. That leaves either at TCU or at Oklahoma. The benefit of beating TCU is we'd be 2-0 against them and would push them back toward the bubble. Either way, one more road win would be another Q1 road win against a likely tournament at-large team.

[Carthage World]

From my point of view, we're on the outside looking in and we need to step up and play our way in. It seems like Saturday's win at UCF didn't move the needle much. Despite being a road Q1 win, it did come against a team that's not making the tournament as an at-large so there's probably a cap on how much that win helps.

Bid thieves seem to happen every year, and I expect more of the same. Dayton is a tourney lock, but there are a number of other A-10 teams capable of winning that conference tournament and knocking Dayton out. Same with Florida Atlantic and St. Mary's in their conferences. Indiana State and Grand Canyon also become bubble teams too if they can't take care of their business. To be safe, we need to climb our way into the "last 4 bye" picture with anticipation that bid thieves are going to eat into the "last 4 in" group.

I'm looking at the schedule trying to map out a path, and I think we need at least five more wins (including reaching the Thursday quarterfinals in the Big 12 tournament). The easiest path is winning the 3 home games, which we need to win, plus stealing one of the road games and winning at least one game in the B12 tournament. Winning at Houston is the one wildcard that would change the math in our favor, but it's unlikely. That leaves either at TCU or at Oklahoma. The benefit of beating TCU is we'd be 2-0 against them and would push them back toward the bubble. Either way, one more road win would be another Q1 road win against a likely tournament at-large team.

Not much to argue with here. I think the path you laid out in the last paragraph is the bare minimum that needs to happen for us to even be 50/50 on Selection Sunday. In that scenario we'd finish with a 5-9 Q1 record and 2-2 Q2 record. We desperately need UCF to stay top 75 (currently #68) and could greatly benefit from Kansas St (#81) pulling off a few more upset wins so our home game against them can rise to Q2.

Looking at our remaining road games, TCU is 5-3 since we first met and Oklahoma is 3-5. Both games are winnable but will be equally tough.

Our NET ranking has steadily dropped over the course of Big 12 play. It was up to #24 after the BYU win and currently sits at #37. Even if we only win one more road game this regular season, winning our 3 home games by sizable margins versus barely squeaking them out could be the difference between 10 or so spots in the NET rankings. A higher NET ranking could be as good as 1 or 2 extra quality wins through the eyes of the committee.

[longtimefan]

The road win at Texas Tech looks better and better. We’re the only team to beat them in their building, Kansas lost there by 29. Couple that with the win at BYU, not sure how many bubble teams have two road wins as good as ours.

[sedz]

Not much to argue with here. I think the path you laid out in the last paragraph is the bare minimum that needs to happen for us to even be 50/50 on Selection Sunday. In that scenario we'd finish with a 5-9 Q1 record and 2-2 Q2 record. We desperately need UCF to stay top 75 (currently #68) and could greatly benefit from Kansas St (#81) pulling off a few more upset wins so our home game against them can rise to Q2.

Looking at our remaining road games, TCU is 5-3 since we first met and Oklahoma is 3-5. Both games are winnable but will be equally tough.

Our NET ranking has steadily dropped over the course of Big 12 play. It was up to #24 after the BYU win and currently sits at #37. Even if we only win one more road game this regular season, winning our 3 home games by sizable margins versus barely squeaking them out could be the difference between 10 or so spots in the NET rankings. A higher NET ranking could be as good as 1 or 2 extra quality wins through the eyes of the committee.

A quick look at bubble teams (or even seeding of top teams) from past years will show that a team's NET ranking is almost irrelevant. Q1/2 records are much more important, and things like out of conference SOS and road record are often cited as tiebreakers by the committee. Teams with NET rankings in the 70s have made the field (Rutgers was 80 a couple years ago), and teams in the 30s have missed the cut. Last year Tennessee had a NET ranking of 4 but got a 4 seed, and FAU got a 9 seed despite a NET ranking of 13. Arizona St (9 Q1/2 wins) and Pitt (three Q1 road wins) made the field with NET rankings of 66 and 67, while Rutgers (4 bad losses) and North Texas (one Q1 win) missed out despite top 40 rankings.

It's going to come down to what our resume looks like compared to other teams near the cut line, which is why we track what bubble teams are doing here. We didn't move up much because Seton Hall, Utah, and Nevada also picked up quality wins. Ole Miss, Gonzaga, and Providence avoided bad losses, which we need to do this week.

[Lobot]

Utah beats UCLA on wild last possession. Finger roll layup hits the top of the backboard, teammate putback good with 0.2. 70-69.

Margin of victory caused by an obvious flagrant 2 foul on UCLA's Mack mid game. Elbow to the throat. Ugly cheapshot. I'm sure Mick wasn't thrilled.

[swilsonsp4]

Margin of victory caused by an obvious flagrant 2 foul on UCLA's Mack mid game. Elbow to the throat. Ugly cheapshot. I'm sure Mick wasn't thrilled.

In a bit of irony, the player that received the forearm shiver to the throat was Branden Carlson, the Ute who won the game with the put-back before the horn. Carlson is Utah's leading scorer on the season.

[GoBearcats31]

Maybe we will get a Utah vs UC game in Dayton in the Gabe Madsen Cup

[GoBearcats31]

Virginia is a 9 seed on Bracket Matrix. They were 41 in NET, 53 KenPom earlier but just lost by 34 points at Virginia Tech. Already down to 65 in KenPom…Welcome back to the bubble.

[Corporateballa]

This is a fantastic thread. Thank you to everyone who did the homework for us and for taking the time to share your perspective. Extremely helpful.

[sedz]

Virginia is a 9 seed on Bracket Matrix. They were 41 in NET, 53 KenPom earlier but just lost by 34 points at Virginia Tech. Already down to 65 in KenPom…Welcome back to the bubble.

That was basically equivalent to our game at UCF, and Virginia got steamrolled while we pulled out a W.

Virginia only has two Q1 wins right now. They've got a couple of big chances left - home vs UNC and at Duke. Their resume won't be great if they drop both of those.

Edit: Virginia fell 9 spots to 50 and VT moved up 9 spots to 53. Crazy what a 34 point blowout can do.

[GoBearcats31]

Lots of bracketology updates come out on Tuesday. I can't track down all the blogs that are posting high quality, but under the radar brackets. But here are some new updates:

CBS - UC is the first team out https://www.cbssports.com/college-ba.../bracketology/
USA Today - UC is the last team in, playing in Dayton (with a chance to play in...wait for it...Spokane!) https://www.usatoday.com/story/sport...e/72654887007/
Bracketville - UC is the first team out https://bracketville.wordpress.com/bracketology/
ESPN - UC is the third team out https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/st...ld-predictions

Beating Oklahoma State on Wednesday won't move the needle much--though nothing wrong with staying afloat, as UC really cannot afford to drop a game like this (especially at home).


Also... some Tuesday bubble action. Some teams like TCU are in for now but not a sure thing, whereas teams on the other end of the spectrum like Iowa and Pitt have played well enough recently to get into the discussion. The most bubbly teams right now are Butler, Villanova, A&M, Wake, Nevada.

Butler at Villanova - 6:30, FS1
Iowa at Michigan State - 7:00, Peacock
Arkansas at Texas A&M - 7:00, ESPN
TCU at Texas Tech - 9:00, ESPN2
Pitt at Wake Forest - 9:00, ACC
San Jose State at Boise State - 10:30, FS1
Wyoming at Nevada - 11:00, CBSSN